Strong/Severe Storms Possible Tonight

| February 12, 2020 @ 6:27 am

MILD/BREEZY DAY: Today will be a mostly cloudy, mild, and breezy day for Alabama with a few passing showers; temperatures will reach the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon with a gusty south wind of 12-25 mph by afternoon. With saturated soil conditions, and many creeks and streams out of their banks, a flash flood watch remains in effect for roughly the northern half of Alabama. But, rain amounts during the day today should remain under 1/4″ inch for most communities.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT: An approaching cold front will bring a narrow band of strong to severe thunderstorms to Alabama tonight. With limited instability and weak lapse rates (due to warmer air aloft), the threat will be limited, but there will be good dynamic forcing with an upper trough lifting out of the Southwest U.S.

SPC has a “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms identified tonight for that part of Alabama north of a line from Toxey to Linden to Calera to Spring Garden… with “marginal risk” (level 1/5) down to Spanish Fort, Greenville, and Lafayette. No severe storms are expected over Southeast Alabama.

TIMING: A narrow line of storms will enter the northwest corner of the state around 8:00 tonight; it should reach Huntsville/Jasper/Tuscaloosa by 11pm… Birmingham/Gadsden by 1am… and Anniston by 2am. The storms will weaken as they push deeper into East Alabama.

THREATS: The main threat from this line of storms will come from strong, gusty winds. However, some small hail will be possible. And, a brief, isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out, but is not likely.

Keep in mind with the saturated soil conditions, it will make it easier for some trees to come down with the gusty winds associated with the line of thunderstorms tonight.

RAIN: Rain amounts of around 1/2 inch are likely with the passing line of storms tonight; some temporary flooding issues are possible.

TOMORROW: The best chance of rain during the day tomorrow will be over the southern half of the state, but severe storms are not expected there. For North and Central Alabama, clouds will linger much of the day, and temperatures will fall through the 50s with a brisk northwest wind.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday and Saturday will feature a good supply of sunshine both days with cold mornings; lows will be in the 25-32 degree range. The high Friday will be in the upper 40s, followed by mid 50s Saturday. The latest model data now suggests Sunday will be dry for the northern half of the state with high clouds; any rain should be confined to the southern quarter of Alabama. Sunday’s high will be in the low 60s.

NEXT WEEK: While a shower is possible Monday, rain seems more likely Tuesday through Wednesday as a surface front creeps into Alabama and becomes nearly stationary. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

ON THIS DATE IN 1958: Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan Alabama, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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