Potential For Light Rain Tonight/Tomorrow, Then Much Cooler

BIG CHANGES AHEAD: A cold front is approaching Alabama; we note a large area of rain ahead of the front this morning over parts of West Tennessee and the Mississippi Delta. We actually have a few sprinkles over the northwest corner of our state just before sunrise. Today will be mostly cloudy, and we will bring in the chance of light rain for the northwest counties this afternoon as the front gets closer. The high today will be in the low 80s for most communities; the average high for Birmingham on October 5 is 80.

Showers are possible statewide tonight and tomorrow as the front moves through. Rain amounts will be light, generally under 1/4″ for most places. Not enough to be really beneficial, but at least the dust will be settled for some communities. We note today will be the 19th consecutive day with no rain for Birmingham and much of the state.

COOL WEEKEND: The coolest air so far this season will roll into the Deep South following the front over the weekend. Highs drop into the 60s over the northern half of the state, with lows well down in the 40s by daybreak Sunday. Even South Alabama will see lows in the 48-52 degree range. The air will be dry, and we expect a good supply of sunshine both days. Saturday will feature a brisk north wind of 10-20 mph.

NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues for the first half of the week. Monday morning will feature lows in the 40s over the northern half of the state, then we trend warmer with highs back in the 75-80 degree range for the rest of the week. Models suggest a chance of rain for South Alabama Thursday, and statewide Thursday night and Friday… too early to know how much rain will fall. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tomorrow night, a few widely scattered showers are possible. Otherwise mostly cloudy with temperatures falling through the 60s with a fairly stiff north breeze.

Saturday, Alabama will be in College Station to take on Texas A&M (2:30p CT kickoff). About 72 degrees at kickoff with a mostly sunny sky. It will be a very pleasant afternoon.

UAB will host USF Saturday at Protective Stadium in downtown Birmingham (3:00p CT kickoff). The sky will be sunny with temperatures falling from near 67 at kickoff, into low 60s by the final whistle. The afternoon will be breezy with a north wind of 10-20 mph.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Philippe remains disorganized with winds of only 40 mph. The broad circulation center is about 500 miles south of Bermuda, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. Philippe will move near Bermuda tomorrow… after that it becomes post-tropical and will move into the coast of Maine over the weekend.

Elsewhere, a low-latitude tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa tomorrow. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible as it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. NHC gives it a 30 percent of development over the next seven days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1864: A tropical cyclone hit India near Calcutta, devastating the city and killing about 60,000 people.

ON THIS DATE IN 1972: Tropical Storm Joanne, earlier a hurricane, moved across the Baja California peninsula and came ashore in western Mexico south of Ajo. The storm brought heavy rain and flooding to much of Arizona. This storm is the first documented tropical storm to reach Arizona, with its cyclonic circulation intact. Over 5 inches of rain was reported on the Mogollon rim southeast of Flagstaff.

Look for the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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