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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Bill Murray

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Flood Advisory Issued

| 10:27 pm November 16, 2014

The National Weather Service In Birmingham Has Issued An

– Urban And Small Stream Flood Advisory For
Southern Jefferson County In Alabama
Northern Shelby County In Alabama

– Until 1245 AM CST.

These are Doppler Radar estimated rainfall amounts so far today.

2014-11-16_22-22-50

The flood advisory is outlined in green.

As you can see, widespread two inch rainfall amounts have fallen so far from Greene County into southern Jefferson and northern Shelby Counties.

The NWS Office at the Shelby County Airport has picked up 1.72 inches of rain through 10:09 p.m.

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As you can see, it will continue to rain heavily in some areas into the early morning hours.

Since it has been so dry, flooding is not a major concern, but ponding on roadways and minor flooding in urban areas will continue until the rainfall abates later.

Heavy Rain Falling

| 7:31 pm November 16, 2014

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Heavy rain is falling tonight across parts of North Central Alabama generally in the I-20 corridor just to the north of a frontal boundary and low pressure system.

It is a rough drive right now from Hoover to Tuscaloosa on I-20/59 with lots of heavy rain.

Be careful on area roads as there will definitely be ponding on streets and highways.

So far, 0.76 inches of rain rain has fallen at the Birmingham Airport as of 7 p.m. Another inch is likely before the rain ends late tonight.

Really Cold Air On The Way

| 1:54 pm November 16, 2014

Rain overspread Northwest Alabama early this morning as advertised, in advance of a very powerful upper trough that is bringing some amazingly cold air to the center of the country and aided by a frontal system that lies generally along and north of I-20.   Low pressure centers are lined up back along the front which extends across southern Mississippi.

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UPSTREAM TEMPS: It is interesting to note at early afternoon, temperatures are in the teens and 20s across Kansas, 30s over Arkansas and in the 40s over northern Mississippi. It was 18F at noon at Chanute, KS with heavy snow and 23F at Joplin MO with heavy snow as well. It was 39F at Little Rock and 43F at Greenwood MS. In sharp contrast, it is 70F at Mobile.

NOWCAST: As of the noon hour, rain had overspread much of the space north of I-59 and was steadily advancing eastward. This first wave of rain will continue to do so through the afternoon hours leading to a gentle, soaking rain for most locations. North of the front, temperatures are in the 40s in places like Hamilton, Muscle Shoals and Huntsville. There will likely be some evaporative cooling as rain begins to fall in areas that are in the 50s, setting the stage for a cold rain. Over three quarters of an inch of rain has fallen at Muscle Shoals this morning and much of the area should see at least one half of an inch this afternoon. Great weather for a nap.

WAVE #2: Another wave of rain will overspread the area tonight as another of those surface disturbances ripples northeastward along the front. There is currently some lightning over southwestern Mississippi and even a tornado warning west of Lafayette LA. There is a slight risk severe weather outlook in effect along the Gulf Coast from Fort Walton back to Lake Charles LA. As this low passes by, the front will start dropping southeastward pushing the rain with it. Rain should end in places like Hamilton and Carrollton by 3 a.m. or so, Birmingham and Tuscaloosa around 6 a.m. and over East Alabama soon after that. The rain should be basically out of the state by noon.   Overnight rainfall amounts may be over an inch, with accumulated totals finishing around 2 inches in some spots.

SEVERE WEATHER? I know you zeroed in on my comment about a tornado warning. No, there is no threat of that coming to Alabama. Instabilities may well support a little thunder tonight in areas south of I-20.

2014 November Animated

ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES: Wasn’t it the Ohio Players that sang about the Rollercoaster of Love? The theme of this paragraph will be the Rollercoaster of Temperatures. Although the screaming message is the coming cold, there are a couple of things meteorologically that some of our friends will experience. As the second low pushes northeast tonight, temperatures may jump into the 50s and 60s as far north as I-20, in places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Clanton, Talladega and Ashland as well as points south. Temperatures will fall during the morning across the area, with Monday daytime highs likely occurring before sunrise in many areas. That is always interesting. Temperatures will be in the lower 40s in the I-20 corridor during much of the day, falling back into the 30s during the late afternoon. Places to the north will remain in the 30s all day. The Arctic front will arrive Monday night, plunging temperatures into the lower 20s with a few teens by Tuesday morning.

FRIGID TUESDAY: Highs on Tuesday will likely not get above freezing in places along and north of I-20. We are talking highs around 30-32F. It will be a day for bundling up and dressing warmly.

TO WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND: Wednesday morning will likely be as cold if not a degree or two colder than Tuesday morning, with teens and lower 20s prevailing. Most areas should warm back to the upper 40s by Wednesday afternoon. Moderation will occur starting Thursday with 50s likely again and continuing on Friday – Sunday. The next rain chances will come late Thursday night into Friday as another front system starts acting up over the south. It could be followed by another round of rain on Sunday.

THANKSGIVING SNEAK PEEK:   Some snow looks possible in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys along with cold weather over the Southeast.

Atlanta Snowjam Will Be Topic At NWA Chapter Meeting Monday Night 11/17

| 1:08 pm November 11, 2014

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-Credit Mark Bradley AJC http://markbradley.blog.ajc.com/2014/01/29/snowjam-2014-atlanta-at-its-absolute-worst/

Sorry for the late notice, but finding a venue for our last full chapter meeting was difficult this time. However, we have an outstanding speaker lined up for the meeting this coming Monday, November 17th at 7 p.m. at the Medical Forum Building at the Civic Center downtown.

Keith Stellman is the Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service in Atlanta. He is responsible for forecasts and warnings for 96 counties in the northern part of Georgia. He will be speaking on a subject that is near and dear to our hearts: the January 28th winter storm in the Southeast U.S.

Stellman

Like Birmingham, Atlanta has rarely been exposed to the unique and devastating combination of dramatically below freezing temperatures at onset of frozen precipitation on a weekday. Like here, a humanitarian crisis ensued with tens of thousands of commuters stranded on area highways.

Keith will focus on the meteorological factors that made this event so significant, the forecasts and warnings and lessons learned from them as well as the human and government response.

The meeting will be held in Meeting Room F in the Forum Building at 950 22nd Street North. This is the building to the east of the Sheraton and has an entrance at ground level on 22nd Street. You can also access it from the 3rd level of the parking deck.

You can park in the 22nd street deck and we will have parking validation. Or you can park on the street around the complex.

Doors will open at 6:30 p.m. and the meeting and presentation will start at 7 p.m.

upsilon

The meeting is free to members of the Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association. Visitors may attend for $10. You can join the chapter at:

http://groupspaces.com/CentralAlabamaNWAChapter/

The Chapter Holiday Party will be announced at the meeting.

This meting is being sponsored by the Westin and BJCC. Thanks to them for their support.

-Bill Murray

Sunny Sunday

| 4:46 pm November 2, 2014

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Looking at the weather maps today, we see surface high pressure dominating the eastern half of the U.S. That 1033 millibar high (translation=pretty strong) is centered from southern Kentucky to Central Mississippi. In the mid levels and upper levels of the atmosphere, we see a big wave pattern, with a trough over the eastern U.S., a ridge in the middle and a trough in the West. Clouds that were moving in from the northwest earlier have dried out as they pushed across Arkansas and western Tennessee into northern Mississippi. Hence they will not have much of an impact on our skies through the evening.

FIRST FREEZE OF SEASON AT BIRMINGHAM: It was a cold morning across Alabama with freezing temperatures generally north of I-59 and a few thrown in down into Southwest Alabama. Birmingham fell to 28F, while Calera was 6 degrees warmer at 34F. Tuscaloosa checked in with 30F and Anniston measured 29F. Interestingly, North Alabama readings were not substantially colder. Russellville won the cold weather lottery with 25F. The 28F at Birmingham was the coldest since March 26th and the first freeze since April 16th. Most folks should stay above freezing for the next few days with the exception of Eastern Alabama, where some freezing readings will likely drop below 32F tonight.

GETTING DARK EARLY TODAY: Sunset will come much earlier today because of the Daylight Saving Time change that occurred early this morning. Hopefully you weren’t an hour early for church or brunch! Highs this afternoon will rise into the upper 50s across the area. As mentioned early, most folks will be above freezing, in the 30s tonight, except for places like Gadsden, Fort Payne and Anniston in East Alabama. But look for frost still across much of the area anyway as grass and exposed automobiles fall to below freeze after dew forms.

SUNSHINE AHEAD: Plenty of sun in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. And that surface high will slide east, giving us southerly surface winds by morning. That means moderating temperatures. With lots of sunshine, highs on Monday will be in the middle 60s with upper 60s to near 70F by Tuesday.

MIDWEEK WET WEATHER SYSTEM: Showers and storms will enter Northwest Alabama ahead of a cold front Wednesday night and will push southeastward through the state overnight. It should be weakening as it pushes toward I-59, but it will bring a soaking rain to the area late Wednesday night and early Thursday. Don’t look for great amounts of rainfall. Average amounts should be around a quarter of an inch. The GFS is a little slower with the system’s exit , keeping rain in the forecast deeper into the day on Thursday. Expect a high near 70F on Wednesday, but readings will fall back into the lower 60s on Thursday and be limited to the 50s on Friday. Lows will drop to around 40F by Friday morning.

November Almanac

| 9:00 am November 1, 2014


Photograph by Kathy Bell, owner of kbella photography.

“November is the most disagreeable month in the whole year.” Louisa May Alcott

November is the transition month to winter across much of the country, and Alabama is no exception. The days are approaching their shortest of the year, and the heat budget is becoming increasingly negative, so average temperatures are dropping.

The storm track is becoming more active and precipitation totals are increasing. There is a secondary severe weather season in November in Alabama that in some recent years has been busier than the spring primary season. In 2002, an unusually strong outbreak on November 10th produced a series of ten tornadoes across North Alabama that killed 12. Two of the tornadoes were rated F3.

According to the long term averages from 1981-2010, 4.85 inches of rain falls in the month. The most ever observed is 15.25 inches in 1948. It generally rains on 9.1 days. Thunderstorms are observed on average on 1.9 November days. On average, there is no snow. The most snow ever observed in November was 1.4 inches in 1950.

At the start of the month, the average high is 69 degrees. It will fall to 60 degrees by month’s end. The normal monthly high is 64.0F. In November 1931, the normal high was 72.4F, the warmest November on record. It has been as warm as 85F, in 1998, 2000 and 2003.

Average lows start off at 46 degrees, and fall to 38 by month’s end. The average low is 41.8F. The coldest average low was in the cold winter of 1976-77, when the November average low was 33.8F. In the eleventh month, it has been as cold as 5F, back on November 25, 1950. The next coldest reading was 8 degrees higher…on November 24, 1970.

The sky is cloudy 33 percent of the time. The sky is clear 31 percent of the time. Only October averages more clear sky time in the Magic City. Dense fog is observed on one day in the month on average.

Hanna Forms

| 8:53 am October 27, 2014

Hanna avn_lalo-animated

The remnant low from Tropical Depression #9, which formed over the southwestern Caribbean last week and moved across the Yucatan into the northwestern Caribbean has developed into Tropical Storm Hanna this morning.

Hanna 130316W5_NL_sm

It is very near the coast of Nicaragua and will move into that country today. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Top winds are 40 mph. Heavy rains of 10-15 inches will be the main problem with life threatening landslides likely.

Gorgeous Sunday

| 11:45 am October 26, 2014

Well, the Perfect Weather Warning for yesterday certainly verified across Central and North Alabama with plentiful sunshine, light winds and perfect temperatures.  High on Saturday ranged from 76F at Anniston to 77F at Birmingham/Calera to 80F at Tuscaloosa.  You usually can’t beat October weather in our great state and Saturday was no exception.

TODAY AIN’T BAD EITHER:  Another gorgeous day is in progress across the area.  Most areas woke up in the 50s with a few 40s across the Tennessee Valley, including 48F at Fort Payne, 40F at Courtland and the state’s icebox, Valley Head, checked in with 38F.   A little patchy fog was around in spots, mainly around bodies of water that were warmer than the air temperature.  Fog was pretty dense and long lasting in the major river valleys.  You can clearly see it on visible satellite imagery this morning.

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Temperatures were well on their way to afternoon highs in the lower 80s by the noon hour.  Only the higher spots in Northeast Alabama will qualify for a Perfect Weather designation today, where highs will remain in the upper 70s.  But the rest of our weather is nothing to be ashamed of.

TONIGHT:  Under mostly clear skies tonight, temperatures will drop in the 50s rather uniformly, with 40s limited to those normally colder locations.

WORKWEEK AHEAD:  Monday looks ideal as well with highs in the 80s.  Tuesday will feature an approaching cold front, with rain pushing into Northwest Alabama late Tuesday night.  But he system will be weakening and rain chances will going down as the front pushes southeastward., For the I-20/59 corridor, the best chances will be during the day on Wednesday with Wednesday night activities going off without a weather hitch.   After the front makes it through Thursday, a cool down will push temperatures back to seasonable levels.  Highs Wednesday through Thursday will be around 70F with lows in the 40s.

WEEKEND SNEAK PEEK: A  reinforcing shot of cooler air will bring highs back to around 60F for Saturday and there is a chance some spots won’t get out of the 50s Saturday and Sunday.  Lows will drop back into the 30s and 40s.  No rain is expected.