Midday Nowcast: Significant, Multi-Round Severe Weather Event This Weekend

WONDERFUL WEDNESDAY WEATHER: Today is another exceptional day of weather across Alabama with sunshine in full supply and comfortable afternoon temperatures. Highs today are surging into the upper 70s for most locations across Alabama. We will start to see some clouds overnight, and that will keep overnight lows in the mid 50s range for most of us.

BIRMINGHAM ALMANAC: For March 12th, the average high for Birmingham is 66° and the average low is 44°. The record high is 87° set in 1967, while the record low is 19° set in 1998. We average 0.19” of precipitation on this date and the record value is 3.91” set in 1980.

SOME STORMS TOMORROW: A quick moving system will bring rain and some storms back to Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a “marginal risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe storms tomorrow across much of Alabama.

A few storms tomorrow afternoon could produce gusty winds and hail, but the overall threat is low due to lack of dynamic support. We note, there is a non-zero threat of an isolated tornado across southern sections of the state. Rain amounts should be generally under 1/2 inch and highs tomorrow will be in the lower 70s.

TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY NIGHT: The Moon will pass into Earth’s shadow and appear to turn red on late Thursday night and into the early morning hours of Friday.

In a total lunar eclipse, the entire Moon falls within the darkest part of Earth’s shadow, called the umbra. When the Moon is within the umbra, it appears red-orange. Lunar eclipses are sometimes called “Blood Moons” because of this phenomenon. You don’t need any special equipment to observe a lunar eclipse, although binoculars or a telescope will enhance the view. A dark environment away from bright lights makes for the best viewing conditions.

At Birmingham (and for most of Alabama), totality will begin at 1:26 AM CDT Friday March 14, ending at 2:31AM CDT. We are expecting clouds and showers Thursday, but hopefully clouds will move out by the time of the eclipse.

FANTASTIC FRIDAY: The weather looks great Friday…the day will feature a mix of and sun and clouds, warm temperatures, and breezy conditions; highs will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. However, severe storms will move into Alabama Friday night.

GRADIENT WINDS: Non-thunderstorm winds ahead of the storms, Friday through Saturday will be howling north into the system. Much like the last system, these winds are likely to cause power issues.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND: Our confidence continues to increase in a significant severe weather event this weekend for Alabama and the Deep South. Now and in the coming days is the time to prepare and plan for this event.

THE SETUP: A very dynamic storm system will cause severe storms starting Friday, lasting through Saturday, and into Sunday across the Deep South. On Friday, severe storms are expected to our west throughout the Mississippi Valley up into the Midwest. This first round of storms will enter Alabama Friday night and continue into Saturday morning, over the northern half of the state.

The SPC has much of the state in the threat of severe storms for Friday night, with an “enhanced risk” (level 3 of 5) for northwestern portions of the state. Hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. With this round occurring during the overnight hours, make sure you have ways to receive severe weather alerts.

ROUND TWO, THE MAIN EVENT: This will occur Saturday afternoon and Saturday night; the storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Based on forecast parameters, a few strong tornadoes will be possible (EF-2 or higher). These storms should be out of the state by daybreak Sunday. Rainfall amounts will be in the 2-3 inch range for the northern half of the state, with 1-2 inches across the southern sections of the state. We could see some areas of isolated flooding develop.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues “enhanced risk” (level 3 of 5) of severe storms for all of Alabama Saturday into Saturday night. This threat level will likely continue to change in the coming days, the threat level could be increased and expanded more. As I said yesterday, I would not be surprised and believe this risk will get increased to at least “moderate risk” (level 4 of 5) as we get closer to the weekend.

In the coming days, the short range and mesoscale models will come into play, giving us a better understanding of the true magnitude and impacts of the event. Make sure you are paying attention to future updates, as the forecast will continue to change some as we continue to fine-tune the forecast. But for now, plan for a high impact, severe weather event/outbreak to affect Alabama this weekend.

At AlabamaWX, you will never get fear mongering or overhyping, but a clear understanding of the potential threats, especially when it comes to high impact events. We want to make sure that our forecast and discussion relay the adequate threats and impacts with each event, but we also want to make sure everyone understands the seriousness of the event. Our goal for any severe weather event in Alabama is no loss of life, and no serious injuries. It takes us all working together to make that happen.

CALL TO ACTION: With any severe weather event, be ready to act immediately…Have multiple, reliable ways to receive severe weather alerts, NEVER, ever, ever rely on a outdoor siren. Every Alabama home and business needs a NOAA Weather Radio (the most popular model is the Midland WR-120, which is sold in most local big box retailers). The other way is your phone…be sure emergency alerts are enabled (look under settings, and notifications), and install the free ABC 33/40 Weather app.

Know the safe place in your house, and in that safe place have helmets for everyone. Bicycle helmets and batting helmets work well. We also recommend portable air horns and hard soled shoes for everyone. If you live in an apartment complex, you can’t be above the first level. Shelter with a friend on the ground level, or ask management if they can open the clubhouse during a tornado warning.

If you live in a mobile home, you cannot stay there during a tornado warning, they offer little to know protection from severe storms. Know the location of the nearest shelter, or business that is open 24/7. Know how to get there quickly.

BE A HERO: You can help us. Tell your friends, neighbors, and relatives about the threat, and what they need to do to get ready. And, if they fall in a tornado warning polygon, call them or text them to let them know about the threat. You are our most valuable resource in spreading the word!

Again, this is the core of our severe weather season in Alabama, so events like this are not uncommon. Many of you have anxiety about severe weather, especially those that have gone through tornadoes or other kinds of violent weather. Have comfort knowing that even on the biggest severe weather days, odds of any one home being hit by a tornado are very low. But, you have to pay attention and be prepared. We will get through the event together.

AFTER THE STORMS: Dry air returns Sunday; highs will be in the 60s and 70s. The first half of the following week looks dry and mild; rain and storms are likely to late Wednesday, for now it does’t look like a severe weather threat. However, typically, this time of year, you will get into a 5-7 day storm cycle, meaning for the next several weeks, you can expect the threat of rain and storms at least once a week.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 111.6F at Tillabery, Niger. The lowest observation was -68.4F at Dome C, Antarctica.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 93F at Faith Ranch and Rio Grande Village, TX. The lowest observation was -8F at Peter Sinks, UT.

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