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Staying Somewhat Unsettled

| 6:28 am August 1, 2014

***Please note that there will not be a Weather Xtreme Video this morning.*** I plan to have one posted by 8 am on Saturday morning. Here’s a discussion of what is expected in our weather for the next week or so.

We saw a few radar echoes yesterday afternoon passing across Central Alabama, but thanks to a dry layer around 800 to 700 millibars, only a few sprinkles at best reached the ground. But the atmosphere continues to become wetter, so we will see more showers and storms today and through the weekend. The upper level flow remains amplified over the east with a trough persisting over the eastern U.S. This trough retrograded some yesterday, but will back east today and over the weekend. This feature will be enhancing the uplift and tapping into higher moisture levels which will allow for scattered showers and storms to develop at almost anytime throughout the day keeping the weekend somewhat unsettled.

As the trough move back east over the weekend, it will increase our rain chances for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks to be the wetter day for now, but it should not be an all day rain. Sunday will see good rain chances as well, and both days will see highs in the mid-80s with extensive cloud cover preventing much warming during the day.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the first part of the week, but looking at the medium range models, the pattern flattens out some in the east and that means our flow will become a bit more zonal. We are likely to see rain chances decrease and become more diurnally driven with afternoon heating. Temperatures will also climb into the 89 to 92 range. After starting the month with below seasonal temperatures, it looks as though that temps will climb to seasonal norms. Rain chances will be more typical for early August with only a few isolated showers and storms possible.

A mix of sun and clouds for beach goers. Fairly seasonal weather is expected as scattered afternoon storms will be possible. The best chance of rain looks to be Sunday into Monday, but after that, rain chances begin to lower again. Highs are in the upper 80s, and the water temperatures are averaging lower 80s from Panama City west to Dauphin Island.

TROPICAL SITUATION: Bertha came into being yesterday afternoon and is expected to move through the Lesser Antilles today and across Puerto Rico late Saturday. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge which is forecast to persist. Once Bertha reaches the Bahamas, she will be steered by the southerly flow between the subtropical high and the upper level trough over the eastern United States. This pattern should force Bertha to turn northward with recurvature northeastward over the Atlantic keeping it away from the Southeast US Coast.

Long range model projections remain trending toward ridging across the southern tier of the US. However, the overall troughiness we’ve seen during July across the eastern US persists, so there is currently no signs of any significant heat for the eastern US.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Sorry for lack of a Weather Xtreme Video this morning, but dealing with some minor cold issues with coughs and you know what that can do to sleep in your household. Enjoy the continued cooler than typical weather while it lasts. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Bertha Is Born

| 10:09 pm July 31, 2014

Bertha 001 avn_lalo-animated

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Bertha since showers and storms are building rapidly around the center and the plane encountered tropical storm force winds.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI…620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

Tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for parts of the Lesser Antilles.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

Here is the forecast track and cone of uncertainty:

Bertha 030122W_sm

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Mostly Cloudy Today

| 6:56 am July 31, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Not nearly as chilly this morning as temperatures were not allowed to drop as much due to increased clouds from the convection off to our west. No new records this morning as the morning lows were about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday morning.

The upper level flow remains in a trough pattern across the eastern US. This trough is forecast to move westward a little or retrograde, so the trough axis should be just to our west into the weekend. This along with the moisture increase will allow for showers over the weekend with the best chances coming Saturday and Sunday, but there will still be some chance of showers into next week.

NHC continues to watch an area of disturbed weather approaching the Lesser Antilles. Conditions are still conducive for possible development, however, the chances for the formation of a tropical storm have dropped off a tad. So this continues to be watched.

While the trough retrogrades today and Friday, it will migrate back east over the weekend bringing up our rain chances for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks like a wetter day for now, but probably not an all day rain event.

The trough over the eastern US weakens as upper ridging strengthens across the southern tier of the US into the first of next week. With moisture in place, we should return to something more summer-ish with daily chances of showers driven primarily by the heat of the afternoon. Afternoon highs will climb back into the 89 to 92 range.

Beach goers will enjoy a good supply of sunshine today but clouds increase for Friday and into the weekend along with shower chances. Highs along the coast will be in the 85 to 88 range with morning lows in the lower and middle 70s. Temperatures will be a little warmer away from the coast.

The overall active pattern with a trough in the East continues into voodoo country or week two. Trough is not nearly as strong as the westerlies tend to move back toward the north. This should signal a warmer period of weather if this verifies, but still nothing in the way of extreme heat appears likely.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

We will be on a one-a-day Weather Xtreme Video through next week as I sub for the vacationing James Spann. Next Weather Xtreme Video by 7 am or so on Friday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Moisture Levels Begin To Rise Tomorrow

| 3:33 pm July 30, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FINE SUMMER DAY: After record lows this morning (as cool as 50 degrees at Black Creek, near Gadsden), temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 80s across North/Central Alabama this afternoon. The sky is mostly sunny, and humidity levels remain low.

Temperatures

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: We are watching with interesting an MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) type feature on the Arkansas/Oklahoma border, moving southeast. The NAM has identified this feature, and moves rain into Northwest Alabama early tomorrow morning. The GFS model, however, remains rather dry and shows the rain mostly dissipating before reaching our state. Based on radar trends, I do think we will need to mention a chance of showers tomorrow, but the air over the state is relatively dry, so amounts should be mostly light and spotty. The high tomorrow will be in the mid 80s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Moisture levels will be deeper Friday, so scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: An axis of deeper moisture will be in place as the weekend begins, so for now Saturday looks like a day with more clouds than sun, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with a high in the low to mid 80s. Showers and storms are still possible Sunday, although they should thin out a bit with temperatures rising into the upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Confidence is low since there is not much consistency in model output; looks like we will need to continue to some of scattered showers and storms through at least the first half of the week, with daily highs between 87 and 90 degrees. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather tomorrow with only a small risk of a shower from Panama City west to Gulf Shores; the high will be in the upper 80s. Then, about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day Friday through Sunday with a daily possibility of scattered showers and storms.

TROPICAL WEATHER: The tropical wave in the Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is still struggling; there is little deep convection this afternoon as it moves west/northwest. Seems like dry air surrounding the system, and wind shear is preventing it from becoming better organized. NHC has dropped the chance of development from 70 to 50 percent, and if anything can form in that region most likely it recurves before reaching the U.S. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be taking a little vacation time… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here Friday morning, August 8 by 7:30. Brian Peters will handle the videos tomorrow through August 7…

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Record Lows Shattered Across Alabama

| 6:16 am July 30, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COOL JULY MORNING: Here is a look at observations at daybreak across Alabama…

Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 50
Jamestown (Cherokee County) 51
Fort Payne 52
Valley Head (DeKalb County) 52
Cottondale 52
Cullman 53
Jasper 54
Demopolis 54
Haleyville 54
Gadsden 55
Anniston 56
Jemison 56
Pleasant Grove 57
Auburn 57
Tuscaloosa 58
Birmingham Airport 58
Montgomery 59

New record lows have been established at all climate reporting sites in our state, and in Montgomery, the record for July 30 that stood for 125 years was shattered (their old record low was 66 set in 1889).

Today will be another delightful day, with ample sunshine and low humidity along with a high in the mid 80s.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Looks like most of the state will stay dry tomorrow with only a small risk of an afternoon shower, but scattered showers and storms will more likely Friday as moisture levels rise. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s both days.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A pretty decent pool of moisture will be in place, and with an upper trough axis to the west we expect scattered, perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. The sky will be occasionally cloudy with highs generally in the mid 80s. The sun will be out at times, but if you have something planned outdoors, just be aware that you will have to dodge occasional showers.

Then, early next week, the air becomes drier across the state and showers become hard to find by Tuesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Lots of sunshine for the coast from Panama City over to Gulf Shores today and tomorrow; then we will bring in the risk of a few scattered storms Friday through Sunday, but even then you will see 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day. Highs on the coast will remain in the mid to upper 80s. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees.

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: The well organized wave in the Atlantic, about half way between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight as it moves west/northwest. A good chance it will be Tropical Storm Bertha by Friday, but models continue to show a path of recurvature over the open Atlantic before it gets close to the U.S. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details.

AL93_current

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

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Record Lows Early Tomorrow

| 3:48 pm July 29, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

NICE PREVIEW OF AUTUMN: What a delightful afternoon across the great state of Alabama. Lots of sunshine, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. Many communities north of Birmingham did not get out of the 70s with a fresh north breeze.

We are still look at a very cool night tonight for late July, with record lows likely early tomorrow…

image_full6

Most communities will enjoy a low between 57 and 61 degrees, with a few low to mid 50s over the northeast counties. Interesting to note that Montgomery should easily break a 125 year old record low for July 30.

The weather will remain very pleasant tomorrow with ample sunshine and low humidity.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Low level moisture will slowly return on these days. We will mention just a small risk of a shower Thursday afternoon, with a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

THE WEEKEND: The pool of moisture stays in place, and the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds both days. The rain won’t be continuous over the weekend, but a shower could come at just about any hour, so make outdoor plans accordingly. Highs will remain generally in the 86-89 degree range.

Some evidence more dry air could drop into Alabama around Tuesday of next week with lower humidity levels by then. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Look for sunny weather along the Gulf Coast tomorrow and Thursday from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A few scattered showers and storms are possible Friday through the weekend, but you will still enjoy about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.

TROPICAL UPDATE: A well organized wave over the Central Atlantic is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow, and ultimately Tropical Storm Bertha. Late model data suggests Bertha will begin to weaken in 4-5 days as it begins to recurve into the open Atlantic, and for now this does not seem to be a threat to the U.S. mainland.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Covenant Classical School in Pelham… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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More Like September

| 6:26 am July 29, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FALL PREVIEW: Sure feels good this morning with cooler, drier air in place. Fort Payne, Valley Head, and Russellville have all dropped to 59 degrees right at daybreak, with low to mid 60s in most other communities. The sky is clear, and the humidity is low.

In the core of the cool air up north, Ann Arbor, Michigan has dropped to 44 degrees early this morning. Quite a chill for late July.

Delightful weather will continue through tomorrow with sunny days, low humidity, and a cool night tonight. We figure most places will enjoy a low between 57 and 61 degrees early tomorrow, and many new record lows are likely across Alabama. Birmingham’s record low for July 30 is 61 degrees, set in 1994.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Moisture begins to return on these two days. We will mention the chance of a shower Thursday afternoon, and showers and thunderstorms are likely at times on Friday. Highs remain in the 80s; in fact some North Alabama communities might not get out of the 70s Friday due to clouds and showers.

OUR WEEKEND: Moist air will stay in place, so a risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday and Sunday. The sky will be occasionally cloudy both days with highs in the 80s. The rain won’t be continuous, but if you have something planned outdoors this weekend be ready for a passing shower at any time.

The risk of scattered showers and storms will continue into early next week… see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunshine in full supply today and tomorrow from Panama City over to Gulf Shores with highs in the 80s. A few scattered showers and storms will return Thursday through the weekend with about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 83 degrees.

TROPICAL UPDATE: A well organized tropical wave in the Atlantic, between and coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, should become a tropical depression soon, and ultimately Tropical Storm Bertha. The persistent upper trough over the eastern U.S. should force Bertha northward before impacting the U.S. mainland, and it doesn’t look like a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

AL93_current

Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program today for the kids at Covenant Classical School in Pelham… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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WeatherBrains 444: Holding Nate Back

| 5:15 am July 29, 2014

WeatherBrains Episode 444 is now online (July 28, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest Panelist is the Morning and Midday Meteorologist at KFSN, the ABC O&O in Fresno, CA. She is a recent graduate of Mississippi State University. She is famous for her 3D weather cakes which have attracted a cult following.

When you look in the dictionary for the definition of the word climatologist, you see tonight’s picture next to it. She served in state climatology offices for nearly twenty years, serving in the position of State Climatologist for Wisconsin from 1989-1996 and Assistant State Climatologist for Georgia from 2001-11. She is a Past President of the American Association of State Climatologists and she is a CCM as well. She currently serves as the Agricultural Climatologist for the Crop and Soil Sciences Department at UGA. And she does all this while keeping one of our favorite guests, Dr. John Knox, straight. Dr. Pam Knox, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 111 at Glendale, AZ, and 33 at Pahaska, WY and at Snake River Ranger Station, WY
  • Atlantic quiet but a wave moving through South Central Atlantic may become second named storm
  • Bill eating Indian food in Calgary, Alberta
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: Sometimes there are terms which just don’t seem to fit the meaning that they have. We’re not making fun of this word, but when put in context of other things in life, it seems to be contrary in meaning. So see how this applies to extratropical.

    TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of July 28th.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 444:

    ABC 30 Fresno, Shelby’s station

    On the Case – Knox Blog

    John Christy/Kerry Immanuel Climate Discussion

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – KickStarter Project – Forecasting toolkit for iPad

    Bill Murray – Experimental

    Brian Peters – Gets the Fog Horn!

    James Spann – Atlantic Wind Shear

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Blog on El Nino Status

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

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