Scattered Storms Stay In The Forecast; Fred Is Struggling

| August 12, 2021 @ 3:17 pm

RADAR CHECK: Showers and storms are most numerous over Northwest, Southwest, and East-Central Alabama this afternoon. Some spots are getting heavy rain, gusty winds, and lots of lightning. Away from the storms, the sky is partly sunny with temperatures mostly in the 88-92 degree range. Showers and storms will fade away late tonight after sunset.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: We aren’t expecting much change; look for a mix of sun and clouds each day with scattered showers and thunderstorms, most active from about 12:00 noon to 10:00 p.m. Odds of any one spot getting wet each day is 40-50 percent, and highs will be in the low 90s tomorrow, and in the 87-90 degree range over the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: Rain coverage will likely increase over the first half of the week as deeper tropical moisture moves in from the south; the heaviest rain from the tropical system will likely be east of Alabama, however. Highs next week will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s, below average for mid-August in Alabama. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FRED REMAINS DISORGANIZED: Tropical Depression Fred remains very disorganized this afternoon near the eastern tip of Cuba. The system will move along the northern coast of Cuba tonight and tomorrow, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. The latest NHC track has Fred moving into the eastern part of the Florida panhandle late Sunday night or early Monday as a tropical storm.

Some notes on Fred this afternoon…

*Some models suggest Fred won’t regain tropical storm status due to land interaction, shear, and drier air being pulled into the system. Some to bring it back to tropical storm strength, in line with the NHC forecast. Most likely, the main impact with Fred will come from heavy rain and rip currents.

*The main impact, in terms of storm surge, rain, and wind, will be along and east of the circulation center (if it can regain tropical storm strength). The Alabama Gulf Coast, and the western tip of the Florida panhandle (Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Navarre Beach) will be on the better, drier, west side of the system. But the rip current danger will be high all along the Gulf Coast by Sunday and early next week. And, there will be some rain on the west side of the tropical system as well.

*The heaviest rain directly associated with Fred, once inland, will likely be east of Alabama, across the Florida peninsula, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

*I can’t give specific advice for those planning a beach trip this weekend and early next week since different people go to the beach for different reasons. Odds of this turning into a hurricane, for now, look very low.

*Remember, all of this could change. When it comes to tropical systems, if you are working with old information, you are working with bad information.

INVEST 95L: Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that a small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. However, the low does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday.

NHC is showing a 70 percent chance of this becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next five days. This one will be called “Grace”.

Way too early to know if Grace will move into the Gulf of Mexico, or impact the U.S.

ON THIS DATE IN 2005: A tornado strikes Wright, Wyoming, a coal-mining community, killing two and destroying 91 homes and damaging about 30 more in around the town.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute show anytime on your favorite podcast app. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…


Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: , ,

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

Comments are closed.