Periods Of Rain Today; Eyes On Laura

WET DAY: Rain is fairly widespread over the southern 2/3 of Alabama this morning, and that rain area continues to move northward. Today will be cloudy with periods of rain; many places will hold in the 70s most of the day with very little sun.

Showers will become more scattered in nature tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds as we get into sinking air on the periphery of Laura, which will be a hurricane in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Then, on Thursday, the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures potentially reaching the low 90s. This will make the air pretty unstable, and we will see a few scattered storms by mid to late afternoon. Laura will be passing well to the west over western parts of Louisiana and Arkansas; for now it looks like the main threat of isolated tornadoes will be west of Alabama… but we will need to keep a close eye on radar Thursday evening for any signs of rotation with scattered storms that develop. For now SPC has a “marginal risk” (level 1/5)_ defined for parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana Thursday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Laura will pull a very moist, tropical airmass into Alabama. The sky will feature more clouds than sun on these three days with occasional showers likely along with a few thunderstorms. Not a total wash-out, but the pattern will be pretty wet. Highs Friday and over the weekend will be in the mid to upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Not much change over the first half of the week; we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.A surface front will approach by mid-week, but most likely it won’t have enough southward push to make it through Alabama. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

LAURA BECOMES A HURRICANE LATER TODAY: Tropical Storm Laura is about 680 miles southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico with sustained winds of 65 mph. It is expected to become a hurricane later today, and the new NHC forecast puts landfall near the Sabine Pass (the Texas/Louisiana border) tomorrow night as major, category three hurricane. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana; hurricane warnings will be required by late afternoon.

Now that an inner core appears to be trying to form, conditions appear ripe for at least steady intensification, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days.

Key messages from NHC:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a hurricane late tomorrow and early Thursday. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in NHC’s 2-to-3 day track and intensity predictions. In addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura’s center along the Gulf Coast.

2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48 hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late tomorrow from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane watch is in effect. Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for a portion of that area later today.

4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding, along with small streams overflowing their banks, will be increasing Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor-to-isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday and Saturday.

CENTRAL GULF COAST: The rip current danger will remain high along the coast from Gulf Shores east to Panama City Beach through Friday; seas will settle down this weekend.

The main impact from Laura will remain west of the Alabama/Northwest Florida Gulf Coast this week.

ON THIE DATE IN 1992: After making landfall over South Florida as a devastating category five hurricane, Andrew emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, moving in the direction of the Louisiana coast. The second landfall came after midnight, about 20 miles west-southwest of Morgan City, with winds of 115 mph. Andrew weakened rapidly as it turned to the north and northeast, falling to tropical storm intensity within 10 hours. Along the Louisiana coastline, damages largely resembled those of a Category 2 hurricane. Damage was heaviest in St. Mary Parish, about 32 mi (51 km) east of where Andrew made landfall.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute show anytime on your favorite podcast app. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Instagram
Pinterest
Snapchat: spannwx

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Tags: ANC, featured, wet

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos