Active Day Ahead; Severe Storms Possible By Afternoon
ACTIVE DAY AHEAD: A compact but vigorous weather system will bring strong to severe thunderstorms to Alabama this afternoon and early tonight. SPC has now defined a “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe storms for much of the state… areas west of a line from Fort Payne to Greenville to Grove Hill. The other parts of East and South Alabama are in a “marginal risk” (level 1/5).
TIMING: Storms could become strong to severe near the Mississippi border as early as 12:00 noon, but the core threat will come from about 2:00 until 8:00 p.m. Storms will weaken over East Alabama after 8 p.m. in a more stable airmass.
THREATS: The main concern is from strong, potentially damaging straight line winds, but a couple of isolated tornadoes are possible as well. The highest tornado threat is over the western half of the state, where instability values are higher. Storms could also produce hail in spots. We should also mention gradient winds (not related to thunderstorms) will increase this afternoon, with gusts to 30/35 mph possible. A wind advisory has been issued for much of North Alabama.
RAIN: Storms will be moving along at a good clip, so flooding is not expected. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are expected over the northern half of the state, with amounts under 1/2 inch for the southern counties.
BE READY: Be sure you can hear severe weather warnings if they are needed later today. A NOAA Weather Radio is the baseline for every home and business… and be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone. Install the free ABC 33/40 Weather app. Know the safe place in your home (lowest floor, near the center of the house, away from windows), and have helmets for everyone there. If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter or site built structure that is available, how to get there quickly, and have transportation.
Hopefully we will get though the event with no major problems, but you have to be ready in case you fall in a tornado warning polygon.
REST OF THE WEEK: Dry weather returns tomorrow through Friday with sunny days and fair nights… the high tomorrow will be in the upper 60s, followed by mid 70s Thursday and Friday.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Rain returns to the state, but the latest model data suggests a decent part of the day Saturday will be dry. Clouds will increase, and with a few spotty showers we expect a high in the upper 60s. Sunday will be a cloudy day with periods of rain (not an “all day rain”) along with a high in the mid 60s. No risk of severe storms over the weekend, and probably very little thunder with basically no surface based instability.
NEXT WEEK: Showers could linger into the day Monday, but at this point it looks like the rain will be over by trick or treat time Monday night. Mid-week looks dry, followed by another chance of rain by Thursday night or Friday. Highs will be in the 70s through much of the week… See the daily Weather Briefing video for maps, graphics, and more details.
TROPICS: NHC is monitoring a couple of disturbances in the Atlantic, well east of the U.S. They have some potential for development, but are expected to remain far from land. The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet.
ON THIS DATE IN 1921: A devastating category 3 hurricane struck near Tarpon Springs, Florida, killing 8 people. It was the most destructive hurricane in the Tampa Bay Area since 1848. A storm surge of up to 11 feet damaged and destroyed a significant amount of the structures along coastal locations from Pasco county south through southwest Florida. The highest storm surge inundated areas in downtown Tampa and Tarpon Springs. Many vessels, like the steamer “Favorite”, and the “Thomas B. Garland” were smashed against the docks by the waves.
ON THIS DATE IN 2017: The high temperature in Denver, Colorado was 84 degrees. By the morning hours on the 27th, the temperature fell to 13 degrees, a 71-degree change.
BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
Look for the next Weather Briefing video here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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