Category: National and World
Here is an update as of 6:27 p.m. from the NWS in New York City:
Good evening, The storm total at Central Park, NY up to 7 pm is 25.1 inches. The liquid equivalent for the event is 2.19″ This snowfall ranks #3 since records have been kept in 1869.
The huge snowstorm pounding the East Coast is threatening to break several all time snowfall records, including the all time record from a single storm for Central Park in New York City. Central Park is the official record location for New York City.
NEW YORK CITY
So far, the three major NYC Airports have picked up the following snowfall amounts through 5 p.m. CST:
…Central Park 25.1″ (through 6 p.m. CST)
And New York City is directly under a huge snow band that is basically stationary over the area. It may continue to snow heavily through 10 p.m. CST. With snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour and more, it is conceivable that Central Park could hit 25-29 inches! That would be the all time record for a single storm. The official forecast is for 26.5 inches. (We are expecting an update from Central Park any moment.)
New York City’s greatest snowstorms:
26.9 February 11-12, 2006
25.8 December 26-27,1947 (some sources say 26.4)
…25.1 January 22-23, 2016 (through 6 p.m.)…
21.0 March 12-14, 1888
20.9 February 25-26, 2010
20.2 January 7-8, 1996
20.0 December 26-27, 2010
19.8 February 16-17, 2003
19.0 January 26-27, 2011
18.1 January 22-24, 1935
18.1 March 7-8, 1941
17.8 is the official storm total for Reagan National (that information just in at 6:07 p.m. CST). This is good enough to tie for 4th place on the all time list for Washington DC snowstorms (tied with the February 25-26, 2010 storm). They could easily make 3rd place before the night is over despite the fact that the snow is diminishing in D.C.
Dulles has picked up 28.3 inches.
Blizzard conditions were officially observed this morning in D.C.
So far, several snowfall totals over 36 inches have been observed, including 40 inches at Glengary WV. 39 inch totals have been observed at Jones Springs and Shpherstown WV and 39 inches near Philomont VA. In Maryland, 37 inches was observed at North Potomac Maryland.
The all time record 24 hour snowfall total for Maryland is 31 inches at Clear Spring in 1942. West Virginia’s is 35 inches at Flat Top in 1998. Virginia’s is 33.5 inches in 1994 in Luray. Some all time state records may fall.
Here is the official NWS forecast for total snowfall from the National Digital Forecast Database.
The Blue Ridge Parkway looks like it will be Ground Zero for this winter storm with 25-30 inches of snow between now and Sunday. A blizzard warning is in effect for the Blue Ridge.
A secondary maximum will be over the Gauley Mountains of West Virginia where the forecast is for 30 inches of snow in Pocahontas County.
Let’s go area by area and see the main impacts:
Almost no snow. It will be windy though. Gale watches are in effect in the harbors along the Connecticut and Rhode Island coasts.
NEW YORK CITY
Right on the borderline, as always seems to be the case. There is considerable disagreement among the models. A blizzard watch has been issued for much of eastern Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, much of New Jersey, the NYC area and Long Island. Official snow forecast is 9 inches. Winds could gust to 45 mph. A coastal flood watch is in effect Saturday night.
15 inches of snow expected. Blizzard watch in effect. Snow most of the day on Saturday.
Blizzard warning in effect. Snow accumulations of more than two feet, with snow developing Friday morning and continuing through Saturday night. Winds could gust to 50 mph. Could be the second biggest snowfall in D.C. history.
Could be in for a crippling ice storm with sleet and freezing rain through much of the day Friday. 0.4 inches of ice accretion and 1-2 inches of sleet by Friday night with another .1 inch of ice. Half an inch of ice can cause huge problems.
Will be hard hit with 8-12 inches of snow across a wide area. Over 6 inches in Louisville and nearly 11 inches in Lexington. Over a foot of snow in eastern Kentucky. Winter storm warnings are in effect.
Heaviest snow in western Tennessee, with nearly six inches possible in Memphis and 7 inches in Jackson TN. 3-8 inches across the entire state of Tennessee. Up to five inches over northwestern Mississippi south of Memphis. 1-5 inches of snow across the northern third of Mississippi.
1/2-3 inches of snow, with the heaviest amounts over Northwest Alabama. Winter weather advisories are in effect.
1-3 inches across northern Georgia and upstate South Carolina, except for higher amounts in the mountains of northern Georgia and the foothills of South Carolina.
Supercells moving across North Texas tonight ahead of a cold front have produced multiple tornadoes, including a large and extremely dangerous tornado that crossed the Dallas area between 6-7 p.m. tonight.
It touched down around 6:47 in eastern Dallas County north of Sunnyvale.
It caused damage in and around Garland, where we have heard reports that there may be fatalities. (LATE REPORT AT 8:33: WFAA Is reporting four fatalities in Garland.)
The tornado then struck Rowlett.
Here is a photo from Fox 4 in Dallas of the tornado near Rowlett.
it went across the lake from Rowlett to Rockwall, rolling cars off the 66 Bridge.
For the past few weeks, we have been keeping our fingers crossed as we were in a position to end the year as the least deadly year in U.S. tornado history. Then Wednesday’s long track deadly tornado carved a 135 mile path across Mississippi and into Tennessee, killing seven. And now this tonight. Our thoughts and prayers are with the folks in North Texas tonight.
Up until today, the United States was on a path that would lead to an all-time record low number of tornado fatalities for the year.
But there are numerous reports from spotters and other sources of at least some fatalities near Holly Springs MS this afternoon from a long track, well forecast and well warned tornado that is still on the ground in southern Tennessee.
A Tornado Warning [tornado: OBSERVED, tornado damage threat: CONSIDERABLE, hail: 1.25 IN] for McNairy [TN] till 5:45 PM CST …AT 518 PM CST…A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF SELMER…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. THE PEROPLE IN SELMER ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM AND NEED TO TAKE COVER NOW.
This tornado (or family of tornadoes) may have been on the ground for over 130 miles!
Now there is a confirmed tornado on the ground near Oxford MS as well!
The 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season was fairly slow, as had been predicted in most seasonal forecasts. There were eleven named storms, which is very close to the long term average of 11.5. Four of the storms became hurricanes and two went on to become major hurricanes, below the long term averages of 6.1 hurricanes and 2.6 major hurricanes.
The season got started well before the official start date of June 1st, when Tropical Storm Ana formed from a non-tropical low on May 8th. The system had peak winds of 60 mph as it crossed over the Gulf Stream. It would weaken as it moved off the Gulf Stream and go on to make landfall on the northeastern coast of South Carolina with winds of 45 mph.
A named storm forms in the Atlantic in June in just about every other year on average, and Bill did just that, jumping straight to tropical storm status on the first advisory based on aircraft reconnaissance data. The storm was designated Bill on the evening of June 15th with a well defined circulation center some 175 miles east southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. It made landfall later on the 16th on Matagorda Island, with a central pressure of 997 mb and top winds of 60 mph.
The storm remained unusually organized as it made the trek northward across Texas and into Oklahoma, perhaps aided by the “brown island effect” of saturated ground from recent heavy rain over the southern Plains. Newport, Oklahoma picked up a two day rain total of 11.52 inches. I-35 was closed in the Arbuckle Mountains due to a rock slide.
A tropical depression formed about 250 miles east northeast of Cape Hatteras on July 16th. SIx hours later it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Claudette. The storm weakened as it moved northeastward and merged with a frontal boundary, but it still produced adverse weather in Newfoundland, where flights were canceled.
Danny was a Cape Verde storm that became the season’s first major hurricane with top winds of 115 mph. Danny would weaken due to dry air and wind shear and dissipated before reaching the Leeward Islands.
Tropical Storm Erika was another Cape Verde storm like Danny, but never got its act together. The storm formed on August 25th and steamed across the Atlantic, making landfall on Dominica and in Hispaniola. The storm dissipated while dodging Cuba, but brought heavy rains to South Florida.
Hurricane Fred formed from a very strong tropical wave that moved off Africa on August 29th, became a depression on the 30th and quickly became a hurricane on the 31st. It is the furthest east that a hurricane has ever formed in the Atlantic and prompted hurricane warnings for the Cape Verde Islands for the first time in history.
The season entered a boring period, with unremarkable tropical storms named Grace, Henri and Ida forming over the open Atlantic and dissipating before affecting any land areas.
Hurricane Joaquin stole the show during the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Joaquin formed east of the Bahamas on September 28th and became a tropical storm on the following day as it moved in a southwesterly direction toward the Bahamas. It would continue to strengthen and became a major hurricane on the evening of the 30th. Hurricane Joaquin would affect the Bahamas as a category four hurricane, but would weaken as it moved through the islands. Joaquin turned to the northeast and very nearly achieved category five status when its top winds reached 155 mph. It was the most intense Atlantic hurricane since Igor in 2010. Fortunately, Joaquin weakened before it impacted Bermuda with heavy rain and tropical storm force winds.
The official National Hurricane Center forecasts predicted for three days that Joaquin could impact the eastern United States, despite strong indications from the European model that the storm would remain well offshore. This led to considerable angst along the East Coast and a look at how the National Hurricane Center’s Cone of Uncertainty is used in such situations.
Part of the moisture pulled northward by Joaquin would be pulled back into South Carolina by a big upper level low, which resulted in catastrophic flooding in the Palmetto State.
The final named storm was Kate, which became a hurricane on November 11th, making it the latest hurricane since Epsilon in 2005. Kate affected the southeastern Bahamas, but recurved off the East Coast of the U.S. and missing Bermuda.
While the storm counts were slightly below the long term averages, the energy expended by the eleven storms was just 59 percent of normal. The Atlantic basin was dominated by El Nino conditions during the hurricane season. The higher than normal wind shear contributed to the below normal activity.
For the tenth straight year, there has been no landfall of a major hurricane in the United States. It hasn’t happened since Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. In addition, Florida has not bit hit by ANY hurricane of any intensity since Wilma.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family on this special holiday. The weather is certainly cooperating for us here in Alabama, although that is not the case all around the country.
Boy, the weather held off just long enough nationally to get everyone to Grandma’s house, and it has gone downhill today across a large area of the West and the Plains.
A powerful upper level trough across the West is poised to caused a wide array of bad weather over the next several days. The axis of the trough extends from williston ND to Pocatello, Idaho to Fresno, California this afternoon.
Ahead of it, widespread precipitation is occurring, including snow across the Mountains of the Wes, into the Central Plains and Midwest, from Nebraska to Upper Michigan. A wintry mix is occurring from northeastern New Mexico through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, Central Kansas and into Iowa. Ice storm warnings cover a wide area from eastern New Mexico, northwestern Texas, western Teas and the southern part of Kansas. There is a high probability of a 1/4 inch accumulation of ice from the Texas Panhandle into Iowa. One half inch of ice will accumulate across parts of western Oklahoma.
From the Oklahoma State Climatologist Gary McManus: Given the recent developments, I’m afraid we’re going to have to upgrade the
EMERGENCY BREAD AND MILK DEF-BRAUMS LEVEL to LEVEL ONE across west central through north central Oklahoma. That’s serious!
Ahead of this shield of wintry precip, rain is occurring from southern New Mexico and Texas all the way into the Great Lakes. A rapidly weakening Hurricane Sandra, over the eastern Pacific, will interject its moisture into the system over the weekend. The system has top winds of 115 mph this afternoon, but will will weaken to a depression before it makes landfall early Saturday in the Mexican state of Durango.
Incredible rainfall amounts will fall over the southern Plains over the next five days (how many times have we said that this year?). 8 to 9 inches is expected across southern and eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Tishomingo in southern Oklahoma has picked up 70.90 inches of rain so far this year. Another 9 inches would be incredible!
Flash flood watches are in effect from Dallas to St. Louis.
HERE AT HOME
Absolutely gorgeous weather for Thanksgiving here in Alabama. Skies are sunny and temperatures are in the lower 70s at every major reporting station across the state. The nearest rain is a few light showers along the Northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. A nice southeasterly wind is making it feel even balmier.
We stay dry through the Black Friday shopping experience. It will be mild for the early morning shoppers, with lows just in the 50s. Iron Bowl Saturday will be dry as well, with temperatures in the 70s for the big game. Rain will not arrive until late in the day on Sunday.
Got travel plans for Thanksgiving Day? Here’s a look at the probability of precipitation across the United States for Thanksgiving Day from 6 am to 6 pm. Looks like a large swath of the Central US from Central Texas across eastern Kansas and northeastward into Lake Michigan will see the best chances for precipitation, most of that rain. There is also a bullseye in Wyoming and much of that is likely to be snow.
Whatever your travel plans might be, please be safe in all that you do. Happy Thanksgiving.
Typhoon Chapala remained a hurricane this morning and continued to churn across the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden as it gets closer to landfall in Yemen.
This is the latest satellite view of Chapala. It was getting closer to Yemen after brushing just north of the island of Socotra in the Arabian Sea. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) placed Chapala’s wind at 105 knots this morning with gusts to 130 knots (120 mph with gusts to 150 mph). The forecasters there continued to predict a gradual weakening trend as Chapala makes its was toward landfall just to the west of Mukalla (or Al Mukalla on some maps) around midnight tonight. Once the eye has made landfall, the tropical cyclone should diminish in strength rapidly falling below tropical storm strength about 24 hours after landfall. Here’s the graphic from JTWC.
Here’s another view of Cyclone Chapala.
Saw this in my rambling around the Internet today, and I thought I would share it with blog readers. Incredible rainfall amounts with 21.04″ in near Huger, SC, 24.23″ near Mount Pleasant, SC, 22.47″ near Shadowmoss, SC, and 20.37″ near Charleston to name some of the highest amounts.
And to make matters worse, there are reports of a dam collapse at Semmes Lake which is at Fort Jackson, SC, near Columbia, SC. No idea of the size of the dam, but that’s just one more thing the DO NOT NEED!!
NOUS42 KCHS 041540 PNSCHS GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-050200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1140 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL REPORTS FROM COCORAHS...ASOS...RAWS...AND SPOTTER REPORTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY 3-DAY AMOUNTS BEGINNING AT 7 AM THURSDAY 1 OCTOBER 2015. ********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS RAINFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT SOUTH CAROLINA ...ALLENDALE COUNTY... 2 SE ALLENDALE 2.61 600 AM 10/04 COCORAHS ...BEAUFORT COUNTY... 4 N HILTON HEAD ISLA 5.77 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 4 NNE BEAUFORT 5.47 839 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 3 N BEAUFORT 5.30 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 NNE BLUFFTON 2.15 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 6 WNW BLUFFTON 2.04 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS ...BERKELEY COUNTY... 3 NNE HUGER 21.04 900 AM 10/04 USGS SITE 1 NNW LIMERICK 19.71 900 AM 10/04 RAWS 5 NNW HUGER 18.32 429 AM 10/04 STORM TOTAL 4 E MONCKS CORNER 17.02 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 1 SSW WANDO 16.90 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 3 NW BONNEAU 16.71 1030 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 3 NE MONCKS CORNER 16.17 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 1 SSW DANIEL ISLAND 15.67 830 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 1 SSE HANAHAN 15.30 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 7 SW MONCKS CORNER 15.08 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 1 N HANAHAN 14.39 945 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 3 NE SUMMERVILLE 13.75 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 4 NE SUMMERVILLE 13.36 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 5 WNW GOOSE CREEK 12.96 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 5 E GOOSE CREEK 12.79 900 AM 10/04 USGS SITE ...CHARLESTON COUNTY... 6 NE MOUNT PLEASANT 24.23 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 3 SSW SHADOWMOSS 22.47 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 5 SSE CHARLESTON 20.37 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 4 NNW KIAWAH ISLAND 18.25 700 AM 10/04 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 S CHARLESTON 17.04 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 NNW GARRIS LANDING 17.03 427 AM 10/04 STORM TOTAL 1 NNE JAMES ISLAND C 17.00 929 AM 10/04 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 ENE CHARLESTON 16.88 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 1 E CHARLESTON 16.84 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS CHARLESTON AIRPORT 16.61 900 AM 10/04 ASOS 6 NW CHARLESTON 16.52 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS NWS CHARLESTON SC 16.49 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 3 NE CHARLESTON 16.46 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 4 ESE NORTH CHARLEST 16.32 823 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 ESE MOUNT PLEASANT 16.16 711 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 NE JOHNS ISLAND 15.91 730 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 NE KIAWAH ISLAND 15.69 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 4 N NORTH CHARLESTON 15.33 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 3 NNE CHARLESTON 15.14 745 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 5 SW AWENDAW 15.02 723 AM 10/04 RAWS CHARLESTON 14.74 930 AM 10/04 OFFICIAL NWS OBS 5 WNW CHARLESTON 14.74 600 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 1 WSW MOUNT PLEASANT 14.37 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 1 SW MOUNT PLEASANT 14.26 640 AM 10/04 COCORAHS CHARLESTON INTERNATI 14.22 756 AM 10/04 ASOS 2 SSW WADMALAW ISLAN 14.02 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 1 ESE MCCLELLANVILLE 13.88 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 WSW CHARLESTON 13.88 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 3 E MOUNT PLEASANT 13.78 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS ESE MCCLELLANVILLE 13.78 630 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 WNW RAVENEL 12.02 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 W MEGGETT 11.77 745 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 S MOUNT PLEASANT 11.70 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS ...COLLETON COUNTY... 3 ENE WALTERBORO 7.87 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 ENE WALTERBORO 7.57 707 AM 10/04 RAWS 3 NNW WALTERBORO 7.37 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 3 SW LODGE 6.31 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 8 NE YEMASSEE 5.29 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS ESE SMOAKS 5.08 600 AM 10/04 COCORAHS ...DORCHESTER COUNTY... 3 NW SUMMERVILLE 17.23 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 1 SSW SUMMERVILLE 15.86 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 N SUMMERVILLE 15.16 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 W SUMMERVILLE 14.65 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 7 S RIDGEVILLE 13.62 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS SUMMERVILLE 4W 14.75 700 AM 10/04 CO-OP OBSERVER ...HAMPTON COUNTY... 1 SW HAMPTON 3.19 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS 2 SSW BRUNSON 2.16 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS GEORGIA ...CHATHAM COUNTY... 11 WSW SAVANNAH 2.40 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS ...SCREVEN COUNTY... MILLHAVEN 2.22 700 AM 10/04 USGS 1 SSE NEWINGTON 2.07 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS &&
While we are mostly interested in the weather in Central Alabama, it’s always interesting to peek in on other places that are having weather. And let’s be honest, our interest is usually piqued when the weather in those other locations is bad. So today there is a lot of interest in South Carolina with their epic flooding and in Bermuda as Hurricane Joaquin slips by the island just to the west.
So I thought blog viewers might be interested in the radar view of Joaquin from the Doppler radar located at the L.F.Wade International Airport in Bermuda. The radar is an S-Band Meteor 1500S built by AMS Gematronik purchased by the Department of Airport Operation and is operated by the Bermuda Weather Service.
As you might imagine, the weather in Bermuda is horrible. This afternoon, about 90 minutes ago, they reported an ESE wind at 39 mph gusting to 51 mph. Highest gust this afternoon has been 55 mph. The pressure has been falling all afternoon as Joaquin traverses the ocean just west of Bermuda and the latest report was 29.36 inches or 994 millibars.
Looking at the radar image, it appears Joaquin should be due west of Bermuda in about 2 to 3 hours with the eastern most eye wall about 80 km from the radar site.
PS I updated this to include a satellite image of Joaquin with Bermuda marked on the map (small black mark just east of Joaquin) for some perspective.