Severe Storms Possible Tonight; Highest Risk Over South Alabama

RADAR CHECK: Rain is widespread over the northern counties of Alabama this afternoon, north of a warm front that is over South Alabama. There is a huge temperature range; many communities across Northeast Alabama are in the 40s thanks to a “cold air damming” pattern that brings in colder air from the east. But, Dothan and some other spots across Southeast Alabama are in the low 80s.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SPC has defined an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for parts of Central and South Alabama through tonight…

A tornado watch has also been issued for Southwest Alabama until 10p CT…

Here are the key messages for tonight’s severe weather threat in Alabama:

*The northern extent of the severe weather threat will be determined by the position of the warm front. Most of the reliable high resolution models move the front to a position near, or just north of U.S. 80 tonight. Meaning, the core threat of severe storms will be over the southern half of the state. The air over most of North Alabama will remain rain-cooled and stable. And, of course, where temperatures are in the 40s over Northeast Alabama there is no risk of severe storms.

*There will be multiple waves of storms from roughly 3:00 p.m. until midnight. A few severe storms could linger into the pre-dawn hours across Southeast Alabama, although the intensity levels should be decreasing.

*Heavier storms tonight over the southern half of Alabama will be capable of producing strong winds and a few tornadoes. Highest tornado threat is in the “enhanced risk” area, especially along and south of U.S. 80.

*A flood watch remains in effect for parts of Central and Northeast Alabama through tonight. Additional rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely.

Any lingering showers will end early in the day tomorrow, followed by a clearing sky. A freeze is likely early Friday morning for North Alabama; the day will be mostly sunny with a high in the 58-64 degree range.

STORMY WEEKEND: A dynamic weather system will bring another threat of severe thunderstorms to Alabama over the weekend. SPC has defined a risk for most all of Alabama, with an enhanced risk for the western counties of the state.

Saturday will be a mild and windy day with temperatures reaching the 70s. Much of the day will be dry… then an organized batch of rain and storms will arrive Saturday night into the pre-dawn hours Sunday. All modes of severe weather will be possible, but we need to get today’s system out of here before we can be specific about the magnitude of the event, the timing, and the tornado threat.

Sunday will be cooler and breezy with a clearing sky, and a freeze is likely for most of the state by Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: The week will be cool with highs in the 40s and 50s; global models continue to suggest a big rain maker at mid-week (either Wednesday or Thursday). See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

ON THIS DATE IN 1958: Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th.

Look for the next video briefing here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: ANC, featured, storms

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos