Tag: rain

Closer Look At The Coming Rain Event

| November 26, 2016 @ 8:52 am

Our most significant rain event since July is ahead for Alabama; this won’t come close to ending the drought, but it will certainly give it a “punch in the gut”. We are getting many questions, so here are some answers…

TIMING: Tis the season for Christmas parades and other holiday events, and we are getting many questions about the times rain will fall. Understand it is hard to define the exact windows now, but here are some ideas…

ROUND ONE: The first round of rain and storms will come Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Showers will begin to develop across Alabama during the day Monday, but the most widespread rain will come Monday night and early Tuesday, generally between 9 p.m. Monday and 9:00 a.m. Tuesday.

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For Monday night Christmas parades, understand there will be some thunder and lightning involved. But, there is a chance the most widespread rain arrive after the parades are over. No need to cancel at this point, it is a very close call. Confidence in the timing will be higher tomorrow.

ROUND TWO: After a break in the rain for much of the day Tuesday, the main window for the second round of rain will come from 6:00 p.m. Tuesday through 3:00 a.m. Thursday. It does looks pretty wet for the Christmas parades scheduled for Tuesday night… drier air will move into the state during the day Thursday with gradual clearing by afternoon.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for most of Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi for Monday afternoon and Monday night, with a “marginal risk” into far West Alabama…

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The best combination of instability, shear, and dynamic support will remain west of Alabama Monday night, but a few strong storms are certainly possible over the western counties of the state. But, the good news for now is that the overall severe weather threat looks fairly low.

RAIN AMOUNTS: New guidance this morning from WPC (NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center) suggests amounts from 2 to 4 inches for North/Central Alabama from Monday through Thursday…

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Understand we need rain amounts of 8 to 12 inches to end this drought. It takes time to get into a drought, and it also takes time to get out of them. But, this is a very important and beneficial rain event for our state.

Keep an eye on the blog for updates…

Light Rain Tomorrow; Stormy Early Next Week

| November 22, 2016 @ 3:30 pm

MACKEREL SKY: We have a field of altocumulus clouds across Alabama this afternoon… ahead of a storm system to the west. A beautiful November sky… photo below is from @ace123michael

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Temperatures are in the 60s, and the low levels remain extremely dry with dew points between 5 and 15 degrees.

TOMORROW: A short wave aloft will push showers into Alabama during the afternoon hours; SPC suggests some thunder is possible over North and West Alabama, but the air will be stable and we won’t expect any severe weather problems. Showers will remain possible through tomorrow night, but this will be a light rain event with amounts generally around 0.10″. Some spots over Northwest Alabama could see a quarter of an inch… this kind of rain certainly isn’t significant considering the exceptional drought we are in, but it will help forestry officials and their constant battle against wildfires.

The main window for showers will come from 12:00 noon tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Thursday.

THANKSGIVING DAY: It is possible we could see a little light rain lingering early Thursday morning over far East Alabama, but the showers should be mostly over by 6:00 a.m. Morning clouds will give way to a partly sunny afternoon, and the high will be close to 70 degrees. A very comfortable day.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny days, fair nights. The high Friday will be close to 70, but temperatures will drop about 10 degrees Saturday with a surge of cooler air; the high will be close to 60 for most communities. Many spots will see a light freeze early Sunday with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s.

IRON BOWL: A beautiful day for football in Tuscaloosa Saturday. For our state’s biggest game of the year (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30p CT kickoff at Bryant Denny Stadium), the sky will be sunny with temperatures falling from 61 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s during the second half.

STORMY WEATHER RETURNS: A dynamic storm system will impact Alabama early next week; we have excellent model agreement. A vigorous upper trough will spin up a deep surface low over the Upper Midwest Monday, and the trailing cold front will bring rain and strong storms to the Deep South. For now it looks like the main impact in Alabama will come Monday night. We will need to monitor this system for severe weather potential… and on the positive side rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely.

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Active weather should continue into December; ensemble guidance from the reliable European global model is still showing almost 8 inches of rain around here through early January. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend with highs mostly in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

EYES ON OTTO: Now the 7th hurricane of the season in the far Southwest Caribbean; it moves into Central America Thanksgiving Day, and is far from the U.S. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Wet At Times Today; A Dry Weekend

| May 20, 2016 @ 6:29 am

RADAR CHECK: A large MCS (mesoscale convective system) has been moving across the southern half of the state during the pre-dawn hours, and new showers and storms are forming over North Alabama at daybreak.

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Our friends at the Storm Prediction Center have much of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe weather…

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The good news is that the early morning storm mass over South Alabama has disrupted wind fields across Alabama, and that should lessen the risk of severe storms this afternoon. And, it should also mean lowered rain amounts since the inflow from the Gulf has been cut off for a while. Still, heavier storms later today could produce small hail and gusty winds as they pass through during the peak of the daytime heating process.

Showers and storms today will be more scattered than earlier thought, but still most communities should see around 1/2 inch of rain, with isolated amounts to one inch where heavier storms develop. Showers and storms will taper off early tonight as drier air begins to work into the state.

THE WEEKEND: We could see some lingering clouds early tomorrow morning, otherwise we expect mostly sunny, warm weather tomorrow and Sunday with high temperatures close to, or just over 80 degrees. Humidity levels will be a bit lower, and we should drop into the 50s early Sunday morning.

NEXT WEEK: Warm, dry weather continues Monday and Tuesday… then we will mention just the risk of widely scattered afternoon showers Wednesday through Friday; nothing to suggest anything really heavy widespread. Highs will be in the 80s… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: The Hangout Music Festival is this weekend at Gulf Shores… they had some big storms early this morning, and a few additional showers and storms are possible later today and early tonight. But, it won’t rain all day, and the sun will break out at times. Then, the sky will be mostly sunny tomorrow and Sunday. Highs will be close to 80 on the immediate coast; the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 79 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

REGIONS TRADITION: Despite occasional showers and storms today, they should be able to get some golf in at Greystone. Better chance of a stronger storm comes this afternoon, and the high will be in the 77-80 degree range. The weather will be fine tomorrow and Sunday with ample sunshine and highs close to 80 degrees. Get more information about the tournament here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: Coming up at the Hoover Met May 24-29… for now the weather looks warm and dry Tuesday, then we will mention warm, humid conditions Wednesday through the weekend (May 25-29) with only widely scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have a weather program this morning at Hamilton Elementary School in Marion County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Cool, Wet Weather Continues

| April 14, 2016 @ 6:21 am

PERIODS OF RAIN: Some of the heaviest rain at daybreak is over Southeast Alabama, with light to moderate showers showing up over the northern half of the state…

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An upper low west of the state will keep us cloudy and cool with occasional showers through tonight. We stay in the 60s today, well below the average high of 74 for April 14.

TOMORROW: A cold air damming pattern (CAD) will bring cooler air into the eastern counties of the state, where they will hold in the cool 50s most of the day. Periods of mostly light rain will continue; additional rain totals from now through tomorrow night will be close to 1/2 inch for the northern half of the state, with amounts closer to 1 inch for South Alabama.

SATURDAY: CAD patterns often take longer to break down that models suggest, and no doubt there is a good chance clouds will linger into Saturday morning. And, the high resolution (4km) NAM and European (ECMWF) models suggest we will need to hang on to some risk of lingering showers. and we will lean in that direction in the forecast. The high Saturday afternoon will be in the 67-70 degree range.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Delightful weather for Alabama, with sunny warm days, and clear pleasant nights. We reach the mid 70s Sunday, followed by 80 degree warmth Monday and Tuesday.

Showers should return toward the end of next week, but no sign of any severe weather problems around here. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: The big event is coming up at the Barber Motorsports Park April 22-24… too early for a specific forecast, but at this point the weather looks warm and rather showery. Get ticket information here.

AT THE BEACH: Occasional showers and storms will continue through tomorrow, but the weekend will be brighter with sunshine returning Saturday and Sunday. The dry weather continues into early next week with highs generally in the 70s on the immediate coast… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have a weather program today at Coldwater Elementary School in Calhoun County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Cool, Wet Weather Through Friday

| April 13, 2016 @ 3:23 pm

RADAR CHECK: Light rain is falling over parts of Central Alabama this afternoon… otherwise the sky is cloudy with temperatures in the 60s.

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TONIGHT/TOMORROW: A wave of low pressure on a stalled surface front to the south will mean cool, wet weather with periods of rain, and possibly a thunderstorm. Additional rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are expected, and while there could be some thunder, there won’t be a severe weather threat. A cold air damming (CAD) pattern setting up means some East Alabama communities will hold in the 50s all day tomorrow; highs will be in the 60s elsewhere.

FRIDAY: Cloudy, cool weather continues. The “wedge” front pushes deeper into Alabama, and most places along and east of I-65 won’t make it out of the 50s. Some patchy light rain will linger, but amounts should be fairly light.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Clouds could linger over parts of the state Saturday morning, but the sky becomes sunny by afternoon as the CAD pattern breaks down. Sunshine will be out in full force Sunday. Highs will be in the 60s Saturday, followed by mid 70s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The overall pattern looks pretty quiet as an upper ridge builds; the high will be around 80 each day for much of the week. A few showers are possible by Wednesday or Thursday, but it certainly doesn’t look like a big event. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms continue at times through Friday, but the weekend will be brighter with sunshine returning Saturday and Sunday; highs from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach will remain mostly in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: The big event at the Barber Motorsports Park is April 22-24… too early for a specific forecast, but the pattern favors mild to warm temperatures. Get ticket information here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the 1st graders at Margaret Elementary in St. Clair County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Good Soaking Tonight

| April 11, 2016 @ 3:31 pm

RADAR CHECK: Rain has become widespread across the northern half of the state this afternoon; thunderstorms are over the western counties…

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Rain and storms will continue across Alabama tonight with rain amounts of around one inch for most places. The overall severe weather threat is very low with a stable airmass.

TOMORROW: Rain and storms will end during the morning hours, and by tomorrow afternoon most of the rain will be over South Alabama, where SPC has defined a “marginal risk” of severe storms…

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A few peeks of sunshine are possible tomorrow afternoon over the northern half of the state, and the high will be in the 67 to 70 degree range.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The surface front will remain stationary over South Alabama, and it will drift back and forth as a couple of waves move along the front. This means the sky will be generally cloudy on these days, and there will be a risk of scattered showers. Nothing too heavy, and the most widespread rain will most likely come over South Alabama. Highs both days will fall between 65 and 70 degrees for most communities.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A drier airmass will drop into the state Friday, and it looks generally dry at this point, and the weekend looks delightful, with sunny mild days and clear nights. We reach the mid 70s Saturday, and have potential for upper 70s Sunday as high pressure aloft builds in.

NEXT WEEK: Warm, dry weather is the story Monday and Tuesday; there will be a risk of showers during the latter half of the week, but for now we see no evidence of a really big rain event, or a severe weather threat. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Generally cloudy weather continues on the coast through Friday with some risk of showers and storms each day from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores, but the weekend ahead looks great with sunshine returning in full force. Highs will stay mostly in the 70s… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the first graders at Elvin Hill Elementary in Columbiana… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…