Cool, Generally Dry Weather For Alabama Through The Weekend

QUIET PATTERN: An upper low in the base of a long wave trough is rotating through North Alabama early this morning; there could be a sprinkle or two, but otherwise today will be a dry day with morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine. The high will be in the 50s for most of the state… some in South Alabama could see low 60s. We note the average high for Birmingham on November 22 is 63.

Thanksgiving Day tomorrow will be cool and dry with a partly to mostly sunny sky… after a low in the 30s the high will be in the 56-64 degree range across the state. Clouds will increase late in the day, and a feature in the northern Gulf of Mexico could bring some scattered light rain to the southern counties of Alabama tomorrow night into Friday morning. Rain amounts will be light and spotty with limited moisture. Otherwise, Friday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 50s over North Alabama, with 60s to the south.

THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: Cool, dry weather continues over the weekend. The sky will be mostly sunny Saturday; some clouds will move in on Sunday with an upper air feature, but the low levels will be dry and we are keeping the forecast dry. Afternoon highs will hold be in the 58-65 degree range, not far from average values for late November in Alabama.

A new surge of cooler air will arrive Monday, and at this point all of next week looks dry with highs mostly in the 50s and lows in the 30s. A freeze is likely over the northern half of the state during the early morning hours Tuesday through Friday. The next significant rain event for the Deep South will likely be in the December 3-8 time frame. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

IRON BOWL: The weather will be just about perfect for Saturday’s Iron Bowl in Auburn (Alabama at Auburn; 2:30p CT kickoff). The sky will be mostly sunny with a kickoff near 63 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

TROPICS: An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal boundary over the central subtropical Atlantic within the next day or so. This non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and environmental conditions could allow for this system to gradually acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week or this weekend, as the system turns northeastward by the weekend.

NHC gives it a 50 percent chance of development; it will remain far from land. Hurricane season ends in 8 days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1874: At least 4 tornadoes touched down in Alabama, killing 16 people. The fatalities happened in Montevallo and Tuscumbia/Rogersville.

ON THIS DATE IN 1992: A total of 45 tornadoes touched down in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Alabama had a total of 13 tornadoes touch down ranging in strength from F0 to F2, with no deaths and 53 injuries. The tornado with the most injuries occurred just outside of Sardis City where multiple structures were damaged and twelve people were injured. Tennessee only had one tornado for the day, but it was a deadly one. An F1 touched down just northwest of Bolivar and stayed on the ground for 16 miles before lifting west of Toone. One person was killed and three others were injured

ON THIS DATE IN 2010: A rare November ice storm prompts Fairbanks officials to advised residents to stay off the roads. Ice storm advisories are hoisted across a 950 mile stretch of the state that extends from Anchorage to Nome.

We are on a holiday schedule; just one video through Friday… but I will post fresh forecast notes here this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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