Sally Nearly Stationary; Heavy Rain The Main Concern

STILL QUIET TODAY: Alabama’s weather will remain quiet for the northern 2/3 of the state today, but the sky will be mostly cloudy as the canopy of high cirrus clouds from Hurricane Sally will spread northward. Any showers this afternoon should be widely scattered; most of the rain will remain near the Gulf Coast today.

Sally will creep inland early tomorrow, and the system will weaken and turn northeast, moving through Central Alabama. This is what we expect, in terms of the inland impact…

RAIN: A flash flood watch is in effect for areas along and south of I-20 for tomorrow (along and south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston). Rain amounts of 5-10 inches are likely over Southeast Alabama (from Montgomery south and east), with totals closer to 2-4 inches up to I-20. There will be a sharp cut-off in terms of rain amounts on the northern fringe of Sally, and exactly where that happens remains somewhat uncertain. Rain amounts will be very light for the northern third of the state.

WIND: Winds tomorrow will be in the 15-30 mph range. We do not expect any major tree or power line damage, and no widespread power outages (of course, along the Gulf Coast is a different story where winds will be much higher)

TORNADOES: A few brief, isolated tornadoes are possible over the southern half of the state tomorrow generally south of a line from Mobile to Montgomery to Opelika. The higher probability is over the southeast part of the state.

The rain will end from west to east during the day Thursday as Sally moves out of the state.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather will be delightful with sunny pleasant days and fair cool nights. Highs between 76 and 80, lows between 57 and 62. It will feel like fall.

NEXT WEEK: The weather will stay mostly dry next week with very comfortable temperatures. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

SALLY’S COASTAL IMPACT: Hurricane Sally now has sustained winds of 85 mph, and is located about 115 miles south of Biloxi. It is practically stationary; drifting to the west/northwest at only 2 mph.

The hurricane is now expected to remain in a moderate to high mid-to upper-level wind shear environment. In addition, some modest upwelling is likely occurring in the inner-core region based a SST (sea surface temperature) decrease of nearly 2 deg F during the past 24 hours based on data from buoys. This caused the weakening trend overnight. Accordingly, Sally is expected to make landfall as a category one hurricane early tomorrow near the Alabama/Mississippi border.

Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast. Some spots could see 20 inches of rain over southern Mobile and Baldwin counties, and the western part of the Florida Panhandle.

REST OF THE TROPICS: Hurricane Paulette is headed into the North Atlantic; no threat to land. Teddy is expected to become a major hurricane in coming days; our friends in Bermuda will need to watch this one, but it will recurve into the Atlantic well east of the U.S. And, Tropical Storm Vicky in the eastern Atlantic is expected to be short lived.

A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa with a medium chance of becoming a depression or storm within the next five days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1945: A hurricane entered the south Florida coast at Homestead, curving northward right up through the center of Florida, remaining over land, and exited near Jacksonville Beach with winds gusting to 170 mph. The following is from the Homestead Air Reserve Base. “On Sept. 15, 1945, three years to the day after the founding of the Homestead Army Air Field, a massive hurricane roared ashore, sending winds of up to 145 miles per hour tearing through the Air Field’s buildings. Enlisted housing facilities, the nurses’ dormitory, and the Base Exchange were all destroyed. The roof was ripped from what would later become building 741, the Big Hangar. The base laundry and fire station were both declared total losses. The few remaining aircraft were tossed about like leaves.”

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos