Moisture Levels Rising This Week; Eyes On Nicholas
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AHEAD: We will forecast a partly sunny sky across Alabama today, and a few scattered showers could form this afternoon and tonight as moisture levels begin to rise across the state. The high this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s; the average high for Birmingham on September 13 is 87.
Scattered showers will be more numerous tomorrow, and the weather will be pretty wet across the state Wednesday and Thursday with deeper tropical moisture pulled northward from Tropical Storm Nicholas to the west. Look for periods of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms both days with temperatures generally holding in the 70s because of clouds and rain.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: An upper ridge will hold over the region, with a moist airmass in place. We expect a mix of sun and clouds Friday through Sunday with scattered showers and storms on a daily basis, most active from noon to midnight. The chance of any one spot getting wet each day is 45-55 percent, and highs will be in the mid 80s, right at seasonal averages for mid-September. Humidity levels will remain fairly high over the weekend.
NEXT WEEK: The ridge holds through the week, meaning warm, humid weather will continue with the typical mix of sun and scattered showers and thunderstorms daily. Highs will be in the 80s… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
NICHOLAS: Tropical Storm Nicholas is packing winds of 60 mph this morning in the western Gulf of Mexico; the center is 45 miles southeast of the southern tip of Texas. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm today, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport this afternoon and tonight where a hurricane watch is in effect.
Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas (including Houston). Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected.
There is also the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass.
The direct impact of Nicholas will remain west of Alabama and the central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach), but the circulation around the system will bring in deeper moisture over the next few days meaning higher rain chances.
REST OF THE TROPICS: A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa later today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Too early to know if this will impact the Lesser Antilles or the U.S.
And, an area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic, east of the U.S.
ON THIS DATE IN 1979: Hurricane Frederic, was moving northward through Mobile Bay during the pre-dawn hours, after making landfall the night before on September 12. A wind gust of 145 miles per hour was measured on equipment atop the Dauphin Island Bridge. The bridge was destroyed. A wind gust of 139 mph was measured at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab before the equipment failed. A storm surge of 12 feet was observed in Gulf Shores. Nearly all structures within 200 yards of the Alabama coast were destroyed. There were two fatalities as a direct result of Frederic. Total damages were 2.3 billion dollars, making Frederic the most expensive hurricane ever to strike the United States up to that point.
ON THIS DATE IN 1988: Hurricane Gilbert smashed into the Cayman Islands, and as it headed for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico strengthened into a monster hurricane, packing winds of 175 mph. The barometric pressure at the center of Gilbert reached 888 mb, a record for any hurricane in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic Ocean until Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Gilbert covered much of the Gulf of Mexico, producing rain as far away as the Florida Keys.
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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