Tag: storms

Dry Air Holds Over Far North Alabama

| August 22, 2016 @ 3:33 pm

RADAR CHECK: Showers and storms are moving eastward across Central Alabama… mostly south of a stalled surface front from near Hamilton to Oneonta to Heflin…

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Those north of the front, up in the Tennessee Valley, are enjoying lower humidity levels and a very pleasant day. But, muggy tropical air will push northward tonight… we all know that shots of dry, continental air don’t last long this time of the year.

The showers and storms over Central Alabama will wind down later this evening once the sun goes down.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: The upper ridge will rebuild across the Deep South, setting up some classic August weather each day. Partly sunny, hot, humid, and the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms”. The storms will be widely scattered, generally speaking, than last week. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s; a few spots could reach the mid 90s late in the week.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: It’s a persistence forecast. No real change… highs 90-95, partly sunny days, with a passing shower or storm possible during the afternoon and evening hours. And, of course, the storms on summer afternoons here are very random and scattered, and there is no way of knowing in advance where and when they pop up.

The same pattern holds into next week as the upper ridge remains in place. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the coast through the weekend (from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores)… widely scattered showers and storms remain possible each day, but nothing widespread. Highs on the immediate coast in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICAL TRIO: As you might expect, we have action in the Atlantic basin.

FIONA: This is a weakening tropical depression hanging on for dear life; it should dissipate over the next day or two over the open water of the Central Atlantic; no threat to land.

90L: This is a well organized tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic; it has a high chance of becoming Tropical Storm Gaston within the next 24 hours. But, it will be gaining latitude, and should recurve over the open water. Like Fiona, this seems to be no threat to land.

99L: This wave has a chance of slow development in coming days; it is currently fighting dry air surrounding the system. Most models bring this to a point east of the Bahamas in five days; it is simply too early to know if this will recurve over the open Atlantic, or be a threat to the U.S. Atlantic coast. Odds are high this will not impact the Gulf of Mexico.

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See the Weather Xtreme video for more details on the tropics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Wet At Times This Weekend; Drier Monday

| August 19, 2016 @ 3:29 pm

RADAR CHECK: Again today we have scattered to numerous showers and storms across the great state of Alabama…. moving eastward producing heavy rain and frequent lightning.

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A flash flood warning is in effect for parts of DeKalb County, including Fort Payne… it will expire at 4:45p CT.

Showers and storms will slowly fade late tonight, but some high school football stadiums could get wet on week one of the season. I would take the rain gear for that reason.

TOMORROW/SUNDAY: Not much change over the weekend… a very moist, unstable airmass will remain parked over Alabama with a number of showers and storms around both days. Best chance of rain will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower. With just a limited amount of sunshine, we project a high in the mid to upper 80s both days.

A surface front will creep into far North Alabama later in the weekend, and places like Florence, Athens, and Huntsville could get into drier air Sunday, but the rest of the state will stay rather unsettled.

NEXT WEEK: Drier, continental air slips into the northern half of the state, and we expect shower-free weather Monday and Tuesday (for North and Central Alabama) with lower humidity and cooler nights. Some of the normally cooler spots could visit the upper 50s early Tuesday for a nice preview of fall. But, moisture returns Wednesday with a risk of scattered showers and storms for the latter half of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine through early next week on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores with a few scattered showers and storms around daily. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

FIONA: The tropical storm in the open Atlantic is fighting dry air, and should weaken to a tropical depression over the weekend. It will turn northward and is no threat to land, if it survives.

INVEST 99: The system southeast of Fiona will take a more low latitude track, and has a chance of becoming Tropical Storm Gaston in coming days. Global models are not in very good agreement; remains to be seen if this will impact the U.S. See the Weather Xtreme video for much more information and all the graphics.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Drier Air Arrives Monday

| August 19, 2016 @ 6:23 am

UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND: A blanket of moist, unstable air will continue to cover Alabama today and tomorrow; the sky will be occasionally cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, most active during the afternoon and evening hours. With high precipitable water values, where storms do form they will drop lots of rain in a short amount of time, much like yesterday.

Temperatures will remain below 90 degrees in most places today and tomorrow because of the limited amount of sun.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL TONIGHT: Unfortunately, summer storms tend to be very random and scattered, and there is no skill in knowing exactly when and where they will pop up in advance. The chance of any one high school stadium seeing rain tonight at kickoff time is about one in three, and in some cases lightning will be an issue. Temperatures will be generally in the low 80s at kickoff, dropping into the 70s during the second half of the games with very high humidity levels.

SUNDAY: A surface front (note, we don’t use the words “cold front” in August) will approach North Alabama; much of the state will continue to stay in a soupy airmass with a few passing showers and storms likely. But, the far northern counties of the state could very well begin to get in dry air; places like Florence, Athens, and Huntsville will see a marked decrease in the number of showers Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: A surge of drier, continental air will drop into North Alabama Monday, and we will leave showers out of the forecast through Tuesday. Humidity values will be a little lower, nights a little cooler. Some of the normally cooler spots could easily reach the upper 50s early Tuesday morning. Moisture begins to return Wednesday, and a few afternoon showers are possible, with some risk of scattered showers and storms into Thursday and Friday as well. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine over the weekend with a few scattered showers and storms from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach; pretty much the same type weather on through much of next week. Highs on the immediate coast will stay in the 87-90 degree range, with low 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

FIONA: The tropical storm in the open Atlantic will gain latitude in coming days, and is expected to weaken to a tropical depression over the weekend due to dry air in the surrounding environment. This will likely recurve and is no threat to land.

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INVEST 99L: The wave to the east of Fiona has a chance of developing in coming days, and is expected to become Tropical Storm Gaston. It will take a more southerly track, and should be approaching the Leeward Islands in about 4-5 days. Global models, however, turn this northward before reaching the Caribbean, and for now it doesn’t look like a great for the Gulf of Mexico. Remains to be seen if this will recurve over the open Atlantic (which the ECMWF suggests) or not… see the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and graphics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I am doing a safety program this morning for the Westervelt Company in Northport… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Unsettled Summer Weather Through The Weekend

| August 18, 2016 @ 3:15 pm

RADAR CHECK: As expected, showers and storms have become more numerous across the great state of Alabama this afternoon. Some spots are getting very heavy amounts of rain and very frequent lightning as they move east/northeast…

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We will maintain the chance of showers and storms tonight as the upper ridge continues to weaken across the Deep South, but the trend will be for fewer showers after 9 p.m.

TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Not much change; a rather unsettled period of weather is likely with moist, unstable air in place and the lack of a strong upper ridge. The sky will be cloudy at times each day, and we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily. They will be move active during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out some late night or morning showers as well. Highs will be generally in the mid to upper 80s, and sunshine will be in limited supply.

Rain distribution will be uneven, but average rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely by Sunday. No organized severe weather is expected, but understand any summer storm in Alabama can produce a wet microburst (a local area of damaging straight line winds), and most of them bring a tremendous amount of lightning.

NEXT WEEK: Models continue to show a nice surge of drier, continental air dropping into Alabama Monday. We will maintain a shower-free forecast Monday through Thursday of next week, which is pretty rare for August in Alabama. Humidity levels will be lower, nights a little cooler. In fact, many of the normally cooler spots have a good chance of reaching the upper 50s early Tuesday morning for a nice touch of fall. A few showers could return late in the week; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend, with the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 87-90 degree range, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Fiona will be gaining latitude across the open Atlantic in coming days, and is expected to stay below hurricane strength. Odds remain high this won’t impact any land mass.

Another tropical wave east of Fiona has potential to become a tropical depression or storm in a few days; it will be at a lower latitude, and will get the name “Gaston”. Something to watch in coming days…

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with the students at West Jasper Elementary School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms

| July 15, 2016 @ 6:14 am

MUGGY MORNING: Temperatures are close to 70 degrees across the great state of Alabama at sunrise, and the radar is quiet. We will rise to near 90 later today with a mix of sun and clouds, and humidity levels stay high with a blanket of moist air in place.

No doubt we will have a few showers and storms around today, but as I write here often, summer convection remains a great mystery. Forecasting placement, timing, and coverage is a huge challenge, and that remains the case today. High resolution models have backed off on the coverage of afternoon storms, suggesting they will be pretty scattered in nature. However, where they form, they will be strong, and SPC has a “marginal risk” of severe storms defined for about the northern half of the state this afternoon and tonight.

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Like recent days, the main threat will come from wet microbursts (small scale areas of strong straight line winds) and small hail. All summer storms pack tremendous amounts of lightning.

THE WEEKEND: Not much change tomorrow; the general weakness in the summer ridge persists, and we will have mixed sun and clouds with the risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The high will be in the 89-92 degree range for most places. Then, on Sunday, storms should be fewer in number as the ridge begins to grow stronger, and temperatures rise into the mid 90s.]

NEXT WEEK: A strong upper high begins to form northwest of Alabama; we will be on the periphery of the heat wave, but still close enough for rising heat levels here. Temperatures toward the end of the week will rise into the upper 90s, and some spots could very well reach 100. As is usually the case in summer, we will have the risk of scattered storms each afternoon, but they will be pretty widely spaced thanks to warmer air aloft. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: A large amount of dry air covers the tropical Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected anytime soon.

AT THE BEACH: Not much change; pretty standard weather for the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through next week. About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily, with a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a summer program this morning at Fultondale Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Showers/Storms Increasing

| July 14, 2016 @ 3:03 pm

RADAR CHECK: We have an organized band of showers and storms moving across the northern third of the state this afternoon, with thunderstorms more scattered in nature to the south…

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Heavier storms are producing torrential rain, gusty winds, and some small hail. They will diminish tonight, but lingering showers are possible in spots through the night.

TOMORROW: This should be the day with the highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Of course, this is summer, so it won’t rain everywhere, but any one spot stands a 50/50 chance of getting wet a time or two. And, because of the clouds and showers, many places won’t make it out of the 80s.

Some of the storms could be strong over North Alabama, and SPC has a “marginal risk” of severe storms defined tomorrow…

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THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Scattered showers and storms remain possible Saturday and Sunday, but they will become fewer in number. Expect a mix of sun and clouds Saturday with a high near 90, and a good supply of sunshine Sunday with mid 90s by afternoon. No way of knowing exactly when and where the storms will pop up over the weekend; like all summer storms they will be very random and scattered.

NEXT WEEK: A 5970 meter 500 mb heat ridge will build over the nation’s heartland, and although we are on the periphery of that, heat levels will rise next week, and showers and storms will become pretty isolated. Highs will be well up in the 90s, and a few spots over Northwest Alabama could touch 100 later in the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: Same story, dry air covers the tropical Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected for the next five days.

AT THE BEACH: Very routine summer weather continues on the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through early next week. About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily with a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the upper 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Scattered Summer Storms

| July 12, 2016 @ 3:33 pm

RADAR CHECK: Another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms across Alabama. Heavier storms are capable of producing some hail and strong, gusty winds, and they all have very frequent lightning…

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These storms will die down later tonight, once the sun goes down.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: Not much change, although I do think storms will be fewer in number on these days as the upper trough just north of our state dissipates. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with a few afternoon thunderstorms in scattered spots; highs 91-95.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Pretty much the same story, although showers and storms should increase a bit on these three days with a weak surface front approaching from the north. Still, they will be scattered, and days will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs generally in the low 90s.

NEXT WEEK: Global models continue to show potential for some nasty heat developing northwest of Alabama thanks to a strong upper high, but we will be only on the periphery of that, so our weather won’t change much, and we expect more classic summer weather with a mix of sun and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 90s.

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TROPICS: Dry air covers much of the tropical Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected anytime soon.

AT THE BEACH: As is usually the case this time of the year, a passing shower or storm will happen from time to time, but we expect about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily through the weekend from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach. Highs on the immediate coast in the 87-90 degree range, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Sun And Storms

| July 11, 2016 @ 3:26 pm

RADAR CHECK: The most intense summer storms this afternoon are over East and South Alabama; heavy rain has been falling in places like Montgomery, Auburn, Lake Martin, and Roanoke. Other strong storms over Northeast Mississippi are about to move into West Alabama at 3:15 p.m. CT…

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The good news is that most communities are below 90 degrees at 3:00… Montgomery has cooled to 75 with rain falling. Storms will end tonight once the sun goes down and the air becomes more stable.

REST OF THE WEEK: The upper low near Memphis will slowly dissipate, and we will be left with standard summer weather conditions tomorrow through Friday. Hot, humid days, a partly sunny sky, and the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. The chance of any one spot getting wet each afternoon will be in the 25-30 percent range, and highs will be generally in the low 90s. Just what we expect in mid-July.

THE WEEKEND: Best solution is simply a persistence forecast. Features that are responsible for changes in the placement and coverage of scattered showers and storms are small scale, and very hard to define days in advance. So, for Saturday and Sunday, expect partly sunny, hot, humid days with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the peak of the afternoon heating process.

NEXT WEEK: We now have both global models (GFS and ECMWF) on board showing a pretty nasty heat bubble over the center of the nation; Alabama will be on the southeast periphery of this big upper high, so most likely the routine summer weather continues here. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: Dry air covers much of the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected anytime soon.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sun each day from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend, with the usual risk of a passing thunderstorm from time to time. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

More Summer Storms Fire Up Later Today

| July 11, 2016 @ 6:23 am

UNSETTLED SUMMER WEATHER: An upper low is centered just northwest of Alabama, and that feature will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight across the state. Like recent days, the storms could be strong, and the Storm Prediction Center has the northern half of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe weather. The main threats are wet microbursts (small scale areas of damaging straight line wind), and lightning, which can be almost non-stop in the stronger afternoon storms.

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The chance of any one spot getting wet today is about 50/50. I usually have dozens of people ask if their neighborhood or community will see rain. I answer the same thing very time… summer storms are totally random and scattered, and there is no way of knowing in advance where and when they pop up on summer afternoons in Alabama. Like yesterday, some will see heavy rain today, others nothing. And, this morning, no meteorologist, TV station, computer model, or weather knows where it will rain at any specific time or place this afternoon… there simply is no skill.

The high today will be in the 88-92 degree range for most communities.

REST OF THE WEEK: Not much change, but the upper low will slowly open up and dissipate, and showers and storms will thin out a bit later this week. Heat levels rise a bit, with low to mid 90s by Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It’s the standard July forecast; partly sunny, hot, humid, with “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A persistence forecast is best. No chance in the summer pattern. Hot, humid days, a partly sunny sky, and a passing shower or storm each afternoon in scattered spots. Highs 92-95.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS keeps advertising a big upper high building over the region, which could mean heat levels rising, and rain chances lowering. But, the European isn’t as bullish, and keeps us in the same type pattern with scattered afternoon storms. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet thanks to dry air, and tropical storm development is not expected this week.

AT THE BEACH: Very classic summer pattern from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores. About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily with the risk of a passing shower or storm from time to time. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 87 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Storms More Numerous Today

| July 5, 2016 @ 6:15 am

RADAR CHECK: We have some pretty healthy showers and thunderstorms on radar early this morning around sunrise over North Alabama…

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These are mostly north of I-20, and moving east. A few communities have received some beneficial rain. But, many other places are bone dry. So it goes with summer storms in Alabama.

With colder air aloft and a more unstable airmass in place, we expect scattered to numerous showers and storms across the northern half of the state today, and most places won’t get out of the 80s for a change due to the clouds and showers. We note PWAT (precipitable water) values are very high (over 2 inches), so where the heavier storms develop, rain will be pretty heavy.

And, we will take all the rain we can get since parts of North Alabama are in a “severe drought”…

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TOMORROW: Showers and storms become more widely spaced; the sky will be partly sunny with a high back in the low to mid 90s. Chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow is about one in four.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These days look relatively dry as the ridge gets stronger and the air aloft warmer. Hot, humid with ample sunshine and highs in the mid 90s. Afternoon storms are possible, but they will be very isolated.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will see a shift toward colder air aloft, meaning a slow increase in the number of scattered storms. It certainly won’t be a “rainy weekend”, but a few passing showers and storms are certainly possible. Seems like the highest coverage of showers and storms will come Sunday, and highs will be in the low 90s in most spots with mixed sun and clouds.

NEXT WEEK: For now the classic summer forecast looks appropriate…. partly sunny, hot humid days with SMAEST, “scattered mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs will be generally in the mid 90s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach through the weekend with only isolated thunderstorms. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!