Tag: storms

Morning Storms, Afternoon Clearing

| November 30, 2016 @ 6:19 am

RADAR CHECK: A long line of strong storms is pushing southward across Alabama early this morning…

screen-shot-2016-11-30-at-6-01-56-am

Flash flood warnings are in effect for Cullman, Morgan, and parts of Madison, Marshall, and Jackson counties, where rain amounts have exceeded two inches in many places.

The good news is that we have no active severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings (as of 6:15am), but a tornado watch remains in effect for parts of Northeast, Central, and Southwest Alabama until 10 a.m. CT. I would say the main threats this morning will come from flooding and gusty straight line winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. In fact a storm moving into Bibb County is showing signs of rotation as I write this shortly after 6:00 a.m.

TRAGIC NIGHT: At least three people died in a tornado in the small Jackson County community of Rosalie last night, and four children were critically injured after a tornado struck a 24 hour daycare facility at Ider, in DeKalb County. Tornado damage was reported in parts of Pickens, Lamar, Marion, Winston, Jackson, Madison, and DeKalb counties. We will know much more later this morning after the sun comes up and NWS survey teams get into the field.

today

THE DAY AHEAD: Rain and storms will end from northwest to southeast, and we will begin to see some clearing this afternoon as drier air works into the state. Temperatures will fall slowly during the day.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Cool, dry weather with sunny days and clear nights; highs from 57 to 60 tomorrow, followed by low 60s Friday. Lows will be in the 30s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the 7A Alabama high school football championship game in Auburn tomnight (McGill-Toolen Catholic vs. Hoover)… the good news is that it now looks like most of the rain will be gone in time for the 7pm kickoff, just an outside chance of a lingering shower. Temperatures will fall into the 50s during the game. Auburn will be rain-free for the rest of the games tomorrow and Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Clouds increase Saturday, and another round of rain is likely statewide Sunday. Highs for the weekend should be in the 50s; the air Sunday will be stable and no severe weather is expected (probably no thunder).

NEXT WEEK: Unsettled, potentially stormy weather is the story through Wednesday night with occasional showers and thunderstorms. Another setup for strong to severe storms is shaping up by Wednesday based on global model runs. Then, the coldest air so far this season invades the state by Thursday and Friday; the GFS is evening hinting at snow flurries Thursday (don’t count on it!). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon, and stay tuned to the blog for updates through the morning as the storms work south and east…

Significant Severe Weather Threat Tonight

| November 29, 2016 @ 3:33 pm

Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and graphics associated with this discussion…

CLOSER LOOK AT TONIGHT’S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: A dynamic weather system approaching Alabama from the west will bring potential for severe thunderstorms to our state tonight and tomorrow morning.

Dewpoints will continue to surge this evening, reaching the upper 60s by 9-10:00… this will set up a volatile airmass that is moist and unstable. Surface based CAPE values are expected to rise to near 1,500 j/kg, very adequate for severe weather in Alabama in the cool season.

SPC has upgraded the risk over parts of North and Central Mississippi to “moderate”… and a tornado watch is in effect to the west for parts of Mississippi and Louisiana.

In Alabama, an “enhanced” risk covers the northwest part of the state, with the standard “slight risk” down to Montgomery. The best combination of shear and instability will be in the “enhanced” risk area, and accordingly that is the highest tornado threat area as well.

stp

A few strong/violent tornadoes are possible across the “enhanced” risk area tonight.

The threat will shift to mostly damaging straight line winds with a squall line during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow.

TIMING: The main window for severe storms will open up around 8:00 tonight over Northwest Alabama… for Birmingham the squall line won’t arrive until after midnight.

al_swody1__2_

RAIN AMOUNTS: Additional rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely over the next 36 hours, extremely beneficial for a parched state. Some minor flooding is possible during the heavier storms tonight.

CALL TO ACTION: We haven’t had active weather in a long time. Be sure you can hear severe weather watches and warnings if they are needed. And, since this active weather will come during the late night/pre-dawn hours, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed with a battery backup. A good warning app needs to be on your phone as well, like WeatherRadio by WDT.

And, you might want to review your “action plan” with the family just in case. Your safest place is a small room on the lowest floor, near the center of the house, and away from windows. You don’t have to be underground. And, if you live in a mobile home you have to get out, and into a safe place in a site built structure.

If by chance we go go into “wall to wall” severe weather coverage, you can watch us on the ABC 33/40 mobile apps…

ABC 33/40 iOS App
ABC 33/40 Android App

TOMORROW: Rain will end during the morning hours, with some clearing possible by afternoon. Temperatures will hold steady in the 60s, maybe even falling a few degrees during the day.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the 7A Alabama high school football championship game in Auburn tomorrow night (McGill-Toolen Catholic vs. Hoover)… the good news is that it now looks like most of the rain will be gone in time for the 7pm kickoff, just an outside chance of a lingering shower. Temperatures will fall into the 50s during the game. Auburn will be rain-free for the rest of the games Thursday and Friday.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Cool, dry weather with sunny days and clear nights; highs 57-60, with lows mostly in the 30s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be partly sunny with a high in the upper 50s, but the GFS brings rain back into Alabama Sunday. And, periods of rain will likely continue into early next week, through Tuesday. No severe storms expected this time, just more welcome rain.

New guidance from NOAA’s WPC suggests 3-5 inches of rain (not counting last night) around here over the next seven days…

wpc_total_precip_birmingham_28-1

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Stay tuned to the blog for frequent updates through the night… and here is the live stream from Storm Chaser 33/40, in the field tonight…

Severe Storms Possible Tonight

| November 29, 2016 @ 6:37 am

THIS MORNING: Rain continues to fall early this morning generally east of a line from Anniston to Montgomery to Jackson. Amounts across North/Central Alabama last night were generally in the 1-2 inch range, with isolated heavier totals. Some reports…

Calera (NWS office) 2.50″
Pelham (Ballantrae) 2.44″
Selma 2.40″
Anniston 2.17″
Coker 2.15″
Clanton 2.04″
Jemison 2.02″
Heflin 2.00″
Bessemer 1.91″
Greystone 1.75″
Black Creek (near Gadsden) 1.65″
Cottondale 1.57″
Tuscaloosa Airport 1.45″
Birmingham Airport 1.17″
Arley 1.09″

A decent part of the day today will be dry, with only isolated showers along with a mix of sun and clouds. Best chance of ran through late afternoon will come over the southern half of the state; temperatures should reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Very balmy for late November.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT: An impulse coming through the base of the long wave upper trough west of the state will bring another round of rain and storms to our state tonight, and some of the storms could be severe. SPC has an “enhanced” risk of severe storms up for the northwest corner of the state, with the standard “slight” risk down to Anniston and Montgomery…

al_swody1-1

Dewpoints will surge into the 67-70 degree range tonight, making for a very unstable atmosphere. Surface based CAPE values will rise to near 1,200 j/kg tonight, rather robust for the cool season.

PLACEMENT/THREATS: The highest combination of shear and instability will come over Northwest Alabama, where STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values rise to 3 units.

9p_stp-2

Highest tornado threat tonight will come across Northwest Alabama in this zone; a significant tornado (F3 or higher) can’t be ruled out. Storms should slowly evolve into a long squall line after midnight, with the main threat shifting to damaging straight line winds during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday.

TIMING: Isolated severe storms could begin to fire as early as 4-6 p.m… but the core window for severe storms and tornado activity across North and West Alabama will come from roughly 6:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m…. but storms could stay severe on past 2 a.m. to the south and east, but the main threat then will be from damaging straight line winds.

RAIN AMOUNTS: Additional rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely over the next 36 hours, extremely beneficial for a parched state. Some minor flooding is possible during the heavier storms tonight.

CALL TO ACTION: We haven’t had active weather in a long time. Be sure you can hear severe weather watches and warnings if they are needed. And, since this active weather will come during the late night/pre-dawn hours, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed with a battery backup. A good warning app needs to be on your phone as well, like WeatherRadio by WDT.

And, you might want to review your “action plan” with the family just in case. Your safest place is a small room on the lowest floor, near the center of the house, and away from windows. You don’t have to be underground. And, if you live in a mobile home you have to get out, and into a safe place in a site built structure.

If by chance we go go into “wall to wall” severe weather coverage, you can watch us on the ABC 33/40 mobile apps…

ABC 33/40 iOS App
ABC 33/40 Android App

TOMORROW: Rain will end during the morning hours, with some clearing possible by afternoon. Temperatures will hold steady in the 60s, maybe even falling a few degrees during the day.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the 7A Alabama high school football championship game in Auburn tomorrow night (McGill-Toolen Catholic vs. Hoover)… the good news is that it now looks like most of the rain will be gone in time for the 7pm kickoff, just an outside chance of a lingering shower. Temperatures will fall into the 50s during the game. Auburn will be rain-free for the rest of the games Thursday and Friday.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Cool, dry weather with sunny days and clear nights; highs 57-60, with lows mostly in the 30s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be partly sunny with a high in the upper 50s, but the GFS brings rain back into Alabama Sunday. And, periods of rain will likely continue into early next week, through Tuesday. No severe storms expected this time, just more welcome rain.

New guidance from NOAA’s WPC suggests 3-5 inches of rain (not counting last night) around here over the next seven days…

wpc_total_precip_birmingham_28-1

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be doing a weather program this morning at Vestavia Hills West Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Two Rounds Of Heavy Rain/Storms Ahead

| November 28, 2016 @ 3:41 pm

THIS AFTERNOON: Rain continues to fall across Northwest Alabama this afternoon as “round one” of our two punch system impacts the Deep South. To the west, tornado watches cover much of Mississippi and Louisiana, where the air is more unstable and dynamic support is strong.

STRONG GRADIENT WINDS: Here in Alabama, strong south winds of 15-30 mph continue as the pressure gradient continues to tighten; ridge tops could see non thunderstorm winds gusting to 50 mph this evening, with potential for tree and power line damage. A wind advisory is in effect for most of Alabama.

ROUND ONE: A line of strong storms will move across Alabama tonight; the high resolution HRRR model suggests the line will be moving through places like Birmingham/Tuscaloosa/Anniston/Gadsden in the 8-11 p.m. time frame.

Instability values should be rather marginal tonight, limiting the severe weather potential. Still, storms tonight could produce strong, possibly damaging winds, and an isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out, mainly over West Alabama. A severe weather watch could be required, as well as a few warnings. Pay close attention to them if they are needed.

The rain tapers off after midnight.

TOMORROW: A decent part of the day tomorrow will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds, although a few widely scattered showers are possible. Temperatures rise into the mid to upper 70s, and dew points will show a steady rise during the day as well with a big jump in low level moisture.

ROUND TWO: A more significant severe weather threat is shaping up for Alabama tomorrow night… SPC has much of North and West Alabama in the standard “slight risk”…

al_swody2

Dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s, surface based CAPE values (instability) will rise to near 1,500 j/kg, and a strengthening low level jet will bring potential for all modes of severe weather, including large hail, damaging straight line winds, and a few tornadoes. The main window for severe weather will come from 10:00 tomorrow night through 8:00 a.m. Wednesday.

tue_mid_stp

RAIN: We still project rain amounts in the 2-4 inch range for North/Central Alabama through Wednesday, with amounts of 1-2 inches for the southern counties of the state. Remember, we need 8 to 12 inches to get rid of the drought, but this will start the process in fine fashion. We could very well see some flooding issues during the heavier storms with a high level of runoff expected.

REMEMBER: We haven’t had active weather in a long time. Be sure you can hear severe weather watches and warnings if they are needed. And, since this active weather will come during the late night/pre-dawn hours, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed with a battery backup. A good warning app needs to be on your phone as well, like WeatherRadio by WDT.

And, you might want to review your “action plan” with the family just in case. Your safest place is a small room on the lowest floor, near the center of the house, and away from windows. You don’t have to be underground. And, if you live in a mobile home you have to get out, and into a safe place in a site built structure.

If by chance we go go into “wall to wall” severe weather coverage, you can watch us on the ABC 33/40 mobile apps…

ABC 33/40 iOS App
ABC 33/40 Android App

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the 7A Alabama high school football championship game in Auburn (McGill-Toolen Catholic vs. Hoover)… the good news is that it now looks like most of the rain will be gone in time for the 7pm kickoff, just an outside chance of a lingering shower. Temperatures will fall into the 50s during the game. Auburn will be rain-free for the rest of the games Thursday and Friday.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days will be cool and dry, with ample sunshine along with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday looks dry; beyond that confidence is low due to conflicting model output. Rain could return to Alabama as early as Sunday… the GFS holds the rain off until Monday night and Tuesday of next week. We will have a higher confidence forecast for the weekend in a few days after “rounds one and two” are gone.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I enjoyed speaking at the Rotary Club meeting today at Centre… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Dual Heavy Rain/Severe Storm Event In Two Rounds

| November 28, 2016 @ 6:14 am

MUCH TO DISCUSS: This will be the most significant rain event for Alabama since summer, and unfortunately with it comes the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. This will come in two rounds between now and Wednesday. Take some time to read through this discussion and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and graphics.

ROUND ONE: Moist air returns to Alabama today with rapidly rising dew points and a gusty south wind thanks to a tightening pressure gradient. A wind advisory is in effect for the northern third of Alabama; south winds will average 15-30 mph this afternoon with higher gusts. This gradient wind alone could bring down a few trees and power lines.

Scattered showers are possible through the day; the high this afternoon will be around 70 degrees for most places.

An organized band of rain and storms will move in from the west tonight. SPC has roughly the western half of the state in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather tonight, with a “marginal risk” over to Anniston and Gadsden…

al_swody1

The primary limiting factor for severe weather tonight will be the degree of instability. There is very little instability north of I-20, with moderate amounts for the southern two-thirds of the state. Shear values are very high, however, and there will be good dynamic support with a large scale upper trough to the west.

The primary threat tonight will come from strong, possibly damaging straight line thunderstorm winds and small hail, although a tornado can’t be completely ruled out. The main window for the heavier storms will come from 7:00 tonight through 7:00 a.m. tomorrow.

A decent part of the day tomorrow will be rain-free, with the sun out at times, and temperatures rising well into the 70s.

ROUND TWO: This will come tomorrow night into Wednesday morning as an embedded wave in the southwest flow aloft approaches. Instability values will be much higher, with surface dew points well into the 60s, and surface based CAPE values to 1,500 j/kg. SPC has much of the state in the standard “slight risk” of severe storms for this second round…

al_swody2

No doubt storms tomorrow night into early Wednesday will be capable of producing strong, possibly damaging straight line winds and hail.

We note the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values rise to 2 units or higher over parts of North and West Alabama at midnight tomorrow night, so a few tornadoes are possible as well.

tue_mid_stp

The main window for “round two” will come from 9:00 p.m. Tuesday through 9:00 a.m. Wednesday.

REMEMBER: We haven’t had active weather in a long time. Be sure you can hear severe weather watches and warnings if they are needed. And, since this active weather will come during the late night/pre-dawn hours, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed with a battery backup. A good warning app needs to be on your phone as well, like WeatherRadio by WDT.

And, you might want to review your “action plan” with the family just in case. Your safest place is a small room on the lowest floor, near the center of the house, and away from windows. You don’t have to be underground. And, if you live in a mobile home you have to get out, and into a safe place in a site built structure.

If by chance we go go into “wall to wall” severe weather coverage, you can watch us on the ABC 33/40 mobile apps…

ABC 33/40 iOS App
ABC 33/40 Android App

BENEFICIAL RAIN: Rain amounts of 2-4 inches are likely over the northern half of Alabama through Wednesday night, with 1-2 inches for the southern half of the state…

wpc_total_precip_birmingham_20-2

Understand, this won’t end the drought, but it sure will help. Most communities need 8 to 12 inches of rain to get back to where they need to be.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the 7A Alabama high school football championship game in Auburn (McGill-Toolen Catholic vs. Hoover)… the good news is that it now looks like most of the rain will be gone in time for the 7pm kickoff, just an outside chance of a lingering shower. Temperatures will fall into the 50s during the game. Auburn will be rain-free for the rest of the games Thursday and Friday.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days will be cool and dry, with ample sunshine along with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will remain cool and dry, but rain begins to return Sunday as a warm front lifts northward. Periods of rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms look likely Sunday night and Monday; for now it doesn’t look like a severe weather threat. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be speaking today at the weekly meeting of the Centre Rotary Club in Cherokee County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Beneficial Rain/Strong Storms Ahead

| November 27, 2016 @ 6:54 am

Here is an updated look at the rain/storm situation coming up in the days ahead for Alabama…

ROUND ONE: We are still expecting two rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Concerning “round one”, showers will begin to form across Alabama during the day tomorrow, but the most organized band of rain and storms will come tomorrow night into early Tuesday morning, generally between 8:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m.

SPC has a “marginal risk” of severe storms up for far West Alabama tomorrow night…

al_swody2

The storms will be strong initially as they move into West Alabama with potential for gusty winds and some small hail, but the overall severe weather risk is rather low with limited instability and wind fields that are less than impressive.

There are many Christmas parades scheduled across North/Central Alabama tomorrow night… stronger storms could impact West Alabama as early as 7:00 p.m… but for the rest of the state there is a decent chance those heavier storms arrive after the parades are over. But, understand lighter, scattered showers will be around during the early evening hours.

Most of the day Tuesday will be dry, with a mix of sun and clouds, as we wait on…

ROUND TWO: Another short wave embedded in a southwest flow aloft will bring more rain and storms to Alabama Tuesday night and Wednesday. Dewpoints will surge into the 60s Tuesday night, making for an unstable atmosphere with CAPE values to 500/750 j/kg over much of the state. SPC has most of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe storms for round two, with the standard “slight risk” from about Livingston and Linden south to Mobile…

al_swody3-2

It is difficult to really determine the actual severity of the threat at this point, we need to see the condition of the atmosphere after “round one” ends Tuesday morning. But, for now it looks like a fairly limited threat for the northern half of the state with potential for strong winds and some hail. Higher risk of a tornado Tuesday night and Wednesday could seem to be over far Southwest Alabama with the better combination of instability, lift, and shear.

RAIN TOTALS: New data from NOAA’s WPC (Weather Prediction Center) continues to suggest some really beneficial rain for Alabama, and the drought stricken Southeast U.S. For North/Central Alabama, rain amounts of 2-4 inches are likely from tomorrow through Thursday.

wpc_total_precip_birmingham_28

Something we can call celebrate. Keep an eye on the blog for updated forecasts over the next few days as we go through our first high impact weather event (other than the drought) in many months…