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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Tag: "storms"

Severe Weather Threat Ahead For Alabama

| 6:38 am October 13, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

As always before any severe weather threat, I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and detailed information on what is ahead.

AT DAYBREAK: Things are pretty quiet early this morning; just a few sprinkles on the radar near the Tennessee border… most of the state is rain-free with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s around here. We don’t expect any weather problems through the morning hours.

SEVERE STORMS AHEAD: A vigorous upper trough west of Alabama, with an attendant surface low and cold front, will bring the threat of severe weather to our state late today and tonight. Here is a look at what we expect across Alabama…

TIMING: Severe storms could develop over the western half of Alabama as early as 4:00-5:00 this afternoon. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail, damaging wind, and maybe even a tornado or two. The primary squall line will enter West Alabama late tonight, around midnight, and will move slowly through the state during the pre-dawn hours. After midnight, the core threat shifts to damaging straight line wind along the squall line. It could very well be after daybreak tomorrow before the storms impact places like Anniston and Gadsden in East Alabama.

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THREATS: The highest tornado probabilities are west of Alabama, around Memphis and the Mississippi Delta this afternoon and early tonight, but clearly there will be a risk of a few tornadoes over West Alabama between 5:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. All of Alabama will have a risk of damaging straight line winds, with individual thunderstorms, and with the organized line that will move through after midnight. And, some hail is also possible in stronger storms.

FLASH FLOODING: A flash flood watch is in effect for that part of Alabama north of a line from Millport to Jasper to Oneonta to Fort Payne. Keep in mind this part of the state, received significant rain over the weekend; we have reports of almost five inches of rain around Cullman. Additional rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches will create the risk of flooding tonight.

GET THE WARNINGS! Remember, if you think you will hear an outdoor warning siren late tonight while you family is sleeping, you pretty much have no hope of getting a warning. Every home needs a properly programmed NOAA Weather Radio, and a good “second layer” is a smart phone app like MyWarn, or WeatherRadio. Be sure you and your family can hear severe weather warnings late this afternoon and tonight.

ABC 33/40 COVERAGE: If any part of our TV market is under a tornado warning, you know the deal… we go on the air, and stay on the air. When we have no active tornado warnings, tonight we will be on our live stream, and our digital weather channel “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state. You can access the live stream through any ABC 33/40 app, including the James Spann 24/7 app, or on the ABC 33/40 web site.

REST OF THE WEEK: Rain moves out of the state tomorrow, and the weather turns much cooler with a gusty north breeze. A cut-off upper low will persist north of the state Wednesday, and could keep clouds over the northern third of the state, and maybe even a touch of light rain or drizzle around the Tennessee Valley. A good chance we won’t get out of the 60s Wednesday.

Then, the weather will be delightful Thursday and Friday with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights; highs in the 70s and lows down around 50 degrees. Colder pockets will visit the 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Could not be better. Clear weather continues; highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s. Perfect for race weekend at Talladega, football, or anything else you want to do outdoors.

TROPICS: We have a pair of tropical storms in the Atlantic; Fay is east of Bermuda, and is moving east over the open Atlantic. And, Gonzalo is near the Leeward Islands; it will be near the eastern tip of Puerto Rico after midnight tonight as a strong tropical storm, and should become a hurricane tomorrow as moves over the open Atlantic. These will not impact the U.S. mainland.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We have moved this week’s show to tomorrow night at 8:30p CT due to the severe weather threat tonight.

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I will be doing a weather program today at Oliver Elementary School in Birmingham… we will have frequent updates on the severe weather threat here on the blog through the day, and of course as the event unfolds tonight and tomorrow morning. I will post another detailed discussion by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Scattered Storms Through Tomorrow

| 3:47 pm October 6, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: One strong storm earlier today developed over Calhoun County, producing small hail north of Anniston at places like Weaver; that storm is well into Georgia, and moving away. However, new storms have fired up over Northwest Alabama, and hail has also been reported in Marion County.

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The storms are moving east/northeast, and due to very cold air aloft (500 mb temperatures down to -15C), hail is very possible in the stronger storms for the next several hours. SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for North Alabama due to this potential. Storms should weaken later tonight as the air becomes more stable.

TOMORROW: Another wave will rotate down the back side of the big upper trough over the eastern U.S., and we will need to keep the risk of scattered storms in the forecast. The high resolution NAM suggests the highest coverage of storms will actually come during the morning hours, but they are possible basically at any time during the day; the high will be in the 77-80 degree range with the sky occasionally cloudy.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: These three days will be warm with highs up in the low to mid 80s. We can’t rule out a shower or storm on any day, but they will be widely spaced, and mainly over the northern third of the state. An approaching cold front will push an organized band of showers and storms into North Alabama Friday night, but that front will stall out somewhere around the Alabama/Tennessee border.

THE WEEKEND: The stalled front will be just north of here, meaning some risk of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with the best coverage along and north of I-20. This won’t be a continuous rain, and not a “wash out”, but if you have outdoor plans just be aware some rain is very possible at times. Our highs will be in the 77 to 81 degree range. South Alabama looks mostly warm and dry for the weekend.

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week. We do note there has been some consistency in the idea of a tropical system forming near the Yucatan coast in about 6-8 days, with a northward motion into the Gulf of Mexico. Way too early to know if this happens at all; see the video for more details.

NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: The weather could not be better for the big event at Gulf Shores; look for sunny warm days, and fair pleasant nights Thursday through Sunday with only a small risk of a shower Sunday afternoon. Highs in the 80s; lows in the 60s. Sea water temperatures are in the 78-81 degree range.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting the 1st graders at Vestavia Hills Elementary Liberty Park… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Moist Air Returns To Alabama Today

| 6:29 am October 6, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

AT DAYBREAK: Still pretty chilly over Northeast Alabama this morning with low to mid 40s reported from Gadsden up to Fort Payne. We note over the weekend our Skywatcher at Black Creek, Vic Bell, dropped to freezing early yesterday (his low was 32), his earliest freeze on record. There was scattered frost across the colder valleys yesterday morning. Nothing on radar over Alabama as the new day dawns.

THE DAY AHEAD: We are watching a line of showers and strong storms just northwest of Alabama…

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These showers will slowly weaken, but some of them will move into the northwest corner of Alabama this morning. These showers and storms are ahead of a spoke of energy rotating down the back side of the long wave upper trough over the eastern half of the U.S. And, that wave will bring the chance of showers and storms to North Alabama later today and tonight.

STRONG STORMS? SPC has North Alabama, areas generally north of I-59, under the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for this afternoon and tonight; this risk extends west and north to Texas and Kentucky. Shear and instability values are somewhat marginal for severe weather in our state, but very cold air aloft, associated with the upper trough, seems to be the biggest flag, meaning the greatest threat will come from large hail, especially north of I-20 and west of I-65.

The main window for stronger storms will come from about 2:00 until 9:00 p.m. We will watch radar trends closely.

TOMORROW: Another wave embedded in the large upper trough will pass north of the state, and we will mention scattered showers and storms tomorrow, mainly north of I-20. The sun might peek out at times tomorrow, and the high should be in the 77-81 degree range. No “all day” rain.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Wednesday and Thursday look relatively dry and warm. A few showers could fire up Thursday afternoon over North Alabama as isentropic lift increases over the state, but widespread rain doesn’t look especially likely for now. Afternoon temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s on these days. Then, on Friday, a cold front will approach from the north. The GFS suggests a band of showers and storms could move into our state late Friday afternoon and Friday night. This could mean some rain issues for high school football games across North Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The front sags down into North Alabama, and becomes stationary as it will be parallel to the upper air flow. This means we will have the chance of a few passing showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. The rain won’t be continuous, but you will need to be ready for occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm if you have something planned outdoors. High temperatures over the weekend will be in the 75-79 degree range, about average for mid-October in Alabama. Probably not much sun.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week. The hurricane season runs through the end of November, but generally after October hurricanes are not very common as the ocean water temperatures cool.

GULF COAST WEATHER: The National Shrimp Festival is this Thursday through Sunday on the Alabama Gulf Coast… one of the biggest events of the year. The weather looks great, with mostly sunny days and fair nights; only a small risk of a shower Sunday. Highs will be in the 80s, and lows in the 60s. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning has cooled to 72 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program today at Liberty Park Elementary School in Vestavia Hills… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Cold Front Getting Closer

| 3:23 pm October 2, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Showers and a few strong storms have fired up over parts of West-Central Alabama this afternoon… they are moving northeast and some of the heavier storms are producing lots of lightning and gusty winds. The chance of scattered showers and storms will continue through tonight over all of Alabama.

TO THE WEST: Severe thunderstorm watches cover the region from Central Texas to southern Illinois ahead of a deep upper trough moving out into the Great Plains, and the attendant surface cold front. These storms will move into out state after midnight tonight, and SPC has pulled the “slight risk” of severe weather down into North and West Alabama, for areas generally along and north of I-59…

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This is a somewhat marginal risk, but a few storms between midnight and 6:00 a.m. could produce strong gusty winds and hail. And, as we always caution, when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected.

The storms will end from northwest to southeast during the midday hours tomorrow as the front pushes deeper into Alabama. I figure most places will see around 1/2 inch of rain, but a few spots could see over one inch where the heavier storms develop.

The sky becomes clear tomorrow night with gusty north winds and falling temperatures; we wind up in the 40-45 degree range early Saturday morning as the weekend begins as the coolest air so far this season moves into our state.

COOL WEEKEND: Saturday will feature a brilliantly sunny sky, but the day will be cool and breezy with north winds of 12-22 mph. The coldest morning will come early Sunday, with lows of 38 to 42 degrees should be common. Then, Sunday will be a sunny day with a high in the low to mid 70s.

The last time Birmingham had a low in the 30s was back on April 16, when the low was 32 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: The week looks generally dry and pleasant, but we will introduce the risk of a few showers on Tuesday as a lobe of energy comes down the back side of the upper trough over the eastern U.S. Rain should be pretty light. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Scattered showers are possible for high school football games across North/Central Alabama tonight with temperatures in the 70s. Showers and storms tomorrow should end by kickoff time for most stadiums across North and Central Alabama, the evening will be breezy and much cooler with temperatures falling through the 60s, reaching the 50s by the fourth quarter at many stadiums. You will need a light jacket or sweater.

Saturday, Alabama travels to Ole Miss for a game that kicks off at 2:30 in Oxford. The weather could not be better. Total sunshine, about 68 degrees at kickoff with low humidity and a pleasant north breeze. Temperatures will fall to near 60 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts LSU Saturday evening (6:00p kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Again, a perfect night for football. A clear sky; 60 degrees at kickoff, with low 50s by the second half. Zero chance of rain. A jacket will be in order.

UAB plays at Western Kentucky Saturday evening (6:00p kickoff)… it will be a clear, cool night in Bowling Green with 55 degrees at kickoff, then about 45 degrees by the fourth quarter.

GULF COAST WEATHER: A few showers and storms are likely tomorrow from Panama City over to Gulf Shores. Then, a glorious weekend with sunny days and fair nights; highs will be in the 70s Saturday and Sunday with a cloudless sky.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing the 5th graders today at Good Hope Elementary School in Cullman County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Loud Pre-Dawn Storms

| 4:57 am August 19, 2014

A cluster of strong storms has formed over Central Alabama early this morning…

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Storms are producing lots of lighting and loud thunder and heavy rain, but they are not severe. These storms are moving east.

Look for a fresh discussion and new Weather Xtreme video shortly…

Active Summer Weather

| 3:31 pm June 24, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Showers and storms have been moving northeast through Alabama today…

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The storms produced tree and power line damage in parts of Walker and Blount Counties, where winds gusted to 40/50 mph in spots.

We will maintain a chance of showers and storms tonight as an upper trough passes through the state.

REST OF THE WEEK: Showers and storms should be fewer in number tomorrow as the upper trough moves on to the east; looks like storms tomorrow afternoon will be widely spaced, and mostly south of I-20.

Another weak impulse could bring a little higher coverage of scattered showers and storms Thursday, thinning out again Friday. Highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range tomorrow through Friday with a mix of sun and clouds each day.

OUR WEEKEND: We will maintain the classic summer forecast… partly sunny days, and the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon highs around 90… chance of any one spot getting wet will be about one in three. And, pretty much the same story into early next week.

No sign of any serious heat building across the Deep South through mid-July, which is very good news.

AT THE BEACH: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend, with the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs in the upper 80s from Panama City to Gulf Shores (along the immediate coast), with low 90s possible inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids in the Summer Enrichment Workshop for gifted and talented students (K-8th grade) in the Tuscaloosa area… it was hosted at Matthews Elementary School in Northport. Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News!

The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Occasional Showers/Storms Today

| 6:02 am June 24, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WET AT TIMES: A fairly unsettled weather pattern will continue across Alabama today as showers and thunderstorms are likely thanks to an upper trough approaching from the west. Showers are in progress at daybreak in scattered pockets, and they will become more numerous throughout the day.

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Stronger upper winds today will mean the storms will be moving a little faster, which should prevent flooding issues. But, the heavier storms will produce lots of lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain, and some small hail. We won’t get past the mid 80s today due the clouds and showers.

REST OF THE WEEK: The upper trough should be east of the state tomorrow, so showers should become more scattered in nature, and mostly during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow through Friday. Expect a mix of sun and clouds each day with a high between 87 and 90 degrees.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Don’t see any reason to depart from the standard summer forecast… partly sunny days with the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” Saturday and Sunday. Look for a high around 90 degrees both days.

And, very similar weather can be expected into early next week. There is no skill in trying to identify the small scale features than can impact placement and coverage of scattered showers and storms several days in advance.. .so the persistence forecast is usually the best route. After all, this is summertime in Alabama.

AT THE BEACH: About 4-6 hours of sun today with a passing shower or thunderstorm… then expect increasing amounts of sun from Panama City to Gulf Shores with fewer showers tomorrow through the weekend. Highs will be in the upper 80s along the coast, with low 90s inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees.

TROPICS: All is quiet this morning across the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program this morning for kids in a summer program at Matthews Elementary School in Northport… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Wet At Times Today; A Drier Weekend

| 6:08 am June 13, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FRIDAY THE 13TH: A batch of showers and strong storms is moving through Central Alabama at daybreak…

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This mass of rain will move southeast over the next few hours with some thunder and lightning, but the storms involved will be below severe limits.

REST OF THE DAY: The high resolution HRRR model hints the most organized this morning will be along and south of I-20, with showers to the north being more scattered in nature. Still, all of Alabama will have a chance of showers and storms today with a mostly cloudy sky and a high in the mid 80s. Showers will fade away early tonight as drier air begins to push into the state.

DRIER WEEKEND: The Alabama weekend continues to look mostly rain-free. A few isolated showers could show up somewhere during the afternoon hours, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is only about one in ten both days. Afternoon highs rise into the upper 80s with a good supply of sunshine both days.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like a pretty routine summer weather pattern. Partly sunny days, with the chance of a few spots seeing an afternoon shower of thunderstorm. Probability of any one spot getting wet each afternoon will run in the 20-30 percent range, with potential for higher shower coverage late in the week. Highs will be pretty close to 90 degrees. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through early next week.

AT THE BEACH: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through early next week from Panama City to Gulf Shores with a few scattered showers and storms. Highs on the coast in the 80s, with sea water temperatures mostly in the low 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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I will be live from Riverfest in Gadsden this evening on ABC 33/40 News at 4, 5, and 6:00… so no afternoon video today, but I will post some forecast notes this afternoon. Enjoy the day!