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Early Afternoon Update

| 1:19 pm January 22, 2016

We are watching the rain transition to snow across North-Central Alabama this afternoon as the much colder air spills into the state. A band of rain/snow mix is now working towards the Interstate 65 corridor and the Birmingham Metro. Within this band, there a numerous reports of bursts of heavy snow, but nothing more than that and certainly no accumulations at this time.

1-22-2016 1-10-45 PM

Expanding the radar out of Central Alabama, there are additional areas of snow across Mississippi and Tennessee that could rotate through the state and continue to provide periods of snow and snow showers as we head into the evening and overnight hours, but these will be very light in nature as the deep moisture axis shifts east of the state

1-22-2016 1-12-10 PM

At this time, the weather service is going to maintain the Winter Weather Advisory until 6AM Saturday morning, but will re-evaluate later this afternoon. In addition to the Winter Weather Advisory, there is a Wind Advisory in effect for all of Central Alabama until midnight. With a tight pressure gradient, winds are quite blustery this afternoon and are sustained in the 15-25mph range, with gusts over 30mph. These gusty winds could bring down some tree limbs.

1-22-2016 1-02-20 PM

Looking at the latest traffic maps, we are not seeing any reports of impacts on travel this afternoon, as temperatures remain above the freezing mark. Roads are in decent shape this afternoon and that should remain the case through the evening hours. Late this evening, into tonight, and first thing Saturday, is when a few slick spots are expected.

1-22-2016 1-06-08 PM

Click image to enlarge.

Current temperatures are in the 30s for most locations in West Alabama, while 40s persist over East Alabama. We are going to continue to see falling temperatures this afternoon and evening as those blustery northwest winds advect that much colder air into the state. It looks like most of us will stay above freezing until the evening hours.

1-22-2016 1-01-11 PM

After about 8PM is when there could be a few icy spots as the temps go below freezing. The main area of concerns will of course be this bridges and overpasses. Of course we urge everyone to use some extra caution the next 24 hours, until overall weather conditions improve. Stay safe and enjoy the pretty snowflakes!

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Operation Snow Watch

| 11:18 am January 22, 2016

LATE NOTE:
All Jefferson County Schools will close at 1 p.m. today.

2016-01-22_11-17-42

RADAR UPDATE
Precipitation echoes are starting to pick up again in a band of snow that is rotating eastward across Northwest and West Central Alabama late this morning.

The heavier snow will be across the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama. Places like Moulton, Decatur and Hartselle will see some of the best snow.

This band will push eastward, reaching Tuscaloosa before 11 a.m. and Birmingham around noon – 1 p.m.

Here are current temperatures:

2016-01-22_11-06-35

The ground is still warm and snow will melt faster than it falls unless you get in a heavier snow shower.

As the low ramps up tonight and turns northeast, more moisture will wrap into the North and East Central Alabama. There will be some dustings to 1.5 inch accumulations, especiallly east of I-65.

One of the fun parts of any winter storm event is tracking the snow report. Here are some late ones:

…Dusting in Russellville. Roofs are white.
…Big fluffy flakes at Vernon in Lamar County.
…Snow starting to fall at Sulligent in Lamar County.
…Snowflakes at Aliceville in Pickens County.
…Saw a Twitter report of snowflakes at St. Vincent’s in Birmingham.

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A New Serving of Good News from the Alabama News Center

| 10:55 am January 22, 2016

110 Feature-6

In the midst of this bad weather, how about a dose of good news? Here is some from the past week from our friends at Alabama NewsCenter. Because of high traffic today, we will limit the great photos on this post. To see all the photos as well, click to this special page.

Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide found on the streets of Jerusalem

Is Nick Saban knocking on Bear Bryant’s door?

Jacksonville State’s John Grass recognized as FCS 2015 AFCA National Coach of the Year

Order on the court as SEC teams are finding success in a different sport

Yorozu breaks ground on $100 million auto supplier plant in Jasper

Southwest Alabama needs nearly 5,000 skilled workers, survey reveals

Worthington Industries eyes Alabama facility for $8.5 million investment, consolidation

Alabama-made Honda Ridgeline tackles pickup market high and low

Austal is cruising with a spike of shipbuilding activity in Mobile

Freedom Soap takes a pure path to being an Alabama Maker

Hope finds a home at Brother Bryan Mission in Alabama Bright Lights

Code.org, A+ College Ready and Alabama Department of Education aim to elevate computer science graduates

Familiar Alabama face Tommy Dewey joins CBS drama series ‘Code Black’ tonight

Helena’s Rebecca Luker returns to her role in Broadway’s ‘The Secret Garden’

Enjoy the best boat show, intrigue your inner artist, run for a reason in this edition of Can’t Miss Alabama

Birmingham honors Martin Luther King Jr.

Martin Luther King’s vision shared at Unity Breakfast

Alabama Power employees join others in remembering Martin Luther King

Southern Company subsidiary in Alabama awarded grant to lead advanced nuclear technology development

Renew Our Rivers enters its 17th year in Alabama

Alabama Power begins operating under new Martin Dam license today

Saw’s BBQ pork-stuffed tater is on the menu in 100 Dishes to Eat in Alabama Before You Die

Heavy hitters of Alabama commercial real estate to lead ACREcon 2016 panel discussion

Emerging trends: Alabama commercial real estate industry predictions for 2016

Alabama’s most improved housing markets during November

Cullman December homes selling at brisker pace

Dothan December home sales up 17 percent over 2014 numbers

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Mid-Morning Update

| 9:27 am January 22, 2016

Here is a mid-morning update.

The forecast remains unchanged:

2016-01-22_09-21-04

At this hour, light to moderate rain is pushing northeastward across North and Central Alabama. The surface low (1006mb) is just east of Birmingham. The rain is heaviest and most widespread north of the low in the US-278 corridor curving down into East Alabama round Anniston.

Another batch of moderate rain is pushing ENE across Perry, Dallas, Autauga, Montgomery and Elmore Counties.

Here is the radar with surface temperatures and snow reports.

2016-01-22_9-22-14

Lots of schools are dismissing early. Marion County will shut down at 11 a.m. Pickens County and Fort Payne Schools at 11:30. Cullman County at noon. Haleyville, Winston Co and Lamar Co at 11:30. Jasper City at 12:30. Check with your school system.

NORTH ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI
Temperatures are in the upper 40s and 50s southeast of I-59, with middle 40s east of I-65 over North Alabama. Readings have already fallen into the 30s over Northwest Alabama. It is 37 at Haleyville. It is already below freezing over northern Mississippi, with 32 at Batesville. There is 2 inches of snow on the ground at Oxford. There is 7 inches on the ground at Little Rock.

The heavier precipitation that produced this snowfall has diminished considerably in the past two hours.

While the snow over northern Mississippi has tapered off, snow is wrapping around the low back over western Tennessee and some of this will work its way into northern Mississippi and Northwest Alabama this afternoon.

Rain should change to light snow at Muscle Shoals and down through Franklin and Marion and Lamar Counties within the hour. Sleet and snow is already being reported in northern Lauderdale County. This part of Northwest Alabama could see up to 2 inches of snow.

The band of snow should reach Tuscaloosa by noon-12:30 and Jasper around 1 p.m.

It should reach the Birmingham and Cullman areas around 2 p.m. as a rain/snow mix and changeover to all snow. Temperatures should still be above freezing in the Birmingham area though and travel problems will be limited.

As for accumulations further south in places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Anniston, it will take heavier snow bands to produce those. Snow was falling at Starkville but having a hard time sticking because it was light in nature and the ground is warm. This will be the story until temperatures come down and you get some heavier areas of snow.

That should happen this evening in areas east of I-65 as the big winter storm ramps up for the East Coast. Snow should wrap back down into areas east of I-65 after 6 p.m. and intensify. Areas north of I-20 and east of I-65

The NWS maintains a winter weather advisory for Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, Shelby, Talladega, Clay and Randolph Counties and points north across the state. 1/4 to 1.5 inches of snow is expected in some locations in the advisory area, depending on where the snow bands fall.

QUICK ROUND UP AROUND THE REGION

…Nice snow in Nashville already. 3.5 inches reported in Belle Meade. 5 inches in East Nashville, and still snowing.

…Snow has been light in the Memphis area. 1 inch reported in Millington with 2-3 inches in Atoka.

…Not much over northern Mississippi, just that 2 inch report from Oxford .

…Already 6 inches this morning near Roanoke and Blacksburg in Virginia.

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Rain Changing To Light Snow Today

| 6:32 am January 22, 2016

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: No changes in the “winter weather advisory” from the National Weather Service offices in Birmingham and Huntsville; it is in effect basically for areas north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Calera to Roanoke. Remember, for the Birmingham NWS office the criteria for an advisory is snow 1/4″ to 2″.

RIGHT NOW: Showers, and even a few thunderstorms, continue over Alabama at daybreak…

Screen Shot 2016-01-22 at 6.16.54 AM

Temperatures are generally in the low 50s, and as we have discussed in recent days, they will go the wrong way today. We fall through the 40s, and wind up in the 30s this afternoon as cold air rushes into the state. Dynamic cooling from the very deep upper trough will also be a factor.

RAIN TO SNOW: We have adjusted the timing a bit on the projected change from rain to light snow based on radar trends; snow should begin to fall up in the Shoals area of far Northwest Alabama around 8:00 a.m. The rain/snow line will work eastward during the day as temperatures fall.

snow

IMPORTANT NOTES….

*Temperatures are not expected to drop below freezing until tonight. Initially during the day, roads will be just wet with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The possible exception is far Northwest Alabama, where icy travel could begin around Muscle Shoals by afternoon. Slick spots are possible on roads tonight, especially after 9:00 (for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden).

*Slick spots/icy patches will remain possible through about mid-morning tomorrow; conditions will improve by midday tomorrow as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s.

*Much of the snow will come in the form of convective showers, much like rain showers on summer afternoons. This means the distribution will not be even, and snow amounts will vary greatly. Some will get nothing, others will see the ground go white very quickly. No way of resolving where the heavier snow showers develop. For most of North/Central Alabama, some will see 1 inch, others will see nothing, and most will see something in between.

*As the cold core upper trough swings through here late today and tonight, expect a surprise or two; these things are always interesting and can do things you don’t expect.

NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA: A major winter storm will unfold, with a blizzard warning up for the Washington/Baltimore area…

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Travel will become difficult, and in many areas impossible, in the heavier snow zones later today and tonight.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Tomorrow will be breezy and cold with a few lingering morning snow flurries; we won’t get of of the 30s. Sunday morning will be cold with a low in the lower 20s, but we rise to near 50 degrees by afternoon with a good supply of sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry and warmer… some places could reach 60 degrees. Then, showers are possible Tuesday thanks to a passing cold front, followed by colder air Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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We will have frequent updates through the day on the blog… stay tuned!

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Quick Look

| 5:37 am January 22, 2016

Here is a quick look at the updated thinking on Alabama’s weather today. Temperatures won’t go below freezing until tonight, most likely after 9 p.m. But, we have adjusted the timing on the change from rain to light snow.

The light snow will be in the form of snow showers, meaning distribution will not be very even; some will get nothing, but in other places the ground will become white. For most of North/Central Alabama, amounts will be under 1″. A full blog discussion and Weather Xtreme video will be posted shortly.

snow

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Watch County Notification

| 1:50 am January 22, 2016

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.
WWUS64 KBMX 220749
WCNBMX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
149 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

ALC109-220900-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160122T0900Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 7 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS CANCELS 1 COUNTY

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

PIKE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…TROY.

$$

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Watch County Notification

| 11:59 pm January 21, 2016

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.
WWUS64 KBMX 220558
WCNBMX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

ALC001-085-101-220700-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160122T0900Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 7 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS CANCELS 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA

AUTAUGA LOWNDES MONTGOMERY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…FORT DEPOSIT…LOWNDESBORO…
MONTGOMERY AND PRATTVILLE.

$$

ALC109-220900-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160122T0900Z/

TORNADO WATCH 7 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

PIKE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…TROY.

$$

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Watch County Notification

| 10:55 pm January 21, 2016

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.
WWUS64 KBMX 220454
WCNBMX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1054 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

ALC047-220600-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160122T0900Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 7 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS CANCELS 1 COUNTY

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA

DALLAS

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…SELMA.

$$

ALC001-085-101-109-220900-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160122T0900Z/

TORNADO WATCH 7 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA

AUTAUGA LOWNDES MONTGOMERY

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

PIKE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…FORT DEPOSIT…LOWNDESBORO…
MONTGOMERY…PRATTVILLE AND TROY.

$$

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Late Night Look at Storm Impacts

| 10:36 pm January 21, 2016

Here is the official NWS forecast for total snowfall from the National Digital Forecast Database.

Click image to  enlarge

Click image to enlarge

The Blue Ridge Parkway looks like it will be Ground Zero for this winter storm with 25-30 inches of snow between now and Sunday. A blizzard warning is in effect for the Blue Ridge.

A secondary maximum will be over the Gauley Mountains of West Virginia where the forecast is for 30 inches of snow in Pocahontas County.

Let’s go area by area and see the main impacts:

BOSTON
Almost no snow. It will be windy though. Gale watches are in effect in the harbors along the Connecticut and Rhode Island coasts.

NEW YORK CITY
Right on the borderline, as always seems to be the case. There is considerable disagreement among the models. A blizzard watch has been issued for much of eastern Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, much of New Jersey, the NYC area and Long Island. Official snow forecast is 9 inches. Winds could gust to 45 mph. A coastal flood watch is in effect Saturday night.

PHILADELPHIA
15 inches of snow expected. Blizzard watch in effect. Snow most of the day on Saturday.

WASHINGTON DC
Blizzard warning in effect. Snow accumulations of more than two feet, with snow developing Friday morning and continuing through Saturday night. Winds could gust to 50 mph. Could be the second biggest snowfall in D.C. history.

CHARLOTTE
Could be in for a crippling ice storm with sleet and freezing rain through much of the day Friday. 0.4 inches of ice accretion and 1-2 inches of sleet by Friday night with another .1 inch of ice. Half an inch of ice can cause huge problems.

KENTUCKY
Will be hard hit with 8-12 inches of snow across a wide area. Over 6 inches in Louisville and nearly 11 inches in Lexington. Over a foot of snow in eastern Kentucky. Winter storm warnings are in effect.

TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI
Heaviest snow in western Tennessee, with nearly six inches possible in Memphis and 7 inches in Jackson TN. 3-8 inches across the entire state of Tennessee. Up to five inches over northwestern Mississippi south of Memphis. 1-5 inches of snow across the northern third of Mississippi.

ALABAMA
1/2-3 inches of snow, with the heaviest amounts over Northwest Alabama. Winter weather advisories are in effect.

GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
1-3 inches across northern Georgia and upstate South Carolina, except for higher amounts in the mountains of northern Georgia and the foothills of South Carolina.

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Tornado Watch Trimmed; Wintry Mix in Arkansas

| 9:51 pm January 21, 2016
GFS snowfall forecast valld for Saturday noon.

GFS snowfall forecast valld for Saturday noon.

Perry, Hale and Marengo counties have been removed from the tornado watch.

Lots of rain but no strong storms over the northern two thirds of Alabama this evening.

No warnings in effect anywhere in the country right now.

The watch remains in effect until 3 a.m. for the following counties are still in the watch: Autauga, Dallas, Lowndes, Montgomery and Pike

Moderate rain continues across much of Central Alabama. There is some embedded thunder and lightning, especially over Walker, Fayette, Tuscaloosa and Pickens Counties. The rainfall is being enhanced by a strong southerly low level jet on the front side of the developing mid-level low centered over the Arkansas/Louisiana border. Rainfall rates are generally less than one half inch per hour, but the heavier cells are between one half and one inch. Local flooding could be a problem.

Mixed wintry precipitation is occurring at this hour over Arkansas and northern Louisiana, a sign of things to come. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is falling in these areas. Snow rates could increase as colder air moves in at the surface and colder air aloft even leads to some thundersnow. It is 33F with light freezing rain in Little Rock.

We are beginning to pore through model data from the evening runs tonight. So far, the 4km NAM is in and it looks pretty much the same, except maybe a little slower. It puts more emphasis on convective snow showers on Saturday for widely scattered pockets of 1-2 inch snowfall amounts.

The GFS is out to 42 hours right now and it still shows snow starting during the day. It shows 1/2-1 inch in some areas by midnight tomorrow night.

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Watch County Notification

| 8:41 pm January 21, 2016

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.
WWUS64 KBMX 220240
WCNBMX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
840 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

ALC063-119-220345-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160122T0900Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 7 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS CANCELS 2 COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA

GREENE SUMTER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…EUTAW…LIVINGSTON AND YORK.

$$

ALC001-047-065-085-091-101-105-109-220900-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160122T0900Z/

TORNADO WATCH 7 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA

AUTAUGA DALLAS LOWNDES
MONTGOMERY PERRY

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

PIKE

IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA

HALE MARENGO

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…DEMOPOLIS…FORT DEPOSIT…
GREENSBORO…LINDEN…LOWNDESBORO…MARION…MONTGOMERY…
MOUNDVILLE…PRATTVILLE…SELMA…TROY AND UNIONTOWN.

$$

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