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Tag: "storms"

Showers/Storms Increasing Across Alabama

| 3:14 pm July 27, 2016

RADAR CHECK: A number of showers and thunderstorms have formed across North/Central Alabama this afternoon… Moving northeast…

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Heavier storms are producing heavy rain; they are moving northeast, and will diminish late tonight. On the positive side, heat levels are down as expected; most communities are in the upper 80s at mid-afternoon.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: A general weakness in the upper ridge will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the great state of Alabama. We can’t promise rain for everybody, but most communities will see one or two good downpours. Best chance of rain comes during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out late night or morning showers. Highs will be in the upper 80s tomorrow, and close to 90 degrees Friday afternoon.

THE WEEKEND: Not much change; a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with scattered showers and storms, most active from 1:00 until 9:00 p.m. Highs will be in the 90-93 degree range, right at seasonal levels for late July.

NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge should strengthen early in the week, so showers and storms could become a little fewer in number Monday and Tuesday; highs will stay in the low 90s. Then, some evidence showers and storms increase again late in the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A tropical wave now emerging off the coast of Africa has some chance of development over the next five days as it moves west/northwest. Way too early to determine if this will impact U.S. or any land area; just something to keep an eye on…

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AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend, with the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be taking a few days off… Brian Peters will have the next Weather Xtreme video here tomorrow morning…

Showers/Storms Slowly Increase In Number

| 5:24 am July 27, 2016

HEAT LEVELS DOWN; SHOWER COVERAGE UP: We expect this trend for the rest of the week as the upper ridge across the Deep South weakens a bit. Understand this still doesn’t mean it will rain everywhere, but the coverage of scattered showers and storms should be higher through Friday. The chance of any one spot getting wet today is in the 30-40 percent category, rising to 50-55 percent tomorrow and Friday. Best chance of showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t totally rule out a late night or morning shower. I do think many communities will see at least one decent downpour over the next three days.

Afternoon highs will be generally in the 87-90 degree range through Friday, which is below average for late July in Alabama. Of course, dewpoints will remain sky high, so I am not sure “cooler” is the right word… Perhaps we should say “not as hot”.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Expect a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with scattered showers and storms around both days, mostly during the 1:00 to 9:00 p.m. time frame. Highs 89-92 for most places.

NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge seems to strengthen a bit, meaning showers and storms should be a little more widely scattered for the first half of the week with highs up in the low 90s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: Still no sign of any tropical mischief across the Atlantic basin through the weekend.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine on the coast through the weekend with a passing storm from time to time from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach; highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be speaking at a senior adult function this morning at Millerville in Clay County… Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Showers/Storms More Numerous Tomorrow

| 3:27 pm July 26, 2016

RADAR CHECK: The most active thunderstorms on radar this afternoon are over the Black Belt region of West Alabama… The storms are moving northwest, and are producing heavy rain and gusty winds…

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Additional showers and storms are possible through the evening hours in the tropical air over Alabama. Temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 90s.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: The upper ridge over Alabama will weaken slightly, and the air aloft will be a little colder, making the air more unstable. Accordingly, we will expect to see an increase in the number of showers and storms each day. Most of them will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower. And, due to the increase in the number of showers and storms, heat levels come down a bit. Many North Alabama communities won’t get out of the 80s; with 90s confined to the southern half of the state.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: An ocean of humidity will continue to cover the Deep South, and we will continue to deal with scattered showers and storms Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds both days. Best chance of storms will come from 1:00 until 10:00 p.m., and highs will be at or just over 90 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: We begin August with some pretty routine mid-summer weather. Hot humid days, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Highs in the low 90s… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: Dry air continues to cover the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend, and you will deal with an occasional passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Rainbow photo below was this morning at Panama City Beach… Photo from Ashlie Halbrook…

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We have a Tuesday night special tonight at 8:30 CT… You can watch it live here

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I had a great time today seeing the kids in the summer program at Lake View Elementary… Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. Tomorrow…

The Heat Is On

| 3:24 pm July 22, 2016

How about this one from Glenn Frey?

“The heat is on, on the street
Inside your head, on every beat
And the beat’s so loud, deep inside
The pressure’s high, just to stay alive
‘Cause the heat is on

Oh-wo-ho, oh-wo-ho
Caught up in the action I’ve been looking out for you
Oh-wo-ho, oh-wo-ho
(Tell me can you feel it)
(Tell me can you feel it)
(Tell me can you feel it)
The heat is on, the heat is on, the heat is on
Oh it’s on the street, the heat is on”

Heat levels are actually down today; clouds this morning have helped. We have mostly low 90s this afternoon, and once again scattered showers and storms are on radar…

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Storms are moving south, and will continue into the nighttime hours. Where storms develop, they will be strong with potential for wet microbursts. SPC maintains a “marginal risk” of severe storms for much of Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: It’s a persistence forecast. Hot, humid weather continues tomorrow and Sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best risk of storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but I can’t totally rule out a late night or morning shower. Highs 90-95 degrees, pretty much what we expect in late July around here.

NEXT WEEK: New week, old forecast. The overall synoptic pattern just won’t change; we will be on the eastern periphery of a heat ridge, so hot, humid summer weather continues with the daily round of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs will be in the low 90s, lows in the 70s. Just impossible to forecast the small scale day to day changes that impact placement and coverage of the summer storms. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: Tropical storm formation is not expected across the Atlantic basin through next week. Lots of dry air.

AT THE BEACH: About 8-10 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through next week with a passing storm from time to time. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids in the summer program at Pinson Elementary today… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Lazy, Hazy Summer Days

| 6:24 am July 22, 2016

How about this one from Nat King Cole?

“Roll out those lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer
Those days of soda and pretzels and beer
Roll out those lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer
Dust off the sun and moon and sing a song of cheer

Just fill your basket full of sandwiches and weenies
Then lock the house up, now you’re set
And on the beach you’ll see the girls in their bikinis
As cute as ever but they never get ’em wet”

NEW DAY, OLD FORECAST: You probably know what we are going to forecast for today and the weekend… after all, this is late July in Alabama. Our weather will continue to be hot and humid, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will bubble up during the heat of the day. We project a high in the mid 90s in most places today, and with the high dewpoints (well up in the 70s) the heat index will exceed 100 in many spots, and a “heat advisory” remains in effect for much of the state.

Where storms form this afternoon, they will be strong; SPC has a “marginal risk” of severe weather up for much of the state.

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Most of the storms will come from 2:00 until 10:00 p.m… and biggest threats will come from lightning, and wet microbursts (local areas of straight line winds high enough to knock down trees and power lines). Chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in three, and there is no way of knowing in advance exactly when and where they form.

NEXT WEEK: No reason for much change. Hot, humid days, a mix of sun and clouds, and “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs generally in the low 90s. There will be day to day variations in the coverage and placement of the storms, but no way of knowing them now, so it is just a broad brush forecast.

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TROPICS: Tropical storm formation is not expected in the Atlantic basin through next week.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and an occasional passing thunderstorm for the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through next week. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with mid 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the upper 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

I have a summer weather program today at Pinson Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms

| 6:14 am July 15, 2016

MUGGY MORNING: Temperatures are close to 70 degrees across the great state of Alabama at sunrise, and the radar is quiet. We will rise to near 90 later today with a mix of sun and clouds, and humidity levels stay high with a blanket of moist air in place.

No doubt we will have a few showers and storms around today, but as I write here often, summer convection remains a great mystery. Forecasting placement, timing, and coverage is a huge challenge, and that remains the case today. High resolution models have backed off on the coverage of afternoon storms, suggesting they will be pretty scattered in nature. However, where they form, they will be strong, and SPC has a “marginal risk” of severe storms defined for about the northern half of the state this afternoon and tonight.

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Like recent days, the main threat will come from wet microbursts (small scale areas of strong straight line winds) and small hail. All summer storms pack tremendous amounts of lightning.

THE WEEKEND: Not much change tomorrow; the general weakness in the summer ridge persists, and we will have mixed sun and clouds with the risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The high will be in the 89-92 degree range for most places. Then, on Sunday, storms should be fewer in number as the ridge begins to grow stronger, and temperatures rise into the mid 90s.]

NEXT WEEK: A strong upper high begins to form northwest of Alabama; we will be on the periphery of the heat wave, but still close enough for rising heat levels here. Temperatures toward the end of the week will rise into the upper 90s, and some spots could very well reach 100. As is usually the case in summer, we will have the risk of scattered storms each afternoon, but they will be pretty widely spaced thanks to warmer air aloft. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: A large amount of dry air covers the tropical Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected anytime soon.

AT THE BEACH: Not much change; pretty standard weather for the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through next week. About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily, with a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a summer program this morning at Fultondale Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Showers/Storms Increasing

| 3:03 pm July 14, 2016

RADAR CHECK: We have an organized band of showers and storms moving across the northern third of the state this afternoon, with thunderstorms more scattered in nature to the south…

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Heavier storms are producing torrential rain, gusty winds, and some small hail. They will diminish tonight, but lingering showers are possible in spots through the night.

TOMORROW: This should be the day with the highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Of course, this is summer, so it won’t rain everywhere, but any one spot stands a 50/50 chance of getting wet a time or two. And, because of the clouds and showers, many places won’t make it out of the 80s.

Some of the storms could be strong over North Alabama, and SPC has a “marginal risk” of severe storms defined tomorrow…

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THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Scattered showers and storms remain possible Saturday and Sunday, but they will become fewer in number. Expect a mix of sun and clouds Saturday with a high near 90, and a good supply of sunshine Sunday with mid 90s by afternoon. No way of knowing exactly when and where the storms will pop up over the weekend; like all summer storms they will be very random and scattered.

NEXT WEEK: A 5970 meter 500 mb heat ridge will build over the nation’s heartland, and although we are on the periphery of that, heat levels will rise next week, and showers and storms will become pretty isolated. Highs will be well up in the 90s, and a few spots over Northwest Alabama could touch 100 later in the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: Same story, dry air covers the tropical Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected for the next five days.

AT THE BEACH: Very routine summer weather continues on the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through early next week. About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily with a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the upper 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Scattered Summer Storms

| 3:33 pm July 12, 2016

RADAR CHECK: Another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms across Alabama. Heavier storms are capable of producing some hail and strong, gusty winds, and they all have very frequent lightning…

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These storms will die down later tonight, once the sun goes down.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: Not much change, although I do think storms will be fewer in number on these days as the upper trough just north of our state dissipates. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with a few afternoon thunderstorms in scattered spots; highs 91-95.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Pretty much the same story, although showers and storms should increase a bit on these three days with a weak surface front approaching from the north. Still, they will be scattered, and days will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs generally in the low 90s.

NEXT WEEK: Global models continue to show potential for some nasty heat developing northwest of Alabama thanks to a strong upper high, but we will be only on the periphery of that, so our weather won’t change much, and we expect more classic summer weather with a mix of sun and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 90s.

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TROPICS: Dry air covers much of the tropical Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected anytime soon.

AT THE BEACH: As is usually the case this time of the year, a passing shower or storm will happen from time to time, but we expect about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily through the weekend from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach. Highs on the immediate coast in the 87-90 degree range, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Sun And Storms

| 3:26 pm July 11, 2016

RADAR CHECK: The most intense summer storms this afternoon are over East and South Alabama; heavy rain has been falling in places like Montgomery, Auburn, Lake Martin, and Roanoke. Other strong storms over Northeast Mississippi are about to move into West Alabama at 3:15 p.m. CT…

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The good news is that most communities are below 90 degrees at 3:00… Montgomery has cooled to 75 with rain falling. Storms will end tonight once the sun goes down and the air becomes more stable.

REST OF THE WEEK: The upper low near Memphis will slowly dissipate, and we will be left with standard summer weather conditions tomorrow through Friday. Hot, humid days, a partly sunny sky, and the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. The chance of any one spot getting wet each afternoon will be in the 25-30 percent range, and highs will be generally in the low 90s. Just what we expect in mid-July.

THE WEEKEND: Best solution is simply a persistence forecast. Features that are responsible for changes in the placement and coverage of scattered showers and storms are small scale, and very hard to define days in advance. So, for Saturday and Sunday, expect partly sunny, hot, humid days with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the peak of the afternoon heating process.

NEXT WEEK: We now have both global models (GFS and ECMWF) on board showing a pretty nasty heat bubble over the center of the nation; Alabama will be on the southeast periphery of this big upper high, so most likely the routine summer weather continues here. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: Dry air covers much of the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected anytime soon.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sun each day from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend, with the usual risk of a passing thunderstorm from time to time. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

More Summer Storms Fire Up Later Today

| 6:23 am July 11, 2016

UNSETTLED SUMMER WEATHER: An upper low is centered just northwest of Alabama, and that feature will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight across the state. Like recent days, the storms could be strong, and the Storm Prediction Center has the northern half of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe weather. The main threats are wet microbursts (small scale areas of damaging straight line wind), and lightning, which can be almost non-stop in the stronger afternoon storms.

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The chance of any one spot getting wet today is about 50/50. I usually have dozens of people ask if their neighborhood or community will see rain. I answer the same thing very time… summer storms are totally random and scattered, and there is no way of knowing in advance where and when they pop up on summer afternoons in Alabama. Like yesterday, some will see heavy rain today, others nothing. And, this morning, no meteorologist, TV station, computer model, or weather knows where it will rain at any specific time or place this afternoon… there simply is no skill.

The high today will be in the 88-92 degree range for most communities.

REST OF THE WEEK: Not much change, but the upper low will slowly open up and dissipate, and showers and storms will thin out a bit later this week. Heat levels rise a bit, with low to mid 90s by Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It’s the standard July forecast; partly sunny, hot, humid, with “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A persistence forecast is best. No chance in the summer pattern. Hot, humid days, a partly sunny sky, and a passing shower or storm each afternoon in scattered spots. Highs 92-95.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS keeps advertising a big upper high building over the region, which could mean heat levels rising, and rain chances lowering. But, the European isn’t as bullish, and keeps us in the same type pattern with scattered afternoon storms. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet thanks to dry air, and tropical storm development is not expected this week.

AT THE BEACH: Very classic summer pattern from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores. About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily with the risk of a passing shower or storm from time to time. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 87 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!