Tag: rain

Three Weather Issues Ahead

| December 31, 2016 @ 4:15 am

Here is a quick look at the three issues facing Alabama over the next week…

WEEKEND RAIN: A good rain event will unfold this weekend with rising moisture levels, isentropic lift, and an approaching wave aloft.

As you can see, the heaviest rain should fall over South Alabama, where the NWS Mobile has issued a flash flood watch for seven Alabama counties, and Escambia County in Florida (including Pensacola)…

There will be breaks in the rain, but this looks like a very wet New Years weekend for most of Alabama.

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY: Warm, unstable air will move northward during the day Monday ahead of another wave to the west, and by Monday afternoon dewpoints will be in the 60s well into North Alabama. This will make the air unstable, and set the stage for the chance of strong to severe storms. SPC has most of the state in a “marginal” severe weather risk, with a more significant “slight” risk over far West and Southwest Alabama.

Just too early to resolve the mesoscale details that will determine the severity of the threat for now, but these cold season systems can be very tricky to deal with. Looks like a classic “low CAPE, high shear” event we see this time of the year. Limited instability, but good veering of the wind with altitude. Looks like strong to severe storms could be possible from Monday afternoon well into Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

WINTER MISCHIEF LATE IN THE WEEK? Much colder, Arctic air will settle into Alabama Thursday and Friday, and with a broad southwest flow aloft with potential for embedded waves, that sets the stage for some potential for wintry precipitation somewhere across the southern U.S.

As usual, there is complete model madness for now. Best way to deal with this is to use the ensemble approach; this is model output using multiple runs (or members), with each using a slightly different set of initialization conditions. The collection of different runs from the series of initialization “tweaks” is called an ensemble.

Output from the GEFS (global ensemble forecast system with 21 members) still suggests some potential for wintry precipitation (snow, sleet, or freezing rain) across the southern U.S. in the January 5-7 time frame…

There is absolutely no way to resolve the details on this; some in this zone could very well see some sleet, freezing rain, or snow, but others will see just a cold rain, and some will get nothing.

Why share the idea at all? Because we are within 7 days of the event, where there is some forecast skill. And, it is our job to give you the range of possibilities out to seven days. We really need to get past the severe weather threat Monday night before we can have a good grasp on this; just something to watch for now.

As always, keep an eye on the blog for details on these three events…

Rain At Times Through Tomorrow; Much Colder Thursday

| December 12, 2016 @ 2:30 pm

RADAR CHECK: Patches of rain are on radar at mid-afternoon, mostly south of a stalled surface front near I-20…

Temperatures are in the 50s north of the front, over the northern third of the state, with balmy 70s south of the front down in far South Alabama. The front will slowly lift northward tonight, and we expect periods of rain through tomorrow. The high tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s, and additional rain amounts of around 1/2 inch are likely. Some thunder is possible in the unstable air over South Alabama, but severe weather is not expected.

Wednesday looks dry and cooler with gradual clearing; the high will be in the 55-60 degree range.

ARCTIC SHOT THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The weather turns sharply colder Thursday; we expect a high between 41 and 45 degrees despite sunshine in full force, and a north wind of 12-22 mph will make it feel colder. The low early Friday will be in the 20-25 degree range, with potential for upper teens across colder valleys and protected areas. Then, Friday will be sunny with a high in the upper 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Southerly winds will usher in moist air Saturday; developing showers are likely with a high in the mid 60s. An approaching cold front will bring potential for very active weather Saturday night and Sunday; unstable air surges into the southern half of the state, and we can’t rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms there. Temperatures Sunday will rise into the 70s over South Alabama.

In contrast, behind the front, temperatures will fall over far North Alabama, and could actually reach the 30s by mid to late afternoon Sunday. The 12Z GFS hints there could be a brief window for rain to change to snow north of U.S. 278, but the reliable European model says “not so fast”, with very little chance of anything significant, and that solution seems more plausible based on projected thermal fields.

In our forecast we will mention a chance of rain and thunderstorms Sunday morning, with falling temperatures during the afternoon as rain moves out. Understand some communities could touch 70 degrees Sunday morning, but then be closer to 40 degrees by late afternoon as temperatures go the wrong way.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

NEXT WEEK: A very active pattern means little if any forecast confidence more than 7 days in advance; for now it looks mostly dry Monday, but rain could return as early as Tuesday. For now it looks like temperatures will be close to average levels around Christmas Day here, with highs in the 50s…

Again, there is no evidence of any high impact snow or ice event for Alabama through Christmas Day.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

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Rain Returns Today; Sharply Colder Thursday

| December 12, 2016 @ 6:21 am

RADAR CHECK: Rain is falling over much of North Alabama this morning with temperatures in the 50s…

The rain is ahead of a surface front that will become nearly stationary over Alabama tonight. We should point out this is not an Arctic front; the high today will be close to 60, followed by mid 60s tomorrow.

The most widespread rain will come this morning; there should be a break for much of North/Central Alabama this afternoon, but the sky will stay cloudy. Then, the front will move northward slowly as a warm front tonight and tomorrow, with rain increasing again statewide. Rain amounts through tomorrow night should be in the 1/2 inch range. Some thunder is possible over the next 36 hours, but there is no risk of severe thunderstorms.

For now it looks like the rain will be pretty much over by late tomorrow night… Wednesday looks cool and dry with slow clearing and a high in the mid to upper 50s.

ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Yet another surge of very cold air drops into the state Thursday. The high will be around 40 degrees along the I-20 corridor (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston)… most places to the north will hold in the 30s all day with a chilly north breeze of 10-18 mph, making it feel colder. On the positive side, the sun should be out in full force.

We project a low early Friday in the 18-22 degree range for most communities; then during the day Friday the high will be in the mid 40s with sunny sky.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weather turns warmer; we rise into the 60s Saturday with the sky becoming mostly cloudy, and rain should become widespread late Saturday, Saturday night, and into Sunday. The weekend event should bring around one inch of needed rain to our state.

NEXT WEEK: After a dry day or two, it looks like more rain will move into Alabama by mid to late week. Remember, we are still in a severe to exceptional drought, so this is a very good thing. Here are rain deficiencies since January 1…

Anniston 16.26″
Tuscaloosa 13.43″
Birmingham 11.72″
Montgomery 10.74″
Huntsville 9.18″

CHRISTMAS?? There is no skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days, but the pattern seems to favor seasonal temperatures with highs in the 50s. For Birmingham, the average high on December 25 is 54 degrees.

We need to stress there is no evidence of any issues in Alabama with snow or ice over the next 15 days.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Soaking Rain Tonight; Arctic Blast By Thursday

| December 5, 2016 @ 3:23 pm

RADAR CHECK: Yet another large mass of rain is moving up into North/Central Alabama this afternoon…

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The air is cool and stable with temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s, meaning we expect no severe weather problems over the northern half of the state tonight.

However, to the south, the air is unstable near the Gulf Coast, and a tornado watch remains in effect until 8:00 p.m. for the broad zone from Mobile Bay to Panama City. In Alabama, only three counties are included… Baldwin, Geneva, and Houston.

SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” of severe storms for South Alabama tonight…

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Additional rain amounts of at least one inch are likely tonight; rain ends early tomorrow morning as a surface low pulls away to the northeast. Clouds linger much of the day tomorrow, however, with a high in the upper 50s.

Wednesday looks cool and dry with a mix of sun and clouds along with a high between 55 and 59 degrees.

ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY: An Arctic front invades Alabama Thursday. Moisture will be limited, but some light rain is possible ahead of the front. The big story is the cold air; the high Thursday will be only in the low 40s with a biting north wind of 15-30 mph, making it feel much colder. By Friday morning, temperatures will be down in the 19-22 degree range. And, during the day Friday, we won’t make it out of the 30s despite sunshine in full supply. Some communities up in the Tennessee Valley will stay below freezing all day Friday.

Despite what the rumor mill is producing, there is no risk of any winter weather mischief Thursday and Friday. I guess it is possible somebody might see a few light snow flurries over Northeast Alabama Thursday evening, but it won’t amount to anything, and there is no impact.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The low Saturday morning will be down in the 17-21 degree range; Birmingham’s record low for December 10 is 13 (set in 1995)… most likely that is safe despite the cold air intrusion. The say Saturday will be sunny with a high in the upper 40s. Then, clouds return Sunday, and some light rain could move in from the west Sunday afternoon ahead of the next wave aloft. Moisture will be limited, so rain amounts should be light through Sunday night.

NEXT WEEK: Some light rain could linger on Monday, followed by drier weather through mid-week. Then, global models show another Arctic blast toward the end of next week… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

“NO BURN” ORDER LIFTED: Here is a release from the Alabama Forestry Commission…

“Effective immediately, Governor Robert Bentley and Interim State Forester Gary Cole have rescinded the statewide Drought Emergency ‘No Burn’ Order which has been in effect since early November. Officials with the Alabama Forestry Commission (AFC) say the state has received enough rainfall over the last few days to reduce the threat of dangerous wildfires.

“In recent days we have seen significant rainfall across our state and the Alabama Forestry Commission now believes the worst of the drought has ended,” Governor Bentley said. “I want to thank the Forestry Commission and the dozens of local fire departments that have worked so hard to ensure the thousands of wildfires didn’t get out of hand. These men and women have worked long hours under intense conditions to prevent as much damage as possible. We will continue to work with stake holders across the state to help everyone recover from the drought.”

According to Cole, “Although all counties in the state will return to having burn permits available, we should bear in mind that Alabama like much of the South is still experiencing extreme drought conditions this fall. The AFC will continue to monitor ground moisture levels throughout the state. If ground fuels become exceptionally dry again, it may be necessary to re-issue a Fire Alert or No Burn Order in affected areas.”

The AFC advises anyone conducting any type of outdoor burning to follow safety precautions such as not leaving a fire unattended until it is completely out, having the necessary equipment and personnel to control the fire, and having a garden hose or other water supply on hand for smaller debris burns. Any fire more than a quarter-acre in size or within 25 feet of a forested area requires a permit from the AFC.”

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Closer Look At The Coming Rain Event

| November 26, 2016 @ 8:52 am

Our most significant rain event since July is ahead for Alabama; this won’t come close to ending the drought, but it will certainly give it a “punch in the gut”. We are getting many questions, so here are some answers…

TIMING: Tis the season for Christmas parades and other holiday events, and we are getting many questions about the times rain will fall. Understand it is hard to define the exact windows now, but here are some ideas…

ROUND ONE: The first round of rain and storms will come Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Showers will begin to develop across Alabama during the day Monday, but the most widespread rain will come Monday night and early Tuesday, generally between 9 p.m. Monday and 9:00 a.m. Tuesday.

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For Monday night Christmas parades, understand there will be some thunder and lightning involved. But, there is a chance the most widespread rain arrive after the parades are over. No need to cancel at this point, it is a very close call. Confidence in the timing will be higher tomorrow.

ROUND TWO: After a break in the rain for much of the day Tuesday, the main window for the second round of rain will come from 6:00 p.m. Tuesday through 3:00 a.m. Thursday. It does looks pretty wet for the Christmas parades scheduled for Tuesday night… drier air will move into the state during the day Thursday with gradual clearing by afternoon.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for most of Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi for Monday afternoon and Monday night, with a “marginal risk” into far West Alabama…

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The best combination of instability, shear, and dynamic support will remain west of Alabama Monday night, but a few strong storms are certainly possible over the western counties of the state. But, the good news for now is that the overall severe weather threat looks fairly low.

RAIN AMOUNTS: New guidance this morning from WPC (NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center) suggests amounts from 2 to 4 inches for North/Central Alabama from Monday through Thursday…

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Understand we need rain amounts of 8 to 12 inches to end this drought. It takes time to get into a drought, and it also takes time to get out of them. But, this is a very important and beneficial rain event for our state.

Keep an eye on the blog for updates…

Light Rain Tomorrow; Stormy Early Next Week

| November 22, 2016 @ 3:30 pm

MACKEREL SKY: We have a field of altocumulus clouds across Alabama this afternoon… ahead of a storm system to the west. A beautiful November sky… photo below is from @ace123michael

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Temperatures are in the 60s, and the low levels remain extremely dry with dew points between 5 and 15 degrees.

TOMORROW: A short wave aloft will push showers into Alabama during the afternoon hours; SPC suggests some thunder is possible over North and West Alabama, but the air will be stable and we won’t expect any severe weather problems. Showers will remain possible through tomorrow night, but this will be a light rain event with amounts generally around 0.10″. Some spots over Northwest Alabama could see a quarter of an inch… this kind of rain certainly isn’t significant considering the exceptional drought we are in, but it will help forestry officials and their constant battle against wildfires.

The main window for showers will come from 12:00 noon tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Thursday.

THANKSGIVING DAY: It is possible we could see a little light rain lingering early Thursday morning over far East Alabama, but the showers should be mostly over by 6:00 a.m. Morning clouds will give way to a partly sunny afternoon, and the high will be close to 70 degrees. A very comfortable day.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny days, fair nights. The high Friday will be close to 70, but temperatures will drop about 10 degrees Saturday with a surge of cooler air; the high will be close to 60 for most communities. Many spots will see a light freeze early Sunday with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s.

IRON BOWL: A beautiful day for football in Tuscaloosa Saturday. For our state’s biggest game of the year (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30p CT kickoff at Bryant Denny Stadium), the sky will be sunny with temperatures falling from 61 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s during the second half.

STORMY WEATHER RETURNS: A dynamic storm system will impact Alabama early next week; we have excellent model agreement. A vigorous upper trough will spin up a deep surface low over the Upper Midwest Monday, and the trailing cold front will bring rain and strong storms to the Deep South. For now it looks like the main impact in Alabama will come Monday night. We will need to monitor this system for severe weather potential… and on the positive side rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely.

ecmwf_slp_precip_east_28

Active weather should continue into December; ensemble guidance from the reliable European global model is still showing almost 8 inches of rain around here through early January. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend with highs mostly in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

EYES ON OTTO: Now the 7th hurricane of the season in the far Southwest Caribbean; it moves into Central America Thanksgiving Day, and is far from the U.S. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Wet At Times Today; A Dry Weekend

| May 20, 2016 @ 6:29 am

RADAR CHECK: A large MCS (mesoscale convective system) has been moving across the southern half of the state during the pre-dawn hours, and new showers and storms are forming over North Alabama at daybreak.

Screen Shot 2016-05-20 at 6.15.20 AM

Our friends at the Storm Prediction Center have much of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe weather…

AL_swody1

The good news is that the early morning storm mass over South Alabama has disrupted wind fields across Alabama, and that should lessen the risk of severe storms this afternoon. And, it should also mean lowered rain amounts since the inflow from the Gulf has been cut off for a while. Still, heavier storms later today could produce small hail and gusty winds as they pass through during the peak of the daytime heating process.

Showers and storms today will be more scattered than earlier thought, but still most communities should see around 1/2 inch of rain, with isolated amounts to one inch where heavier storms develop. Showers and storms will taper off early tonight as drier air begins to work into the state.

THE WEEKEND: We could see some lingering clouds early tomorrow morning, otherwise we expect mostly sunny, warm weather tomorrow and Sunday with high temperatures close to, or just over 80 degrees. Humidity levels will be a bit lower, and we should drop into the 50s early Sunday morning.

NEXT WEEK: Warm, dry weather continues Monday and Tuesday… then we will mention just the risk of widely scattered afternoon showers Wednesday through Friday; nothing to suggest anything really heavy widespread. Highs will be in the 80s… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: The Hangout Music Festival is this weekend at Gulf Shores… they had some big storms early this morning, and a few additional showers and storms are possible later today and early tonight. But, it won’t rain all day, and the sun will break out at times. Then, the sky will be mostly sunny tomorrow and Sunday. Highs will be close to 80 on the immediate coast; the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 79 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

REGIONS TRADITION: Despite occasional showers and storms today, they should be able to get some golf in at Greystone. Better chance of a stronger storm comes this afternoon, and the high will be in the 77-80 degree range. The weather will be fine tomorrow and Sunday with ample sunshine and highs close to 80 degrees. Get more information about the tournament here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: Coming up at the Hoover Met May 24-29… for now the weather looks warm and dry Tuesday, then we will mention warm, humid conditions Wednesday through the weekend (May 25-29) with only widely scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have a weather program this morning at Hamilton Elementary School in Marion County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Cool, Wet Weather Continues

| April 14, 2016 @ 6:21 am

PERIODS OF RAIN: Some of the heaviest rain at daybreak is over Southeast Alabama, with light to moderate showers showing up over the northern half of the state…

Screen Shot 2016-04-14 at 6.10.05 AM

An upper low west of the state will keep us cloudy and cool with occasional showers through tonight. We stay in the 60s today, well below the average high of 74 for April 14.

TOMORROW: A cold air damming pattern (CAD) will bring cooler air into the eastern counties of the state, where they will hold in the cool 50s most of the day. Periods of mostly light rain will continue; additional rain totals from now through tomorrow night will be close to 1/2 inch for the northern half of the state, with amounts closer to 1 inch for South Alabama.

SATURDAY: CAD patterns often take longer to break down that models suggest, and no doubt there is a good chance clouds will linger into Saturday morning. And, the high resolution (4km) NAM and European (ECMWF) models suggest we will need to hang on to some risk of lingering showers. and we will lean in that direction in the forecast. The high Saturday afternoon will be in the 67-70 degree range.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Delightful weather for Alabama, with sunny warm days, and clear pleasant nights. We reach the mid 70s Sunday, followed by 80 degree warmth Monday and Tuesday.

Showers should return toward the end of next week, but no sign of any severe weather problems around here. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: The big event is coming up at the Barber Motorsports Park April 22-24… too early for a specific forecast, but at this point the weather looks warm and rather showery. Get ticket information here.

AT THE BEACH: Occasional showers and storms will continue through tomorrow, but the weekend will be brighter with sunshine returning Saturday and Sunday. The dry weather continues into early next week with highs generally in the 70s on the immediate coast… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program today at Coldwater Elementary School in Calhoun County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Cool, Wet Weather Through Friday

| April 13, 2016 @ 3:23 pm

RADAR CHECK: Light rain is falling over parts of Central Alabama this afternoon… otherwise the sky is cloudy with temperatures in the 60s.

Screen Shot 2016-04-13 at 3.14.57 PM

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: A wave of low pressure on a stalled surface front to the south will mean cool, wet weather with periods of rain, and possibly a thunderstorm. Additional rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are expected, and while there could be some thunder, there won’t be a severe weather threat. A cold air damming (CAD) pattern setting up means some East Alabama communities will hold in the 50s all day tomorrow; highs will be in the 60s elsewhere.

FRIDAY: Cloudy, cool weather continues. The “wedge” front pushes deeper into Alabama, and most places along and east of I-65 won’t make it out of the 50s. Some patchy light rain will linger, but amounts should be fairly light.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Clouds could linger over parts of the state Saturday morning, but the sky becomes sunny by afternoon as the CAD pattern breaks down. Sunshine will be out in full force Sunday. Highs will be in the 60s Saturday, followed by mid 70s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The overall pattern looks pretty quiet as an upper ridge builds; the high will be around 80 each day for much of the week. A few showers are possible by Wednesday or Thursday, but it certainly doesn’t look like a big event. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms continue at times through Friday, but the weekend will be brighter with sunshine returning Saturday and Sunday; highs from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach will remain mostly in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: The big event at the Barber Motorsports Park is April 22-24… too early for a specific forecast, but the pattern favors mild to warm temperatures. Get ticket information here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the 1st graders at Margaret Elementary in St. Clair County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Good Soaking Tonight

| April 11, 2016 @ 3:31 pm

RADAR CHECK: Rain has become widespread across the northern half of the state this afternoon; thunderstorms are over the western counties…

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Rain and storms will continue across Alabama tonight with rain amounts of around one inch for most places. The overall severe weather threat is very low with a stable airmass.

TOMORROW: Rain and storms will end during the morning hours, and by tomorrow afternoon most of the rain will be over South Alabama, where SPC has defined a “marginal risk” of severe storms…

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A few peeks of sunshine are possible tomorrow afternoon over the northern half of the state, and the high will be in the 67 to 70 degree range.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The surface front will remain stationary over South Alabama, and it will drift back and forth as a couple of waves move along the front. This means the sky will be generally cloudy on these days, and there will be a risk of scattered showers. Nothing too heavy, and the most widespread rain will most likely come over South Alabama. Highs both days will fall between 65 and 70 degrees for most communities.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A drier airmass will drop into the state Friday, and it looks generally dry at this point, and the weekend looks delightful, with sunny mild days and clear nights. We reach the mid 70s Saturday, and have potential for upper 70s Sunday as high pressure aloft builds in.

NEXT WEEK: Warm, dry weather is the story Monday and Tuesday; there will be a risk of showers during the latter half of the week, but for now we see no evidence of a really big rain event, or a severe weather threat. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Generally cloudy weather continues on the coast through Friday with some risk of showers and storms each day from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores, but the weekend ahead looks great with sunshine returning in full force. Highs will stay mostly in the 70s… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the first graders at Elvin Hill Elementary in Columbiana… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Rain Returns To Alabama Tonight

| April 11, 2016 @ 6:14 am

WET WEATHER AHEAD: After a delightful weekend, clouds return to Alabama today; most communities will see a high in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. West of the state, active weather is likely; there is an “enhanced risk” of severe storms around the Ark-La-Tex region.

While some rain could reach West Alabama this afternoon, showers and storms will become widespread tonight. There is a “marginal risk” of severe storms for extreme West Alabama after midnight, but the overall severe weather threat looks low with the main upper support well to the north, and very little surface based instability.

A surface low will move right through North Alabama, and it should be a good soaking, with rain amounts of around one inch likely.

TOMORROW: Showers and storms should end during the morning, with most of the activity shifting down into South Alabama by afternoon, where SPC has a “marginal risk” of severe storms defined.

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The high tomorrow afternoon will be close to 70, and we might see a few intervals of sun late in the day.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The surface front will be stationary over South Alabama, and with a wave of low pressure forming along the front, we will need to mention some risk of showers on these two days. Nothing especially heavy or widespread, but just understand a shower is possible from time to time. The sky will feature more clouds than sun, and the highs should be in the 68-72 degree range.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather looks very nice, with mostly sunny days and clear nights. The high Friday will be in the low 70s, followed by mid to upper 70s this weekend.

NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues Monday and Tuesday, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday with an approaching upper trough. A good chance we see low 80s early in the week… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: The weather on the Gulf Coast this week from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores will be unsettled; very little sunshine through Friday with some risk of showers and storms on a daily basis. But, the weekend looks great with sunshine back in full force Saturday and Sunday. Highs will remain mostly in the 70s; the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 68 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it right here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Elvin Hill Elementary in Columbiana… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Severe Weather Risk Today – South Alabama

| April 1, 2016 @ 5:59 am

RADAR CHECK: There is a broad mass of showers and storms early this morning from near Pensacola to Atlanta…

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We note Covington County in far South Alabama is under a severe thunderstorm warning, issued at 5:41.

The severe weather risk today is primarily for the southern half of the state; SPC has the standard “slight risk” defined south of a line from Thomasville to Prattville to Lafayette…

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The main threat today will come from straight line thunderstorm winds and some hail. We should also mention a flash flood watch remains in effect today for most of the state, except the Tennessee Valley.

Showers and storms this morning will be mostly confined to South Alabama, but high resolution model data shows the rain mass moving northward, reaching I-20 late this afternoon. Some rain is likely for places like Birmingham, Anniston, and Tuscaloosa in the 3pm – 10pm time frame. No severe storms, but some thunder is possible. The day will be mostly cloudy with a high in the 70s.

THE WEEKEND: Dry air returns, and we expect sunshine in full supply tomorrow and Sunday with a high both days in the mid 60s. Sunday morning will be pretty cold with a low in the 37-43 degree range; colder valleys will see low to mid 30s with some frost. Growers beware.

NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues Monday and Tuesday with pleasant afternoons and cool nights. Next chance of rain comes Wednesday night into Thursday morning thanks to a passing cold front; some thunderstorms are possible, but at this time the risk of severe weather looks low. Then, a pretty cool airmass will follow, and the GFS continues to suggest we will see lows by Friday morning (April 8) in the 30-35 degree range. Another situation growers and gardeners will need to monitor in coming days. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Showers/storms are likely today, but the weather improves over the weekend with returning sunshine. Dry weather holds into early next week… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: Storm Spotter Xtreme is coming up Saturday, April 9 at the BJCC from 9am to 2pm. This will feature both the basic and advanced SKYWARN classes, along with a session from Kevin Laws of the Birmingham NWS office. And, if you come, you get free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show, going on at the BJCC that same day. There is no cost and no need to register. Just show up with a curious mind. Kids 10 and older will also enjoy this if they love weather and want to learn more. Please help us make the severe weather warning process better!

We will also offer a basic class at the Helena Civic Center next Tuesday (April 5) at 6:30.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Englewood Elementary in Tuscaloosa… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!