Strong Storms This Evening; Hail Possible
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ON THE MAPS: A deep upper low is near Memphis this afternoon… Temperatures at 500 mb are around -20 degrees (C) at that spot, and the cold air aloft makes for an unstable atmosphere across the Deep South.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 9:00 p.m. for the Tennessee Valley (plus Cullman County) of North Alabama, and additional showers and storms will likely continue to increase over the next few hours. The primary risk from these new storms will come from hail. And, most of them should end by 10:00 p.m. as the air becomes more stable, and cool, dry air begins flowing in from the northwest.
I know many are planning outdoor events this evening like baseball/softball games, etc… there is no way we can tell you what time the rain will start or stop at any given location due to the scattered nature of the storms. Just keep an eye on radar trends.
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: What a beautiful three day period. Sunny pleasant days, fair cool nights for the Easter weekend. Highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s. Just doesn’t get much better.
FROST THREAT NEXT WEEK: Global models continue to show a high amplitude upper air pattern developing over the eastern third of the nation next week, which promises to pull down some chilly air into the Deep South. The 12Z ECMWF is very aggressive and pulls the 5400 meter 1000-500 mb thickness line down into North Alabama during the day Tuesday. If this happens to be correct, we will have a hard time reaching 60. The GFS isn’t as deep, and we will forecast a high in the 60s. Looks like the air will be too dry for any really significant rain as the cool air arrives.
The best chance of frost will come early Wednesday morning, when temperatures could very well reach the 30s over the northern half of Alabama. We all know this is not a “one number” place on a clear, calm morning, but growers need to be aware of the potential for frost, at least in valleys and protected areas. We will fine tune the forecast as it gets closer.
LONG RANGE: The good news is that we don’t see any major severe weather setups for Alabama (after tonight) for the next 15 days. I have to wonder if just maybe the worst of the tornado season is behind us. No way of knowing, of course. Just an idea.
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Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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