Tag: showers

Unsettled Weather For The Rest Of The Week

| January 16, 2017 @ 3:08 pm

THIS AFTERNOON: Another warm January day with temperatures mostly in the upper 60s and low 70s; just a few isolated showers are over North Alabama. Clouds will thicken tonight with a weakening surface front approaching from the west.

MID-WEEK: We will mention a chance of showers tomorrow and tomorrow night as the front gets close, but there will be little upper support, and rain amounts should be on the light side, generally 1/4″ or less for the places that do see rain. Otherwise, the sky will remain mostly cloudy and tomorrow’s high will be in the low 70s.

The front will wash out Wednesday, and while we will still mention a chance of widely scattered showers, a decent part of the day should be dry. The high Wednesday will be in the 65-70 degree range, and the sky will feature more clouds than sun.

The next wave from the west will bring rain into the state Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. This one will have better dynamics, and we could see some strong thunderstorms Thursday night. But, at the moment it looks like the best instability will be a little west of Alabama, and for now the overall severe weather threat looks fairly low. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely with this system.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Rain and storms should end early in the day Friday, and the sun should break out with temperatures rising back into the low to mid 70s as the warm January a pattern continues. Then, over the weekend, a rather robust weather system will approach from the west. We will mention a chance of showers during the day Saturday as the Gulf of Mexico will be “wide open”, but the main event will come Saturday night and Sunday with rain and thunderstorms. The latest GFS is trending a little slower, suggesting the main threat of strong storms will come Sunday. And, with much better instability, severe storms could certainly be a possibility. Still a little too early to be specific about timing and the overall magnitude of the threat.

On the positive side, rain amounts over the weekend could approach 2 inches… don’t forget the northern half of the state is still in a drought.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Monday looks cloudy and much cooler with a chance of some light rain; the high will drop back into the low to mid 50s, where we should be in January. And, the pattern will favor even colder air toward the end of the month.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

A Few Showers For North Alabama Today

| January 11, 2017 @ 6:11 am

RADAR CHECK: A few showers are over the northern half of Alabama early this morning… moving east/northeast…

The sky is mostly cloudy, and temperatures are in the upper 50s and low 60s at daybreak. Expect a high in the upper 60s today; clouds will persist and we will maintain the risk of scattered showers, but nothing heavy or widespread.

We note the average high for Birmingham on January 11 is 52; based on averages this is the coldest time of the year; the average high slips up to 53 on January 19.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: An upper ridge will continue to build across the Southeast U.S… pushing highs up into the low 70s both day, a good 20 degrees above average. We will hang on to a small risk of a shower tomorrow; Friday should be dry.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A far cry from last weekend’s ice issues; we project a high between 70 and 73 Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. The upper ridge will keep Alabama dry, while some places across the Central U.S. deal with freezing rain and ice (in a broad zone from Amarillo to Cincinnati).

NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to trend slower with the next weather feature to the west; it now hints our next decent chance of rain will come around Wednesday of next week. And, for now, it doesn’t look like a really big event, and no risk of severe weather. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

35 YEARS AGO: On January 11, 1982, the low in Birmingham was 1 below zero. Then, in coming days, Birmingham would experience one of its worst ice storms of the twentieth century as freezing rain and sleet swept into Central Alabama about midday on January 12, 1982. Morning forecasts had called for a winter storm watch for occasional sleet and freezing rain that would arrive by sundown. By mid-morning, as freezing rain and sleet across South Alabama was spreading rapidly north, the watch was changed to a winter storm warning.

The snow arrived about 8 hours earlier than anticipated in the Birmingham area and quickly changed over to a mix of freezing rain and sleet that turned roads in skating rinks. Thousands of motorists had to abandon their vehicles on roads and hike home or spend the night in shelters. Brookwood Village mall became a huge shelter. So many wrecks occurred that the Birmingham Police Department could not answer the calls for accident investigation. As temperatures hovered near the freezing mark through the night, freezing rain created a thick coating on all exposed objects. Trees snapped, pulling down power lines and putting as many as 750,000 Alabamians in the dark. A state of emergency was declared in Alabama and National Guard Armories were opened to serve as shelters.

WORLD CLASS TENNIS RETURNS TO BIRMINGHAM: The BJCC will host the first-round tie against Switzerland February 3rd-5th. Single-day tickets are on sale now. Get them while they last! Buy tickets here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be speaking at a meeting of the Alabama Golf Course Superintendents Association in Oxford… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Rain Ends Later Today; Arctic Front Arrives Thursday

| December 6, 2016 @ 6:21 am

RADAR CHECK: We have lingering showers across Alabama early this morning…

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This rain will continue to end from west to east, and most of it will be out of the state by late morning. Clouds linger through the afternoon, and the high today will be in the mid 60s.

Tomorrow looks cool and dry, although we will see more clouds than sun…the high will be in about ten degrees cooler, in the mid 50s.

COLDEST SO FAR: An Arctic front will blow into Alabama Thursday morning; ahead of the front a band of rain showers is likely, but moisture will be limited, and amounts should be 1/4″ or less. The big story is the cold air; following the front’s passage north winds will increase to 15-25 mph with higher gusts, and temperatures won’t get past the low 40s.

Friday will be a sunny but very cold day. The low early Friday morning will be in the 20-25 degree range, and most communities across North/Central Alabama won’t make it out of the 30s during the afternoon. Some places over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama could stay below freezing all day.

By early Saturday morning, temperatures will drop into the 18-22 degree range. Looks like the record low for December 10, 13 degrees set in 1995, is safe.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be a sunny day with a high in the upper 40s as a warming trend begins, but clouds move in Sunday, and some rain could reach North and Central Alabama by Sunday night. The high Sunday will be in the upper 50s.

The European model (ECMWF) holds the rain off until Monday; one way or another this looks like a system that will bring about 1/2″ of rain to the state. And, toward the end of next week there seems to be potential for another shot of cold, Arctic air. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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We note there is NO sign of any snow or ice issues for Alabama for the next ten days based on current model output.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have a weather program this morning at Southside Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Light Showers Tonight; Stormy Early Next Week

| November 23, 2016 @ 2:43 pm

RADAR CHECK: So far just spotty light rain has been falling over Northwest Alabama; elsewhere we have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures between 67 and 70 in most places. Very low dewpoints/dry air has prevented much rain today, but with moist air advecting into the state from the west tonight, we still expect periods of light rain with an approaching upper trough. Model guidance suggests rain amounts from 0.05″ to 0.15″… not really meaningful when it comes to our exceptional drought, but it will help the wildfire situation a bit just to get a little water in the ground.

Also… look out for some dense fog developing late tonight and tomorrow morning.

DROUGHT MONITOR: New data released this morning shows 35 percent of Alabama in “exceptional drought” conditions…

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THANKSGIVING DAY: Light rain could linger over East Alabama early tomorrow morning, but morning clouds will give way to some afternoon sunshine, and the high will be close to 70 degrees. A very comfortable day.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny days, fair nights. The high Friday will be close to 70, then expect 60s Saturday and Sunday as slightly cooler air slips into the state.

IRON BOWL: A beautiful day for football in Tuscaloosa Saturday. For our state’s biggest game of the year (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30p CT kickoff at Bryant Denny Stadium), the sky will be sunny with temperatures falling from 64 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s during the second half.

STORMY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK: A dynamic storm system will impact Alabama early next week; global model data suggests the main threat of rain and storms will come Tuesday and Tuesday night. Prior to the storms moving in, we will have a “wide open” Gulf of Mexico Monday, pushing dew points up into the 60s and setting up a very moist, unstable environment, something we haven’t seen here since summer.

Using CIPS Analog Guidance (looking at past events with similar surface and upper air setups), there concern this could be a high impact event with the dual threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Too early to be specific, but something to watch in coming days.

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Another big rain event seems possible toward the end of the week and the following weekend… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days and fair nights on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend with highs in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

OTTO: The system in the far Southwest Caribbean was downgraded to a 70 mph tropical storm this morning, but is expected to regain hurricane strength tonight, before moving into Central America tomorrow. It will then emerge into the eastern Pacific Friday and will get a new name.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here tomorrow morning… Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Showers Later Today And Tonight

| November 23, 2016 @ 6:32 am

TO THE WEST: Rain continues to fall this morning through parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Texas, and that is progressing our way as a short wave aloft moves eastward.

Here in Alabama, the low levels remain very dry; dewpoints are generally in the 20s, and that is the biggest obstacle for decent rain amounts around here later today. Showers will enter Northwest Alabama by early afternoon, and we will mention the potential for showers on through tonight, and even early tomorrow morning. SPC even suggests some thunder is possible west of a line from Huntsville to Birmingham to Demopolis…

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Rain amounts for most will be 0.10″ or less, a few spots could see 0.20″. This is not meaningful in breaking a drought, but it will help a bit with the wildfire problem.

THANKSGIVING DAY: Looks like we will need to hang on to some risk of light rain early tomorrow morning, mainly over East Alabama, but morning clouds should give way to a partly sunny afternoon with a high around 70 degrees. A very comfortable day.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny days, fair nights. The high Friday will be close to 70, dropping into the 60s over the weekend. Many places will see a light freeze early Sunday morning.

IRON BOWL: A beautiful day for football in Tuscaloosa Saturday. For our state’s biggest game of the year (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30p CT kickoff at Bryant Denny Stadium), the sky will be sunny with temperatures falling from 64 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s during the second half.

STORMY SETUP EARLY NEXT WEEK: A dynamic weather system will impact Alabama… good news is that significant rain is likely, but the bad news is that strong to severe storms will be very possible.

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Timing will probably change, but it seems like the main window for storms will come Tuesday, and possibly Tuesday night. Too early to really determine the severe weather potential, but we will need to watch the setup in coming days as the event gets closer. On the positive side a good chance this drops at least one inch of rain on North/Central Alabama.

LONG RANGE: The pattern continue to look active through December, with the European model showing potential for some very beneficial rain around here…

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the Gulf Coast through the weekend with highs mostly in the 70s from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

OTTO: The late season hurricane will move into Central America tomorrow, and then into the Pacific Friday (when it gets a new name). The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Showers Late Tonight; Much Colder Tomorrow

| November 18, 2016 @ 3:03 pm

RAIN GETTING CLOSER: A strong cold front will push a band of showers, and maybe even a thunderstorm, into far Northwest Alabama tonight. The SPC outlook suggests no severe weather threat, but a chance of some thunder over Northwest Alabama after 9:00 p.m…

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The band of weakening showers will move across the rest of North/Central Alabama after midnight. We still expect most places to see less than 0.10″; all it takes is 0.01″ at the Birmingham Airport to end our string of consecutive dry days at 61.

Showers should be over, or out of the state by 6:00 a.m. Most of you will sleep through the rare rain event.

WEEKEND CHILL: The sky becomes sunny tomorrow, but the day will be windy and sharply cooler with a high only in the 50s; a northwest wind of 15-25 mph will make it feel cooler. Then, we drop into the low 30s early Sunday; the NAM and the GFS are printing a low of 31 for Birmingham early Sunday… that will be the first freeze of the season if the forecast verifies.

Sunday will be another sunny and cool day with a high in the 50s, and the coldest morning should be early Monday when upper 20s are likely. Colder spots will see low to mid 20s… easily our coldest morning so far this season.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school football playoff games tonight, rain is possible over the northwest tip of the state, otherwise clouds will increase with temperatures in the 60s.

You will need a warm jacket for the college games tomorrow night…

Alabama will host Chattanooga tomorrow night at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 52 at kickoff to near 40 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts Alabama A&M tomorrow night at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… mostly fair with temperatures falling from the low 50s at kickoff, and into the low 40s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: We will have a good chance of rain Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night; the latest model guidance suggests rain amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of North and Central Alabama. Then, for now Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday look dry and pleasant with high in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

Confidence in the forecast for Iron Bowl Saturday remains low… the latest GFS run hints rain could slip into Alabama late in the day or Saturday night (November 26)… this will probably change again.

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights through Tuesday from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores. Highs in the 60s over the weekend; 70s Monday and Tuesday. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: The disturbance in the far Southwest Caribbean remains disorganized, and the rest of the Atlantic basin remains quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00 a.m…. Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday Enjoy the weekend!

Showers Late Tonight; Much Colder Tomorrow

| November 18, 2016 @ 6:34 am

COULD THE STREAK BE ENDING? Today will be the 61st consecutive day without measurable rain for Birmingham; we blew past the old record of 52 dry days in a row (set in 1924) earlier this month. Could we get 0.01″ in the official bucket after midnight tonight and break the streak? Very possible.

Today will be warm and dry with a high between 77 and 80 degrees for most places along with a partly to mostly sunny sky. And, while we enjoy the November warmth, a blizzard is raging across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Strong storms will form along the trailing cold front; a “marginal” severe weather risk is defined from near Shreveport to Chicago.

FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT: Clouds move in this evening ahead of the front, and the band of showers will enter the northwest corner of Alabama sometime between 10:00 and midnight. Some thunder is possible around Muscle Shoals/Florence, but no severe weather is expected.

Then, after midnight, a weakening band of showers will move down through North Alabama. For most, rain amounts will be under 0.10″, so this won’t make a dent in the drought, but there is a good chance it ends the 61 day dry spell at Birmingham… we just need 0.01″. Most of you will sleep through the showers since they will come from midnight through 6:00 a.m.

COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON: Tomorrow will be a sunny, but windy and very cool day with a high in the 50s; a northwest wind of 12-25 mph will make it feel colder. Sunday will be also be sunny and cool with a high in the 50s; not as windy as Saturday.

GROWING SEASON ENDS: We project a low near 31 early Sunday and in the upper 20s Monday; for many North/Central Alabama communities this will be the first freeze of the season.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school football playoff games tonight, rain is possible over the northwest tip of the state, otherwise clouds will increase with temperatures in the 60s.

You will need a warm jacket for the college games tomorrow night…

Alabama will host Chattanooga tomorrow night at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 52 at kickoff to near 40 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts Alabama A&M tomorrow night at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… mostly fair with temperatures falling from the low 50s at kickoff, and into the low 40s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: Global models continue to show a weather system moving into Alabama on Wednesday, with a good chance of rain, and maybe even a little thunder. The latest guidance is suggesting rain amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch for the northern half of the state; this should be our best rain event since mid-September.

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Thanksgiving Day for now looks dry and pleasant with a high in the 60s. Beyond that, forecast confidence is very low in this active pattern; for the moment global models look dry for Black Friday and Iron Bowl Saturday with seasonal temperatures. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through Tuesday. Highs in the 70s today, 60s over the weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Next Round Of Showers Friday Night

| November 15, 2016 @ 3:39 pm

RADAR CHECK: Quite the excitement across West Alabama this morning when rain was falling… a few raindrops were even seen across the Birmingham metro…

Unfortunately, there was not enough rain to measure at Birmingham, so the historic dry spell continues. Today is the 58th consecutive day with no measurable rain.

A total of 0.26″ was measured in downtown Demopolis, and a thunderstorm even formed over Marengo County earlier this afternoon. We still have a few lingering showers over Southwest Alabama… moving southeast…

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Away from those showers, the sky is partly sunny with temperatures mostly in the upper 60s.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: Expect sunshine in full supply both days with a warming trend. We rise into the low 70s tomorrow, followed by upper 70s Thursday. A very real possibility a few places touch 80 degrees Thursday afternoon considering the lack of soil moisture.

FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT: The day Friday will be very mild and dry with a high in the upper 70s, but clouds move in Friday night ahead of a cold front, and a band of showers will move through North/Central Alabama. The main window for showers will come from about 9:00 p.m. Friday through 6:00 a.m. Saturday, and rain amounts should be light; under 1/2 inch. Little if any rain will fall south of I-20.

CHILLY WEEKEND: The coolest air so far this season will blow in following the front… Saturday will be breezy with a high only in the upper 50s, and a chilly north wind of 10-20 mph will make it feel cooler. Sunday will be sunny and very cool with a high only in the low to mid 50s; many places north of Birmingham won’t make it out of the 40s.

And, a freeze looks likely Sunday night/Monday morning, with most communities dropping into the 26-32 degree range by daybreak Monday.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school football playoff games Friday night, rain is possible over the northwest corner of the state, otherwise clouds will increase with temperatures in the 60s.

Alabama will host Chattanooga Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 54 at kickoff into the chilly low 40s for the second half.

Auburn hosts Alabama A&M Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… mostly fair with temperatures falling from the mid 50s at kickoff, and into the mid 40s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: A warm front begins to push northward across the state Tuesday, and that could bring some rain late Tuesday or Tuesday night, but rain will be more likely Wednesday as another cold front approaches. Confidence in the rain event is high, but questions remain about timing… the American global model shows the main chance of rain Wednesday, while the new Euro (ECMWF) holds off the rain until Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: A disturbance in the western Caribbean could become Tropical Storm Otto later this week; steering currents are weak and little movement is expected in the short term.

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs in the 70s through Friday, dropping into the 60s over the weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing everyone today at the Sprayberry Education Center in Tuscaloosa… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…