ACTIVE NIGHT FOR NORTH ALABAMA: A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for roughly the northern quarter of Alabama through 8:00 p.m. A line of severe storms is moving through the Shoals as I write this around 2:45p CT, and as the storms continue moving through the Tennessee Valley they will be capable of producing strong/damaging winds.
MORE STORMS POSSIBLE: Alabama’s weather is rain-free at sunrise, but showers and storms will likely form later this afternoon and tonight. It won’t rain everywhere, but where storms form they will be potentially strong to severe. SPC has defined an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for the northwest corner of the state, including Florence and the Shoals.
THIS AFTERNOON: While North Alabama is enjoying rain cooler air with temperatures in the 70s, severe thunderstorms are moving through the southeast corner of the state with strong winds. Multiple counties there are under severe thunderstorm warnings… all of the storms should be in Georgia by 4p CT. Most of the state will be dry tonight with lows in the 60s and 70s.
MORE SUMMER STORMS: On the maps this morning we have a surface boundary (we don’t call them “cold fronts” this time of the year) lined up near I-20. North of the front, temperatures are in the 60s… but to the south it is very humid with 70s and low 80s just before daybreak. No rain on radar across Alabama, but we note strong storms over Arkansas, and those will ride along the boundary and move in here later this morning.
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AHEAD: Alabama is rain-free at sunrise, but another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is likely later today and tonight. SPC has defined an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for much of Northeast Alabama, for Birmingham and points north and east. A “slight risk” (level 2/5) extends down to Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, and Eufaula, and a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) covers much of the rest of South Alabama.
RADAR CHECK: Strong thunderstorms are pushing through West-Central Alabama at mid-afternoon… they are under severe limits at 3p CT but are producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and lots of lightning. Those storms will continue pushing into the southern half of the state over the next few hours.
RADAR CHECK: A nearly stationary band of rain and storms has developed early this morning from the Tennessee Valley down into parts of East Alabama. These storms are very efficient rain producers, and flash flood warnings have been issued for parts of Lauderdale, Limestone, Morgan, Cullman, Blount, and St. Clair counties during the pre-dawn hours.
An organized mass of storms is expected to form over Tennessee later today; this MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) will move into North Alabama with potential for strong winds and heavy rain. We also note there is a flash flood watch in effect for areas north of a line from Russellville to Birmingham to Heflin through tomorrow afternoon.
DOG DAY AFTERNOON: Hot and humid weather continues across Alabama this afternoon. Temperatures are in the 87-91 degree range over the northern half of the state, which is below average, to the mid 90s across South Alabama. Scattered showers and storms are forming in the muggy air this afternoon, and a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the northern quarter of the state until 9p CT.
RADAR CHECK: A persistent band of showers and thunderstorms is over the Tennessee Valley region of North Alabama early this morning, and a flash flood warning is in effect for parts of Limestone and Madison counties just before sunrise, where 3-5 inches of rain has fallen overnight.
RADAR CHECK: Showers and thunderstorms are most active over the western half of Alabama this afternoon… some spots are seeing heavy rain and gusty winds but all storms are below severe limits as of 3p CT. The storms will continue to work eastward through the evening hours, and fade late tonight. Away from the storms, temperatures are in the 88-93 degree range in most places this afternoon
CLASSIC MID-SUMMER WEATHER: Alabama’s weather will feature the classic summer mix of sun, heat, humidity, and storms through Sunday. Afternoon highs will be generally in the 89-94 degree range, and most (but not all) of the showers and storms will come from 2:00 until 9:00 p.m. The chance of any one spot seeing rain today and tomorrow is 50-60 percent, and 40-50 percent Sunday.
RADAR CHECK: You can see the MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) spinning on radar south of Eutaw at mid-afternoon; this feature contributed to excessive rain across parts of West Alabama and East Mississippi this morning. Based on radar estimates, rain amounts across Sumter County are in the 5-8 inch range since the pre-dawn hours. Serious flooding developed in places like York.
RADAR CHECK: Thunderstorms are developing early this morning over West Alabama in a zone from near Tuscaloosa down to Mobile… otherwise it is a very muggy summer morning with temperatures in the 70s. Expect a mix of sun and clouds today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and early tonight. Where storms form, they will be very efficient rain producers in this kind of airmass. The high today will be in the 87-92 range.
Our long time friend, mentor, and charter Weather Factory member, J.B. Elliott, passed away on May 11, 2015. Click HERE to read James' tribute.
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