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Tag: "storms"

More Storms Ahead

| 12:52 pm April 19, 2015

Here is a projection of what the radar will look like over the next 15 hours, via the high resolution HRRR model…

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As Bill notes in the post below, we have two additional windows for severe storms in our state… one from about 1:00 until 7:00 p.m…. and another one from around 12:00 midnight tonight through 6:00 a.m. tomorrow.

New showers are forming now over West Alabama…

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These will grow stronger in coming hours as they move east… some storms this afternoon could produce hail and strong, gusty winds, but the tornado threat looks very low (although not zero).

The line of storms arriving ahead of a cold front after midnight tonight will also be capable of producing hail and gusty straight line winds. And once again, the overall tornado threat late tonight is low.

One thing to remember, with the ground saturated, some trees will come down, even with gusts under 50 mph.

NWS survey teams will look at damage in Russell County (around Fort Mitchell) this afternoon; they will review the damage in Cherokee and Calhoun Counties tomorrow (this was damage at Leesburg and Pleasant Valley).

Stay tuned for updates…

Severe Storms Possible Later Tonight/Tonight

| 6:19 am April 19, 2015

Brian will be along shortly with a new Weather Xtreme video… this is a look at what to expect over the next 24 hours.

RIGHT NOW: Rain and storms continue over much of North/Central Alabama this morning with heavy rain in spots. Organized severe weather is not expected over the northern half of the state, and this activity will slowly diminish later this morning. We should note severe storms are possible over South Alabama this morning; in fact SPC has issued a tornado watch much of Southeast Alabama until 3:00 this afternoon.

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LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT: SPC has all of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather…

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Seems like we have two potential windows for severe storms.

One will come this afternoon when a disturbance (MCV) approaches from the west, and instability reaches a peak (ML CAPE values over 1,500 j/kg). Bulk shear values are not too impressive, and the tornado threat seems low. But, stronger storms during the afternoon could produce hail, and strong straight line winds where bowing segments develop.

Then, late tonight, more storms are likely ahead of the surface cold front. Most of this will come from about midnight tonight through 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. While there will be an increase in the low level jet (winds about 5,000 feet off the ground), the air will be pretty worked over across Alabama from previous storms, and the core dynamic support will lift northeast, away from us. A good chance the storms will weaken as they move through, but there still is some risk of a few storms with hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat late tonight is not zero, but very low.

And, don’t forget… when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected, so we will keep a very close eye on thunderstorm/radar trends today and tonight. Stay tuned for updates.

Wet/Stormy Late Tonight

| 8:20 pm April 18, 2015

Rain continues to increase over West and Southwest Alabama tonight… this big rain mass is moving northeast.

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Animation of the high resolution HRRR model shows a very wet overnight period for our state…

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The main threat overnight will be heavy rain and localized flooding issues… just a marginal severe weather threat. A few storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.

We will have a break in the rain from mid-morning tomorrow through the evening hours, but another band of showers and storms will move in tomorrow night and early Monday, and those could be strong to severe. More later… stay tuned…

Weekend Weather Update

| 8:20 am April 18, 2015

This is a busy weekend for many with spring sports in full swing, and the two “A-Day” football games ahead at Tuscaloosa and Auburn.

The good news is that there is no rain on radar as of 8:00 this morning, and most of the morning should be rain-free. No doubt a few showers will begin to form this afternoon, but the good news is that it looks like the most widespread rain will hold off until tonight. This is model output from the high resolution HRRR model, valid at 3pm today…

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So yes, take the rain gear to Bryant-Denny Stadium and Jordan-Hare Stadium, but there is a real chance both games will be played with few showers. Temperatures will be in the 70s this afternoon.

TOMORROW: Much of Alabama is in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather tomorrow…

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There will be two main windows for strong storms… the first window will come from around 2 a.m. until 8 a.m. tomorrow; this will be more of a heavy rain event with limited instability, but a storm with hail and strong gusty winds can’t be ruled out. And, while the tornado threat is low, it is not zero.

There should be a lull in the action Sunday afternoon… then the second chance comes tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Monday… from about 10:00 p.m. tomorrow until 4:00 a.m. Monday. This is when the core dynamic support from the ejecting upper trough comes into play. While it will be slowly weakening, the air will be more unstable, and projected shear profiles and lapse rates hint that some of the storms could produce strong, perhaps damaging winds, and an isolated tornado will be possible.

Stay tuned to the blog for updates…

Wet At Times Today; Drier Tomorrow

| 6:09 am April 10, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: As expected, showers and storms have remained well under severe limits across North Alabama during the pre-dawn hours as the main upper support lifted away to the northeast.

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A cold front will push slowly through the state today; showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning statewide, but by this afternoon the most numerous storms will push down into the southern half of Alabama. The guys at SPC maintain the standard “slight” risk of severe weather for South Alabama this afternoon and early tonight…

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Some of the storms across South Alabama could produce hail and gusty winds this afternoon, but with little low level bulk shear and weak wind fields, there is very little risk of a tornado.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Tomorrow promises to be a beautiful day for the northern half of the state with ample sunshine and a high in the mid 70s. Humidity values will be lower, and we start the day close to 50 degrees. The weather stays dry Sunday for North/Central Alabama, but clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon hours, and a shower could move up in here from the south Sunday night as moisture returns. Sunday’s high will be in the 76-79 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: Showers and storms are likely Monday as a short wave passes through; showers will be fewer in number Tuesday, but rain is still possible at times. Unsettled weather continues for the rest of the week with some risk of showers and storms daily; the 00Z GFS hints that we could see a setup for strong to severe storms late in the week with a surface low setting up over Arkansas with good upper support. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: For the weekend, we project about 2 to 4 hours of sunshine for the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms both days. Then, early next week, about 3 to 5 hours of sun daily, and we will maintain the risk of a few passing showers and storms daily Monday through Wednesday. Highs will be in the 70s, and sea water temperatures are very close to 70 degrees.

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I have a weather program this morning at St. Paul’s Lutheran School in Cullman… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Storms Remain Below Severe Limits

| 5:01 am April 10, 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move through North Alabama this morning… some with heavy rain and lots of lightning, but they remain well below severe limits.

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Storms will continue to move southeast during the next few hours. Later today, a few severe storms are possible over the southern half of the state, where hail and gusty winds will be the primary threat. A full forecast discussion and new Weather Xtreme video coming soon…

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