Scattered Showers Tonight; Dry Weekend

COLD FRONT APPROACHING: The sky is mostly cloudy across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. We will maintain the chance of a few scattered showers tonight as a cold front passes thorough the state, but with limited moisture and dynamic support, rain amounts will be under 1/10 of an inch for most places.

The sky becomes mostly sunny tomorrow with a high in the 60s over North Alabama, with 70s to the south. Sunday will be another sunny day with highs in the 65-75 degree range across the state.

NEXT WEEK: Global models continue to slow down the system that will impact our state early next week. Monday looks like a mild, dry day with a high in the 70s. Tt now looks like the bulk of the event will come Monday night into Tuesday.

This will be the most dynamic weather system we have experienced since the spring, and severe storms are possible west of Alabama Monday and Monday night. SPC has defined a risk from East Texas to South Mississippi.

However, for now, SPC has not put any part of Alabama in a formal severe weather risk on Tuesday. Trends are toward a weaker surface low and very limited surface based instability, which will keep the chance of severe storms fairly low. However, we need to get within the 60 hour window (when we can see high resolution, convectional allowing model data) before we can have great certainty about the details of how this one plays out. Just keep an eye on forecast updates over the weekend.

On the positive side, beneficial rain is likely Tuesday and Tuesday night, with amounts of 1-2 inches expected statewide. Drier air returns Tuesday night, and Wednesday will be a dry, breezy, cooler day with a high in the 50s.

THANKSGIVING/BLACK FRIDAY/IRON BOWL SATURDAY: Thanksgiving Day will be cool and dry with a good supply of sunshine. We start the day in the 35-45 degree range… the high will be in the 50s. Beyond that, forecast confidence drops. The next wave will likely bring rain back to the state either Friday or Saturday. The American GFS model suggests a rainy day Friday, followed by dry, cool weather for the Iron Bowl (Alabama at Auburn on Saturday November 25). However, the reliable European global model holds the rain off until Saturday. Once we get the Tuesday system out of here we will have a high confidence look at that weekend.

See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: Potential Tropical Cyclone 22 is in the Caribbean, but the chance for the system to become a tropical cyclone continues to decrease and in fact now appears unlikely due to a combination of the system’s broad structure, the terrain of the Greater Antilles, strong southwesterly shear, and mid-level dry air. The NHC forecast still shows the possibility, albeit small, for the system to become a tropical storm in 24-36 hours mainly based on continuity. After that, the system should become extratropical by 48 hours and absorbed by a front by 60 hours. Advisories on this system could be discontinued at any time if there is no longer a risk of tropical-storm-force winds within the tropical storm watch areas.

Despite the decreasing chance of tropical cyclone formation, there is high confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a distinct and serious threat across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas as high as 16 inches, are forecast in these areas and are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet; the hurricane season ends at the end of this month.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school playoff games tonight across Alabama, the sky will be mostly cloudy, and a few widely scattered showers can’t be ruled out. Nothing widespread, and many stadiums will be dry. Temperatures will fall slowly through the 60s.

Tomorrow, Alabama hosts Chattanooga at Bryant-Denny Stadium (11a CT kickoff)… after some early morning clouds, the sky should be mostly sunny during the game with temperatures rising from near 64 at kickoff to 68 degrees by the final whistle.

UAB will host Temple at Protective Stadium in Birmingham (2p CT kickoff)… it will be a sunny afternoon with temperatures hovering in the mid to upper 60s.

And, Auburn will host New Mexico State at Jordan-Hare Stadium (3p CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny. Expect a kickoff temperature near 67 degrees, falling into the low 60s by the end of the game.

ON THIS DATE IN 1927: A tornado (at times to 260 yards wide) cut a seventeen-mile path through Alexandria, Virginia across the District of Columbia from the Navy yard to Benning Rd. & 19th St. NE and Northeast to East Riverdale, Maryland. This storm injured 31 people. The tornado struck the Naval Air Station where a wind gust of 93 mph was recorded.

Look for my next video briefing here by 6:00 a.m. Monday… enjoy the weekend!

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