Category: National and World
Many folks will be traveling on the Presidents’ day holiday Monday. Let’s go area by area in the affected region across the South to put the travel impacts in perspective.
Here is the 4 km NAM depiction of the four types of precipitation that can be expected between now and 6 p.m. Monday:
Checking in on warnings and impacts going from west to east:
…Light icing across their northeastern counties along the Red River from Bowie to Sherman to Paris. Just a cold rain for the Metroplex.
…Winter Storm Watch for all of Arkansas, except for the northwestern corner around Fayetteville. Snow is expected across the north in places like Mountain Home and Blytheville, where 2-4 inches of snow will fall. Up to 1/4 of an inch of freezing rain and 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet is expected to fall across the middle of the state in places like Mena and Little Rock. The southeastern part of Arkansas around Pine Bluff is expecting one half inch of freezing rain and and inch of snow and sleet. This will cause significant icing problems including impassable roads, numerous tree limbs falling and widespread power outages. Further south, one tenth of an inch of feezing rain is expected along the US-82 corridor from Texarkana to El Dorado to Timing: beginning Sunday night and continuing through Tuesday.
WESTERN TENNESSEE/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
…Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through much of Tuesday. Up to one tenth of an inch of ice and 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet will fall across western Tennessee, including the Memphis and Jackson areas and across the northern counties of Mississippi, including places like Oxford and Tupelo. This will cause widespread travel problems and some utility outages.
…Winter Storm Watch for the NWS Jackson’s northern tier of counties from Greenville and Greenwood over to Columbus, along the US-82 corridor. One quarter of an inch of ice will cause travel problems and some utility outages. This activity will extend eastward to near Columbus, Areas just south of the US-82 corridor but north of Vicksburg, Jackson and Meridian will experience light icing with some travel problems. South of that, it will be a cold rain.
…Winter Storm Watch for Sunday night through Monday night for 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation across much of much of Middle Tennessee, including Nashville and Lawrenceburg. More snow is likely Tuesday and Tuesday night.
…A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama including Florence, Huntsville/Decatur and Scottboro and Fort Payne starting Sunday night and going through Monday night for 2-4 inches of snow, although there are some recent indications that freezing rain and sleet may be more of a problem as well.
…Winter Storm Watch for areas north of a line generally from Moundville to Calera to Roanoke, including Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Jasper, Birmingham, Pelham, Talladega, Anniston, Jacksonville and ROanoke. Snow beginning in northwestern sections around or after midnight Sunday night, transitioning to a freezing rain and sleet mix through the pre-dawn hours Monday as far south as I-85 between Montgomery and Auburn.
…The NWS Atlanta has not issued a Winter Storm Watch yet as their main impacts will not come until after Sunday night. Accumulated snow and sleep with affect the northern third of the state, including Rome, Atlanta and Gainesville starting Monday and lasting through Tuesday. The area from Rome to Gainesville may see mainly sleet with one half inch causing travel problems. For the Atlanta area, it will be dreaded freezing rain starting Monday morning with the potential for over one quarter of an inch of ice. This will cause significant travel issues and some power outages.
ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.
The remnant low from Tropical Depression #9, which formed over the southwestern Caribbean last week and moved across the Yucatan into the northwestern Caribbean has developed into Tropical Storm Hanna this morning.
It is very near the coast of Nicaragua and will move into that country today. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Top winds are 40 mph. Heavy rains of 10-15 inches will be the main problem with life threatening landslides likely.
The Hurricane Hunters are in Hawaii, but they are not on vacation.
The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters) have deployed two lanes to Joint Base Pearl Harbor to monitor Hurricane Iselle as it makes landfall tonight and to monitor Hurricane Julio as it passes north of the islands this weekend.
I always love the Google Earth depictions of the Hurricane Hunter missions, especially since they look like a Lite Brite, a toy from some of our childhoods.
But these two storms mean business and the Hawaiian Islands are battening down.
If Iselle makes landfall as a hurricane on the Big Island tonight, it will be the first landfall of a hurricane since Iniki in 1992. Only three storms have made landfall as full hurricanes in Hawaii since 1950.
The big island has not had a direct landfall from a full hurricane since modern records began in 1950.
Here is the forecast track for Iselle, showing landfall between 2-3 a.m. CDT, which is 9-10 p.m. Hawaiian time.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the big island of Hawaii, with tropical storm warnings for the rest of the islands. Flash flood watches are in effect for all of the islands.
The storm is unusual in that it has battled an environment full of dry air and decent shear to remain a hurricane. Here is an enhanced satellite image of Iselle.
In a bit, we will take a look at the impact being expected in the islands as Iselle approaches and what affects Julio will have over the weekend.
The upper level trough over the eastern United States continues to keep temperatures on the cool side in places to our north.
The 57F at Jackson KY yesterday was a record for the August 2nd. Roanoke and Danville VA both had record cool maximums as well with 72F.
Record cool continues across the Arklatex as well, as clouds and showers have kept readings cool the past few days. El Dorado AR and Monroe LA both had record cool maximums again yesterday with 81F and 80F respectively.
The 72F at Monroe on Friday and the 69 at El Dorado were all time record cool highs for August.
Just a few more entries in the old weather record books.
Scroll down for Brian’s usual excellent morning weather discussion, but there is serious flooding ongoing to our northwest this morning.
From the NWS Memphis: “This is turning into a life threatening situation. We went with emergency wording on the last FFW”
…FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SHELBY…DESOTO AND TUNICA COUNTIES…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS EXTENDED THE
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI…
NORTHERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI…
SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE…
* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SHELBY…DESOTO AND TUNICA
* AT 709 AM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BARTLETT…
GERMANTOWN…MILLINGTON…HERNANDO…HORN LAKE…OLIVE BRANCH…
SOUTHAVEN…CORDOVA…MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK AND T O
FULLER STATE PARK.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR CORONEE LAKE…HORN LAKE…
HORSESHOE LAKE…LAKE MCKELLAR AND ROBCO LAKE.
.FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN THE NONCONNAH CREEK AND THE WOLF
RIVER. THE FLOOD CREST IS EXPECTED TO REACH 32.0 FEET BY 9 AM ON THE
NONCONNAH…AND 21.5 FEET ON THE WOLF RIVER BY NOON.
.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE…TURN AROUND…DONT DROWN.
.DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.
The above graphic shows the radar estimated rainfall amounts overnight and early this morning.
They are referring to heavy rain and flash flooding event that is ongoing this morning in eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee.
The image is on Winchester in Germantown.
Heavy rain began during the early morning hours in this area as a moist flow (2.1 inch precipitable water values) across an old stalled outflow boundary and an upper level disturbance has led to prodigious rainfall amounts from showers and storms that have been lined up like trains along a track and moving over the same areas for hours.
3-6 inches of rain has fallen across eastern Arkansas from Newport to Des Arc and Clarendon, with a band of 3-5 inches rains extending through the Memphis area.
And more heavy rain is pointed at the Memphis area.
The first warnings came just before 4 a.m. and now flash flood warnings cover an unbroken area from near Batesville AR to Holly Springs MS.
4:55…Quince and White Station area of East Memphis: “prob 4 to 6 inches of water covering the whole street. Flowing very rapidly. Never seen like this here” – A stalled car was reported with the river trapped in that area.
6:00…”Park and Ridgeway, Poplar eastbound before Kirby and Macon at Houston Levee at the Kroger entrance flooded. Multiple cars stranded in high water”
7:24…Here’s info from a tweet by the Memphis FD: ” Winchester/Tchulahoma. Multiple vehicles submerged in water w parties trapped”
7:42…4.02″ in 24 hours in CoCoRaHS gauge at 7:35am 3 miles N of Bartlett TN.
So needless to say, travel in parts of eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee is a problem this morning.
FOR US IN ALABAMA
This activity will spread eastward into Northwest Alabama later this morning as the upper level disturbance lifts northeastward. The heavy rains will continue and flooding will be possible across the rest of northern Mississippi into Northwest Alabama as the moist flow continue and the storms propagate southeastward.
So expect another round of rain and storms later today across North and Northeast Alabama for areas mainly along and north of US-278. Rain chances are high in places like Florence, Huntsville, Arab and Fort Payne.
South of there, showers and storms will be fewer in number.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN TODAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
Explosive thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to bring very large hail to the northern Plains again. A moderate risk has been posted for parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa. Places like Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Ames and Iowa City are under the gun for very large hail and the threat of a few tornadoes.
All of the state of California continues to suffer from severe drought conditions or worse, and little to no relief is expected anytime soon. In Texas, recent rains have helped conditions to improve somewhat, especially in the western portions of the state, but it still wasn’t enough to bust the drought. The exceptional drought conditions persist in Texas, as well as Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico and Nevada.
For Alabama, locations across the Tennessee Valley continue to be the driest areas. Abnormally dry conditions persist in Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Jackson, Marshall, and DeKalb counties. Last week’s analysis had 7.01% of the state suffering from these conditions. This week, 1.19% of the state has added back into this category, and the latest analysis shows 8.20% of the state suffering from abnormally dry conditions.
Last week, moderate drought conditions were impacting 0.54% of the state. This week, that number has remained the same. The moderate drought conditions are confined to the extreme northwestern corner of Alabama affecting parts of Lauderdale and Colbert counties. Hopefully the rain this week, and the scattered showers and storms in the forecast will help alleviate these conditions.
Yesterday at this time, we were talking about little bitty Tropical Storm Amanda. Today, we are talking about a category 4 beast of a hurricane. Amanda went through a rapid intensification cycle over the last 24 hours and is now a very powerful hurricane. She is likely to continue to intensify today, but thankfully, no land masses are in her immediate path.
…AMANDA BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 670 MI…1075 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…946 MB…27.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR ON
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH…220 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AMANDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR
TODAY…BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB…27.94 INCHES.
Little to no change in the drought conditions across much of the U.S. Terrible drought, categorized as exceptional, continues across the Southern Plains and along the West Coast. All of the state of California is suffering from severe drought conditions or worse, and little to no relief is expected anytime soon. In Texas, just over 25% of the state is experiencing exceptional drought conditions. However, there is some great news for the Lone Star State and the southern Plains. Over the next 5-7 days, several inches of rain are forecast to impact the drought stricken areas.
For Alabama, the rain last week helped improve conditions a bit. Locations across the Tennessee Valley continue to be the driest areas. Abnormally dry conditions persist in Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Jackson, and DeKalb counties. Last week’s analysis had 8.86% of the state suffering from these conditions. This week, 1.85% of the state has been removed from this category, as the latest analysis shows only 7.01% of the state suffering from abnormally dry conditions.
Also last week, moderate drought conditions were affecting 2.12% of the state. This week, moderate drought conditions are only impacting 0.54% of the state, and are confined to the extreme northwestern corner of Alabama, affecting parts of Lauderdale and Colbert counties.
With little to no rain in the forecast, we are likely to see abnormally dry conditions expand across the state by the time next week’s monitor is released.