Find us on Google+

Unsettled April Weather Continues

| 3:44 pm April 16, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WET DAY: Showers and storms returned to North and Central Alabama today, aided by a wedge front that pushed into Alabama from the east. Some flooding issues have been reported in a few spots; the image below was taken along Alabama 119 in Shelby County between US 280 and US 31 this afternoon (photo from @sparker2374)

sparker2374_2015-Apr-16

Flooding has also been reported in parts of downtown Birmingham.

Radar continues to show rain and storms over much of North/Central Alabama…

Screen Shot 2015-04-16 at 3.36.17 PM

As expected, it is much cooler over East Alabama with many places dropping into the cool 50s this afternoon.

TOMORROW: Don’t think it will be as wet as today. The wedge front dissipates, and showers become more widely scattered; a decent part of the day should be dry with a high in the 70s. The sun might even peek out at times.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: More rain. The high resolution NAM shows rain moving into West Alabama at midday Saturday, becoming widespread during the afternoon and into Saturday night. Sunday will be wet at times as well with occasional showers and thunderstorms. With a large scale upper trough approaching, we will need to monitor weather conditions for severe weather potential, but for now it looks like instability values will be pretty marginal, and the overall risk looks rather low. Rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely over the weekend, and some flooding issues can’t be totally ruled out (like today). Highs over the weekend will be in the 70s.

A-DAY GAMES: Unfortunately it looks like rain will be likely for the Alabama spring game Saturday afternoon (2:00p CT kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. Auburn’s game (1:00 CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium will begin rain-free, but it turns wet by the second half. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s at both venues. Take the rain gear.

NEXT WEEK: We will continue to mention the chance of a few stray showers Monday, but drier air finally returns Tuesday and Wednesday with a good supply of sunshine both days along with lower humidity values. Temperatures should drop into the 40s early Wednesday. Then, later in the week, showers and storms will return. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: More clouds than sun each day through the weekend from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, with occasional showers and thunderstorms. A flash flood watch remains in effect for Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, and Pensacola Beach. Highs will be in the 70s, and the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 73 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time visiting with the kids at Hokes Bluff Middle School today… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Comments

Rain and Storms Continue to Develop

| 2:23 pm April 16, 2015
Click image to enlarge.

Click image to enlarge.

Heavy rain continues to develop in the I-20 corridor at this hour, with moderate to heavy rain all the way from the Pell City area westward into Jefferson and Shelby Counties they through Tuscaloosa and on into Pickens and Sumter Counties.

The heaviest accumulations according to radar estimates are over:

…southwestern Winston County
…Central Fayette County
…Central Tuscaloosa County around the City of Tuscaloosa and Holt
…over northeastern Tuscaloosa County into Southwestern Jefferson County

Some areas have picked up between 2-3 inches of rainfall.

An areal flood warning is in effect for southern Cullman County.

There is a good bit of embedded thunder involved as well, but the storms are not strong.

Rain and storms will continue to develop thanks to a backdoor cold front that has pushed into the area and uplift over the boundary of a moist southwesterly flow aloft as well as a passing upper level wind max that is helping increase upward motion.

Comments

Flooding Concerns Increasing

| 11:01 am April 16, 2015

Rain and thunderstorms have increased this morning over the southwestern half of the area, generally west of I-65 and south of US-280.

Rainfall has been especially heavy over the northern half of the City of Tuscaloosa over the past hour or so, with radar estimates indicating well over two inches of rain this morning. The NWS Birmingham has issued a flood advisory for much of Tuscaloosa County.

Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge

The heaviest activity now extends from southwestern Cullman across Walker, western Jefferson, Tuscaloosa, western Bibb, Pickens and Greene Counties.

Recent rains have set the stage for grounds to become quickly saturated and heavy rainfall will be running off. There will be minor flooding in urban areas and quick rises on small streams. If prolonged heavy rains fall, more serious flooding is possible.

Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge

The rain and storms are coming from a two pronged attack this morning. At the surface, we find a back door cold front at the leading edge of an easterly wedge nosing in from Georgia. This front is acting as a focusing mechanism for convection. Above the surface, winds are out of the southwest, providing a stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that is riding up and over the wedge, providing for efficient precipitation making. Throw in an approaching wind max at the jetstream level that will provide additional lift as we go through the afternoon and we have the makings of a major rainy day for many.

Instability values to the west or ahead of the front are low to moderate, hence there is a good bit of lightning and thunder. Fortunately however, there is very low shear and not much chance for the storms to be severe. There will be loud booming thunder though in ddition to the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding.

Comments

A Few Passing Shower/Storms

| 6:37 am April 16, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: We have a few loud thunderstorms passing through North Alabama early this morning… stronger storms feature lots of lightning and heavy rain.

Screen Shot 2015-04-16 at 6.22.09 AM

We will maintain the chance of showers and thunderstorms through tonight. It won’t rain all day, but the rain could come at any time. Organized severe storms are not expected, and the flash flood threat is limited to far Southwest Alabama, where a flash flood watch remains in effect for Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia, and Washington Counties.

Today will be cooler over East Alabama due to the CAD (cold air damming) effect; some communities near the Georgia line will see a high only in the low 60s, but West Alabama will be in the 76-80 degree range this afternoon. The sun could peek out at times, but the sky today will be mostly cloudy.

TOMORROW: It looks like a pretty decent part of the day will be dry; much like yesterday. Showers will be widely spaced, and we should see a few intervals of sunshine. The high tomorrow afternoon will be in the mid to upper 70s.

THE WEEKEND: A big upper trough will be lifting out of the western U.S., and rain will increase again statewide. For now it looks like the main window for organized showers and storms will come from about 4:00 p.m. Saturday through 6:00 p.m. Sunday. It won’t rain during this entire 26 hour block, but occasional showers and storms are likely. With better dynamic forcing due to the upper trough, we will have to watch for potential for strong to severe storms during this time, but for now instability values look pretty low and the risk seems somewhat marginal. SPC does not have any part of North or Central Alabama in a severe weather risk at this point.

Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely over the weekend; seems like it will be spread out enough for no serious flooding issues around here. Highs will be in the 70s both days.

SPRING FOOTBALL: Alabama’s annual “A Day” spring football game kicks off Saturday at 2:00 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, and the “A Day” game at Auburn’s Jordan Hare Stadium kicks off at 1:00. Data from the high resolution NAM model suggests the rain could very well hold off until late in the game at Tuscaloosa, with no rain for the game in Auburn. Understand this could change, however, as this pattern makes for a challenging forecast. The sky will be cloudy at both venues with temperatures in the 70s.

sat_1p_nam

NEXT WEEK: A few stray showers are possible Monday, but Tuesday and Wednesday look dry with a good supply of sunshine both days, along with lower humidity and cooler nights. Then, showers and storms return Thursday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Only a limited amount of sunshine (2 hours or less) each day along the coast (Panama City west to Gulf Shores) through Sunday with occasional showers and thunderstorms likely. A flash flood watch is in effect for the Alabama Gulf Coast, and the western tip of the Florida Panhandle including Pensacola Beach. Highs will be in the 70s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program this morning at Hokes Bluff Middle School… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Comments

Showers A No-Show So Far Today

| 3:32 pm April 15, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: For a change we have nothing showing on radar as of 3:00 this afternoon; seems like nobody is complaining about the lack of showers so far. We have seen patches of blue sky, and temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s in most places. Dry air in the mid levels is preventing shower formation, but we will need to maintain at least the chance of widely scattered showers and storms through tonight.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Cooler air slips into the eastern half of the state tomorrow thanks to the CAD (cold air damming) effect… places like Cedar Bluff, Heflin, and Wedowee could see a high only in the low 60s, while communities to the west around the Mississippi border might be close to 80 degrees. The sky will remain mostly cloudy, and a few passing showers are likely, but it won’t rain all day.

We will mention scattered showers or storms Friday, but a decent part of the day could very well be dry, much like today, with the better dynamic forcing west of the state. The high Friday will be in the 70s with only a limited amount of sun.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday looks wet, as a signifiant upper trough lifts out of the Rockies, and moist air stays in place. We will forecast periods of rain, and possibly a thunderstorm with a high in the 75-78 degree range. It won’t rain all day Saturday, but there is a good chance it will rain several times during the day.

We will need to maintain the chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday as the trough axis moves over the state; we could see a few strong storms Sunday afternoon with potential for small hail due to the colder air aloft, but for now a really significant severe weather threat doesn’t seem likely. The high Sunday afternoon will be in the upper 70s for most.

NEXT WEEK: Just an outside risk of a stray shower or two Monday, especially over East Alabama, and we finally get into some nice, dry, continental air Tuesday and Wednesday with a good supply of sunshine both days. Early morning temperatures should reach the 40s early Tuesday and Wednesday morning. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

KBHM_2015041506_min_max_16

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting the kindergarten kids at Hueytown Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Comments

Scattered Showers/Storms Today

| 6:03 am April 15, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

AT DAYBREAK: Scattered showers are in progress early this morning primarily east of I-65, but clouds cover the entire state with temperatures in the 60s.

Screen Shot 2015-04-15 at 5.54.45 AM

The blanket of moist air goes nowhere, but the dynamic forcing is somewhat limited today, meaning showers and storms are certainly possible, but they will be more scattered in nature, and mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. The chance of any one spot getting wet today is in the 50 percent category, and a few strong storms could pop up. We note SPC has a pretty good part of North and West Alabama in a “marginal” severe weather risk… if temperatures can rise into the 77-80 degree range this afternoon the stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. But, a decent part of today will be dry if you need to get something done outdoors.

day1otlk_1200

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Occasional showers and storms remain likely both days. Tomorrow will be cooler over East Alabama thanks to a cold air damming (CAD) setup; communities east of Birmingham won’t get out of the 60s. We stress the rain won’t be continuous, and you might see a brief glimpse of the sun at times. And, no threat of severe weather or tornadoes. Just a wet, unsettled weather pattern.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: It would be nice to forecast a sunny pair of days, but that won’t happen as the moist air hangs over Alabama. Saturday and Sunday will be mostly cloudy with a few passing showers and thunderstorms both days. As an upper trough approaches, we could see a few strong storms Sunday with potential for hail and gusty winds, but the overall severe weather threat looks limited.

Impossible to give you specific start/stop times of the rain in a pattern like this for any one given location, but just understand the rain could come at any hour of the day or night. Highs over the weekend will remain in the 70s.

Additional rain amounts of 2 to 3 inches are likely between now and Sunday, but flash flooding is not expected across the northern half of the state. We do note that Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia, and Washington counties in far Southwest Alabama remain under a flash flood watch today.

NEXT WEEK: Global models are trending slower with the progression of the upper trough, and it looks like we will need to hang on to a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday, but finally we get into a nice dry continental airmass Tuesday and Wednesday with a good supply of sunshine both days along with cooler mornings and lower humidity. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

KBHM_2015041500_min_max_16

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program today at Hueytown Elementary School… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Comments