Routine August Weather Continues; Eyes On PTC 6

RADAR CHECK: We have the usual array of small, random, scattered showers and thunderstorms across Alabama this afternoon. The showers are short lived, and moving slowly to the east. Away from them, the sky is partly sunny with temperatures mostly in the low 90s. Scattered showers will end tonight after sunset.

REST OF THE WEEK: A broad upper ridge will stay in place across the Deep South, and the weather won’t change much through Friday. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with highs in the low 90s and “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. The chance of any one spot getting wet daily will be in the 35-45 percent range.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change; look for a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with scattered showers and storms, mostly between 12 Noon and 10:00 p.m. Highs will be in the 88-91 degree range both days, at or slightly below average for mid-August in Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: The weather early in the week will be determined by the track of the tropical system, which is expected to move into Florida from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For the moment, it looks like Alabama could be on the drier, west side of the circulation, but that is very uncertain. The rest of the week will continue to feature pretty routine summer weather with a mix of sun and scattered storms… highs will be in the 86-90 degree range. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

PTC 6: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six in the Caribbean is forecast to become Tropical Storm Fred during the next 12 hours. The system will move over Hispaniola tomorrow, and then across the northern coast of Cuba Thursday and Friday. The latest NHC forecast has Fred in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, west of Tampa Bay, Sunday morning.

Model guidance suggests the system could move into the eastern Florida Panhandle Monday.

Some important points…

*Intensification in the short term will be limited by land interaction, dry air, and shear.

*There is a chance the system could dissipate over the mountainous island of Hispaniola.

*If the system survives and enters the Gulf of Mexico, there is some chance it could become a hurricane by Sunday or Monday; there is abundant latent heat energy available in the Gulf.

*There is no way of knowing at this point the ultimate final destination and intensity. Remember, with NHC forecasts the average track errors at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles and 200 miles, respectively.

*If you have a beach trip planned next week, there is no need to cancel or change plans at this point. Just keep an eye on it.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a disturbance in the eastern Atlantic has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next five days as it moves to the west/northwest.

ON THIS DATE IN 1856: A hurricane destroyed Isle Dernieres or Last Island, a pleasure resort south-southwest of New Orleans on this day. The highest points of the island were under five feet of water. The resort hotel was destroyed, along with the island’s gambling establishments. Over 200 people perished, and the island lost all its vegetation and split in half. Only one cow remained on the island after the catastrophe. The Last Island is now just a haven for pelicans and other seabirds.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

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Tags: ANC, featured, scattered storms

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos