Showers/Storms Build Northward Tomorrow
RADAR CHECK: Again today most of the showers and thunderstorms are over the southern half of Alabama, mainly south of a line from Lafayette to Montgomery to Mobile. Stronger storms there are producing heavy rain and lots of lightning, but the northern counties of the state remain in a drier airmass. Temperatures are mostly in the 87-92 degree range at mid-afternoon.
A surface front will approach from the north tonight, and a few storms could drop into the Tennessee Valley after sunset; SPC has a low end “marginal risk” (level 1/5) defined for the far northern part of the state for tonight for potential for strong gusty winds with heavier storms that form ahead of the front.
REST OF THE WEEK: Moisture will move northward tomorrow, and with the surface front drifting southward over the Tennessee Valley we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Much of North and Central Alabama is in a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) due to the potential of strong gusty winds.
The coverage of scattered showers and storms will remain fairly high Thursday as the front continues to drop slowly southward. Then, on Friday, drier air will likely move into North/Central Alabama, with most of the showers forming close to the Gulf Coast. The high tomorrow and Thursday will be in the upper 80s, followed by low 90s Friday.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: For now it looks like a very routine summer weekend for Alabama. Partly sunny, humid days with random showers and storms around in scattered spots during the afternoon and evening hours, mostly between 2:00 and 10:00 p.m. Expect highs in the 88-91 degree range, and odds of any one spot getting wet both days are 30-40 percent.
NEXT WEEK: We will roll with a persistence forecast. The core of the heat ridge will remain west of Alabama; highs around here will be mostly in the low 90s through the week, right at seasonal averages. Each day will mention “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” with a partly sunny sky… See the daily Weather Briefing video for maps, graphics, and more details.
TROPICS: A couple of weak low pressure systems embedded along a surface trough are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico, with some of that activity now spreading inland over the Florida Panhandle. The surface trough is expected to meander near the northern Gulf coast through the end of the week, but gradual development will only be possible if it remains over water during that time. Regardless of development, heavy rains will pose a risk of flash flooding along portions of the northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days.
NHC has dropped the chance of development over the next five days to 20 percent. If you are headed to the Central Gulf Coast over the next few days, understand the sun will be out at times, and days won’t be a total “washout”. But, shower and thunderstorm coverage will be higher than usual through the end of the week.
The rest of the Atlantic basin remains very quiet.
ON THIS DATE IN 1995: An intense heat wave affected much of the Midwest for a 4-day period beginning on this day. The worst effects of the heat were noted in the Chicago metropolitan area, where 583 people died from the heat. Temperatures across the region reached as high as 104 degrees.
BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
Look for the next Weather Briefing video here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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