Tag: warmer

A Few Showers; Warming Trend Continues

| January 10, 2017 @ 3:34 pm

CLOUDS INCREASING: Expect a mostly cloudy sky across North/Central Alabama through tomorrow, and we will mention the chance of a few showers, but the most widespread rain will be to the north, closer to the Tennessee border near a surface front that is stalling out. Temperatures will hold in the 50s tonight, and we will rise into the upper 60s tomorrow afternoon as the warming trend continues.

A good chance we touch 70 degrees Thursday afternoon, and as an upper ridge begins to build the chance of a shower will be pretty small, although clouds will linger much of the state.

MILD WEEKEND: Friday through Sunday we project highs in the 70-74 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds each day. The upper ridge will keep the rain west and north of the state over the weekend; it will be a very nice preview of spring.

NEXT WEEK: The ridge weakens a bit, allowing a storm system to bring rain back to the state on Tuesday; the latest GFS is a little weaker with the system, suggesting rain amounts under 1/2 inch and no risk of severe storms. Relatively mild weather will continue through the rest of the week; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

35 YEARS AGO: On January 10, 1982, the low in Birmingham was 2 degrees… it would drop to 1 below zero the following day. Then, in coming days, Birmingham would experience one of its worst ice storms of the twentieth century as freezing rain and sleet swept into Central Alabama about midday on January 12, 1982. Morning forecasts had called for a winter storm watch for occasional sleet and freezing rain that would arrive by sundown. By mid-morning, as freezing rain and sleet across South Alabama was spreading rapidly north, the watch was changed to a winter storm warning.

The snow arrived about 8 hours earlier than anticipated in the Birmingham area and quickly changed over to a mix of freezing rain and sleet that turned roads in skating rinks. Thousands of motorists had to abandon their vehicles on roads and hike home or spend the night in shelters. Brookwood Village mall became a huge shelter. So many wrecks occurred that the Birmingham Police Department could not answer the calls for accident investigation. As temperatures hovered near the freezing mark through the night, freezing rain created a thick coating on all exposed objects. Trees snapped, pulling down power lines and putting as many as 750,000 Alabamians in the dark. A state of emergency was declared in Alabama and National Guard Armories were opened to serve as shelters.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it here.

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I enjoyed seeing all at the Tuscaloosa Rotary Club today… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

A Few Showers Tonight/Tomorrow

| January 10, 2017 @ 6:15 am

WARMER DAYS AHEAD: Alabama continues to dig out of the deep freeze; most communities are well above freezing this morning with temperatures in the 40s and a good south breeze. Clouds will increase today, south winds will average 10-20 mph, gusting higher at times, and the high will be close to 60 degrees this afternoon as the warming trend continues.

We will mention a chance of showers across the northern third of Alabama tonight and tomorrow as a cold front approaches, but the main dynamic support will be lifting well to the north, and rain amounts should be fairly light. The warm-up continues; expect a high in the upper 60s tomorrow.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The front will hang up north of Alabama and stall out, and as an upper ridge builds across the Southeast U.S. the weather looks spring-like on these four days. Highs rising into the low 70s each afternoon with very little chance of rain. Days will feature a mix of sun and clouds; nights mostly fair.

NEXT WEEK: The ridge breaks down, and we will forecast rain to return to Alabama Monday night and Tuesday; for now severe storms are not expected, and rain amounts should be in the 1/2 to 1″ range. No sign of any true Arctic air returning to Alabama for the next 10 days.

LONG RANGE: The CFS (Climate Forecast System) model does hint at much colder air returning to the Deep South toward the end of January…

WORLD CLASS TENNIS RETURNS TO BIRMINGHAM:  The BJCC will host the first-round tie against Switzerland February 3rd-5th.  Single-day tickets are on sale now.  Get them while they last!   Buy tickets here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

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I will speak today at the Tuscaloosa Rotary Club… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Big Warming Trend Ahead

| January 9, 2017 @ 3:18 pm

INTO THE 40s: Temperatures are generally in the 45-49 degree across Alabama this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. And, for a change, most places will stay above freezing tonight as a warming trend begins. However, some of the normally colder spots across Northeast Alabama will still see a low between 28 and 32 early tomorrow.

MID-WEEK: The sky will become mostly cloudy tomorrow, and a few showers are possible tomorrow night, but the best chance will be over the far northern part of the state, across the Tennessee Valley. Tomorrow’s high will be close to 60 degrees.

The sky will be cloudy at times Wednesday and Thursday, but the chance of showers around here will be pretty low as an upper ridge begins to build across the southeast U.S., keeping the really organized rain to the west and north of here. The high Wednesday will be in the upper 60s Wednesday, followed by low 70s Thursday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: These three days look very mild, and mostly dry as the upper ridge stays in place. Highs will be in the 70-73 degree range, with lows in the 50s. While the chance of a shower is not zero, wet weather will remain mostly west and north of Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: The ridge breaks down, and with the approach of a Pacific front we do expect a good chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. No sign of any true Arctic air in here for the next 10-15 days as the gates to the Yukon will be closed for us.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Perfect football weather tonight in Tampa; a clear sky with temperatures falling into the 50s during the game. No rain worries.

WORLD CLASS TENNIS RETURNS TO BIRMINGHAM:  The BJCC will host the first-round tie against Switzerland February 3rd-5th.  Single-day tickets are on sale now.  Get them while they last!   Buy tickets here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Warmer Days Ahead For Alabama

| January 9, 2017 @ 6:19 am

ICE WILL MELT AWAY: Temperatures are mostly in the 20s across Alabama early this morning, but a warming trend begins his afternoon; we project a high in the 45-49 degree range with a good supply of sunshine.

MILD DAYS AHEAD: A big upper air pattern change will evolve across the region this week; the deep upper trough that brought the frigid air will be replaced by an upper ridge. This means mild afternoons, and it will keep the heaviest and most widespread rain west and north of Alabama.

Clouds increase tomorrow, and the high will be close to 60 degrees. A few showers are possible the northern third of the state tomorrow night and Wednesday, but amounts probably won’t be too heavy. And, Wednesday will be noticeably warmer with a high in the upper 60s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A pretty decent chance we see 70 degree warmth on these two days. Yep, this is Alabama…. it never “gets cold and stays cold” here. The sky will be occasionally cloudy, but just a small risk of a shower.

THE WEEKEND: The GFS is printing a high of 74 degrees at Birmingham Saturday… so we can promise no icy travel this weekend. Cloudy periods both days, but only a small risk of a shower. Sunday will be mild as well with a high around 70 degrees. The upper ridge will continue to hold most of the rain west and north of our state.

NEXT WEEK: The ridge breaks down, and should allow a more widespread rain event in here by Tuesday (January 17). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details. No sign of any winter weather mischief for the state for the next 10-15 days.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Perfect football weather tonight in Tampa for the big game between Bama and Clemson. A clear sky, the temperature will fall from 60 degrees at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

WORLD CLASS TENNIS RETURNS TO BIRMINGHAM: The BJCC will host the first-round tie against Switzerland February 3rd-5th. Single-day tickets are on sale now. Get them while they last! Buy tickets here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Warm Christmas Weekend Ahead

| December 22, 2016 @ 3:08 pm

THIS AFTERNOON: The sky is bright and sunny across the northern half of Alabama this afternoon; clouds are confined to the southern counties of the state…

A weak surface front is passing through; north of the front temperatures are in the 50s over the northern third of the state; communities south of the front are in the 60s. Tonight will be clear and chilly; most places drop into the 35-39 degree range by early tomorrow morning.

TOMORROW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY: Tomorrow will be dry and pleasant with a partly sunny sky; the high should be in the low 60s for most places. Then, a pronounced warm-up will take place over the weekend with an upper ridge and southerly low level flow. We rise into the mid 60s Saturday, followed by a high between 70 and 75 degrees on Christmas afternoon. This is our second warm Christmas in a row… here is a list of the warmest temperatures recorded on December 25 (based on data from the Birmingham Airport)…

77 2015
74 1987
73 1982, 1942
72 1964
71 1926, 1922
70 1901
69 1971
68 1974, 1904

A few showers are possible over far North Alabama early Saturday morning, otherwise the weekend looks mostly dry, despite mostly cloudy conditions. The chance of a shower for any one spot during the day Saturday and Sunday is only about one in ten.

TO THE NORTHWEST: A major storm system will bring blizzard conditions to parts of Wyoming and the Dakotas Sunday, with a risk of severe storms to the south across sections of Kansas and Oklahoma. But, the good news is that there is no risk of severe weather in Alabama this year on Christmas Day.

NEXT WEEK: We stay warm Monday through Wednesday with a stalled front north of the state; we could see a few widely scattered showers on these three days, but nothing widespread or heavy. Rain is likely by Thursday with a cold front approaching from the north, and it looks like this will push through Thursday night, followed by sharply colder temperatures Friday, with highs potentially dropping into the 40s, and lows in the 20s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

DROUGHT MONITOR: New data this morning still shows a severe to exceptional drought for much of the state…

Many communities are still over 10 inches below average for the year.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look of the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Very Mild Christmas Weekend Ahead

| December 22, 2016 @ 6:13 am

TRENDING WARMER: Dry weather will continue across Alabama through tomorrow with partly sunny days and fair nights; the high should be in the 60-65 degree range both days.

The upper air pattern has changed across North America, and the “gates to the Yukon” are closed for now, shutting off the flow of very cold, Arctic air. As an upper high develops over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, creeping into Alabama from the south, it will set the stage for a warm Christmas weekend.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: With a southerly flow, moisture will increase Saturday, and a few showers are possible, but it sure looks like the best chance of rain will come near the Tennessee border, with only isolated showers to the south. The sky will be mostly cloudy, and temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s.

There are few guarantees in weather, but we can pretty much say with very high confidence there won’t be a white Christmas in Alabama this year. Keep in mind, Birmingham has never had measurable snow on the ground on Christmas morning since weather records started in the late 1800s, so based on climatology the chance of a snowy Christmas morning here is about 0.05%. We do note it snowed on Christmas morning six years ago in 2010, and some communities across North Alabama did have enough snow to measure that rare day.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy and warm with a high in the low 70s; a shower is possible, but not likely.

NORTH AND WEST OF ALABAMA: For travelers, a major storm will be in progress over the nation’s mid-section, with heavy snow and blizzard conditions possible Sunday over states like Wyoming and North Dakota. In the warm sector, severe storms will be a threat to parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.

NEXT WEEK: That big storm system over the Central U.S. will lift northward into Canada, and the trailing front should stall out north of Alabama as it becomes parallel to the upper air winds. The week looks generally cloudy and mild with highs in the 60s along with some risk of scattered light showers; rain seems to be most likely later in the week with the approach of another front with better dynamic support. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

LONG RANGE: The CFS (climate forecast system) model does suggests the return of Arctic cold to the U.S. sometime in late January…

Of course, this is “voodoo” and not a specific forecast, but just an idea based on pattern recognition.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Foggy, Then Sunny And Warmer

| December 21, 2016 @ 6:34 am

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY: Freezing fog is simply fog that forms when surface temperatures are at or below freezing, and we have that situation over North Alabama early this morning. Where the fog is dense, some patchy bridge icing is possible, so take a little extra time to get to work this morning. To the south, where temperatures are above freezing, we have a “dense fog advisory” all the way down to the Gulf Coast.

The good news… once the fog burns off today will brighter and warmer, with ample sunshine and a high around 60 degrees.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Dry, pleasant weather continues both days. A partly to mostly sunny sky with afternoon highs holding near 60 degrees.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: A southerly flow will push moist air up into the state, and the sky becomes mostly cloudy Saturday. A few showers are possible, but the most widespread rain will be over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama. Christmas Day for now looks mostly cloudy and mild with the risk of a few widely scattered showers; we could very well touch 70 degrees Sunday afternoon.

CHRISTMAS CLIMATOLOGY IN ALABAMA: For Birmingham on December 25, the average high is 54, and the average low is 34. But you rarely will find a Christmas with those numbers. On the warm side, people in Alabama were outside in their shorts and t-shirts on Christmas Eve, 1964 when the temperature soared to 77 degrees. Our warmest Christmas Day on record came last year, when the high in Birmingham was also 77.

FYI… the warmest December temperature on record is 80, recorded on December 7, 1951.

No, having mild weather at Christmas is not unusual at this low latitude. In Alabama, it never “gets cold and stays cold”. If you are looking for that kind of winter, head north. But, from time to time, we can have Arctic blasts in late December. The coldest Christmas morning on record came in 1983, when the low in Birmingham was 2 degrees above zero. In 1989, on December 23, the temperature dropped to 1 degree.

NEXT WEEK: A surface front will stall out just north of here, so it looks like Monday and Tuesday will stay mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, but nothing especially heavy or widespread; highs will be in the 60s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Trending Warmer In Coming Days

| December 20, 2016 @ 6:20 am

THIS MORNING: Quite frankly our beloved computer models, the heart of NWP (numerical weather prediction), have been struggling with this pattern. Most models had us in the 40s yesterday, but almost all reporting stations in the state remained in the 30s with a stubborn cloud deck. And, those clouds are still around this morning.

Temperatures have been steady, or slowly rising during the pre-dawn hours, and most communities are in the mid to upper 30s. We will forecast morning clouds giving way to a partly sunny afternoon, and where the sun does break out temperatures should reach the low 50s today. But, where clouds hang tough, the high will be in the 40s.

REST OF THE WEEK: With a brighter sky tomorrow, a good chance we touch the 60 degree mark. And, dry weather continues Thursday and Friday with highs between 56 and 61 with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: A southerly flow will bring moist air back up into Alabama, and accordingly the sky will be mostly cloudy both days. The GFS is now suggesting a few showers are possible Saturday over the northern third of the state, and we will introduce that possibility into the forecast. And, on Christmas Day, a few scattered showers are possible, but nothing heavy or widespread. Temperatures will be mild; low 60s are likely Saturday, followed by upper 60s Sunday. South Alabama will likely see low 70s Sunday afternoon. Sorry snow fans, not even a remote chance of a snow flake around here.

A significant storm system will set up this weekend over the nation’s mid-section, with snow likely over states like Colorado and Wyoming, and showers and strong storms in the warm sector across the Great Plains…

NEXT WEEK: We will maintain the risk of showers into the first part of next week as moist air stays in place, but the main dynamic support will be north and west of Alabama thanks to an upper high setting up over Florida. Unfortunately rain amounts should remain on the light side. Also, temperatures will stay mild with highs well up in the 60s much of next week as the Polar Express will be shut down for a while.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!