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Continued Warm with Isolated Showers

| September 11, 2016 @ 6:40 am

Central Alabama waking up to a few clouds this morning, but the radar is clear. A line of storms with some intense lightning moved into the northern sections of Alabama last night ahead of the cold front which was draped across Central Alabama this morning. Tennessee Valley locations saw a little rainfall with a third of an inch or less, but Central Alabama spots remained dry as the storms dissipated. There is a small chance for showers today in Central Alabama while there are slightly better chances for showers across South Alabama. Highs will drop back a little into the upper 80s with the presence of some extra clouds.

We’re still watching three areas of unsettled weather in the tropics. Feature one is an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and was moving slowly northwestward. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has become better defined, but the associated thunderstorms had not become any better organized in the past few hours. Conditions are still favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next day or two while this disturbance moves toward the northwest over the central Atlantic. Feature two is a weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico which remained devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph across the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Feature three is an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Hispaniola that remained disorganized. There are no signs of a surface circulation, and conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph.

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Headed for the beach? Mostly sunny days and fair nights are expected with only isolated storms heading into the week ahead. Highs will be in the upper 80s along the immediate coast, with lower 90s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was a very warm 85 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

The trough moving through the 500 millibar flow the morning will move quickly to New England later today. So support for the front will wane and the front is expected to wash out today and Monday. Unfortunately, even with a weak front present, the really drier air remained well north of Alabama, so we are not expecting to see any real air mass change. Clouds today will help hold our highs down a bit, but the should recover in the week ahead moving back into the lower 90s.

It is going to remain warm as an upper level ridge builds across the Southeast US into the end of the week. The GFS was weaker with the strength of the ridge in the latest run than we saw yesterday so we probably won’t see temperatures higher than the lower 90s. Moisture remains in place, so it’s going to be hard not to mention the possibility of an isolated shower or storm most days in the week ahead. These should be just diurnal showers driven by the heat of the day since there is really no significant weather feature to produce any real lift.

Showers may become more numerous toward the end of the week as the surface high shifts east and brings our surface flow around to the south. The increased moisture along with an approaching cold front on Sunday could bring up our chances for rain, and we really need some rain. The drought index continued to climb for the northern two-thirds of Alabama.

Looking out into voodoo country, the pattern has it’s ups and downs but no real sign of a significant cold front yet.

The NWA 2016 Conference gets underway today in Norfolk, VA. WeatherFest yesterday was a huge success with over 2,500 people coming through the doors. I had a great time handling the duties for the speaker session with some great speakers like Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Bill Read, and Tony Rice. I expect James Spann to have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Storms Rolling Through North Alabama

| September 10, 2016 @ 7:46 pm

A line of storms ahead of a frontal boundary is tracking southeast through Northwest Alabama. These storms are are heading towards the Birmingham Metro. Before these storms get to the Metro area, they are going to be tracking through cities such as Jasper, Cullman, Fayette, and Vernon.

Storms are producing a lot of lightning, intense rainfall, and gusty winds, but none of these storms are severe, and severe weather is not expected tonight. They are also knocking temperatures down from the mid and upper 80s, into the 70s. These storms are expected to maintain their intensity for the next few hours but should begin to wind down by about 10PM and become more isolated as the better dynamics are north of Alabama, and daytime heating is loss.

These storms are expected to at least make it to the Interstate 20 corridor before they begin to dissipate.

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Quick Evening Radar Check

| September 10, 2016 @ 5:51 pm

Watching a line of showers and storms tracking into Northwest Alabama this evening. None of these storms are severe, but these storms are producing a lot of lightning, gusty winds, and intense rainfall.

They are tracking southeast and will be impacting some of our northwestern communities, but with the loss of daytime heating after sunset, they should begin to slowly wind down, and we are not expecting them to make it much farther southeast than the Interstate 59 corridor this evening.

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Mainly Sunny and Hot Saturday Afternoon

| September 10, 2016 @ 1:13 pm

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Plenty of sun today and temperature have responded; after starting the day off in the 60s and 70s, we are seeing lower and mid 90s for many locations.

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No rain showing up early this afternoon in Central Alabama, but we are seeing a few very light and isolated showers trying to develop over East Mississippi. We are not expecting much in the way of shower/storm activity until the front gets closer. Currently, early this afternoon, the front stretches from northern Michigan, down into Central Arkansas, and Deep South Texas.

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Not much shower/storm activity along the front currently, but that is expected to change as the SPC is forecasting severe weather along this boundary later today, especially over the Ohio Valley. We do note, the “marginal risk” extends into the extreme northern part of Alabama, but for the most part severe weather is just not expected in Alabama due to the lack of shear.

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TONIGHT: Increasing clouds are expected and we are going to see a few showers/storms in Alabama as the front sinks towards the southeast, but nothing too widespread is expected.

SUNDAY: The front stalls across Central Alabama as the better dynamics shift towards the Northeast U.S. We are going to see a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow, and we will mention the chance of a few scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms, but once again, these are expected to be few and far between. Highs tomorrow in Central Alabama should be in the upper 80s, while mid 90s are expected across South Alabama.

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Warm; Isolated Showers Sunday

| September 10, 2016 @ 6:19 am

Starting the day off with mostly clear skies and temperatures generally in the 60s. We should see a mostly sunny day as we watch a weakening cold front approach the area from the northwest. Highs will be warm once again as highs reach the lower 90s.

Looking at college football weather, Alabama hosts Western Kentucky this afternoon at Bryant-Denny Stadium for the 2016 home opener with a kickoff at 2:30 pm CDT. The sky will be mainly sunny with 92 degrees at kickoff dropping back into the upper 80s by the end of the game. Auburn will host Arkansas State at Jordan Hare Stadium this evening with a 6:30 pm CDT kickoff. The sky will be fair with temperatures falling from 86 degrees at kickoff into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter.

Weather at the beach looks fairly nice with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated storms on the coast through the weekend. There could be a passing storm, but overall fairly dry conditions. Highs will be in the upper 80s along the immediate coast with low 90s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was a warm 84.8 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

SPC has outlooked an area of slight risk for severe weather along and just ahead of the front from Central Kentucky northeast into the eastern Great Lakes area. No slight risk areas are forecast for Days 2 and 3.

Tropics are once again active with three areas under the watchful eye of hurricane forecasters. The first one in the Central Atlantic appears to have the best chance to develop, and it is forecast to recurve and remain in the Central Atlantic. The second area is just north of Puerto Rico and should continue northwesterly with little likelihood for development. The third area is in the Florida Straits and will be moving into the Gulf. Upper level winds remain unfavorable for this system to do much as it traverses the Gulf on a course toward extreme South Texas.

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Because I’m i the eastern time zone, I’m using the 00Z GFS run this morning for the discussion. The upper trough approaching the eastern US today will zip across the Great Lakes tonight and be located over New England on Sunday afternoon. The cold front will drag into the Southeast US and weaken or wash out on Sunday. The presence of the frontal boundary a potential for an isolated storm or two.

The front washes out late Sunday and into Monday leaving a small chance for an isolated storm or two. We won’t see a big change in our highs they remain around 90.

The ridge builds back into the Southeast US on Tuesday and becomes the main player in our weather pattern through the end of the week. The GFS is suggesting the ridge could be the strongest on Thursday and Friday with the potential for highs to be in the 93 to 95 range as the heat sticks with us.

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A strong trough coming out of the Rockies on Saturday will bring the approach of another cold front. Moisture also increases as the surface flow comes around to the south. Additional clouds along with a bit better chance for showers will help to keep highs in the upper 80s.

With the use of the 00Z GFS, I don’t have much to look at into voodoo country.

I’m in Norfolk, VA, this morning getting ready to work as a volunteer at the WeatherFest event that is a part of the National Weather Associations annual weather conference. We’re featuring meteorology at the Nauticus today. The free event is expected to draw over 3,000 people. I will have the next Weather Xtreme Video on Sunday morning, but it may not get posted until a little bit later in the morning.

-Brian-

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A Few Weekend Showers

| September 9, 2016 @ 3:23 pm

WE NEED RAIN: Today is the 8th consecutive day with no rain for much of North and Central Alabama; the sky is mostly sunny and temperatures are in the low 90s. Dewpoints remain low, and humidity values are mostly in the 30 percent range. The sky will stay clear tonight.

THE WEEKEND: A surface front will enter North Alabama tomorrow night; we will mention the chance of a few widely scattered showers and storms ahead of this front, but it won’t be a very beneficial rain event. Best coverage of showers will come across the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama tomorrow evening, and the showers will fade as they move to the south. For places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden, the chance of any one spot getting wet is only about one in eight, mostly between 5 and 10 p.m. Otherwise, tomorrow will be a partly sunny day with a high at or just over 90 degrees.

Drier air moves into North Alabama Sunday; the day will be pleasant with a good supply of sunshine, lower humidity, and a high in the mid to upper 80s. Any scattered showers Sunday will be over the southern half of the state, and even there widespread rain isn’t likely.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: High school games played tonight under Friday night lights across Alabama will be rain-free with a clear sky; temperatures will fall from the mid 80s at kickoff into the 70s by the final whistle.

Alabama hosts Western Kentucky Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium for the 2016 home opener (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly sunny with 92 degrees at kickoff… dropping back into the upper 80s by the end of the game. We will introduce an outside risk of a brief shower during the second half of the game just in case anything pops up ahead of the surface front to the north.

Auburn will host Arkansas State at Jordan Hare Stadium Saturday evening (6:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 86 degrees at kickoff into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: Monday looks dry for the northern half of the state, with scattered showers possible over the southern counties. The stalled surface front will wash out Tuesday, and any showers Tuesday through Thursday will be few and far between. Highs will be in the 87-91 degree range most days, with lows in the 60s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered storms on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through most of next week; highs in the upper 80s along the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: We are watching three waves across the Atlantic basin…

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Invest 94L is in the Central Atlantic around 40W; that one will turn northward and recurve; no threat to land.

Invest 93L is north of the Leeward Islands; it will move generally in the direction of the South Atlantic coast of the U.S… but it remains to be seen if it can develop. Odds are high this won’t be a Gulf of Mexico worry.

Invest 92L is the newest system on the board, and is near the Florida Keys. This will drift westward into the Gulf of Mexico, but conditions don’t favor development. Get the details and graphics on all three on the Weather Xtreme video.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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I had a great time today visiting with the 6th graders at Childersburg Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. Monday… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

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A Festive Collection of Stories from the Alabama News Center

| September 9, 2016 @ 1:04 pm

It’s Festival Time across Alabama and some great events headline this week’s collection of Good News from the Alabama News Center!

Football Preview:  Crimson Tide takes on the Hilltoppers as Auburn hosts Malzahn’s former team

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Art, music and festivals brighten up this Can’t Miss Alabama weekend

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St. George Middle Eastern Food Festival Kicks Off in Birmingham

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Artwalk keys downtown Birmingham revitalization

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Soul food at Larkin’s Restaurant and Deli makes list of 100 place to Eat in Alabama Before You Die

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Alabama auto industry adds jobs, investment in communities big and small

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Mercedes, Infiniti owners most likely to let car do driving

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Alabama-made Atlas V rockets to lift NASA to asteroid, Mars

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Southern APSO members boost spirits, strength of Montgomery Cancer Center Patients

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UAB and local businesses honor a late, inspiring wheelchair user

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Birmingham’s Southside skyline set for game-changing high-rise

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Pizitz building ready to shape Birmingham’s future as it did the city’s past

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UAB bonds to Birmingham with new ‘Together We Are Greater’ campaign

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Gateway Grants help Alabama communities make grand first impression

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Economic development projects in south Alabama get $5 million boost

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Alabama firms seek foothold with Latin America trade mission

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College football coaches like Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney who snare big wins reap CEO-level pay

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Rick Bragg, four other longtime media professionals to receive Auburn Journalism Honors awards

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Apple releases iPhone 7 in bid to reignite sales growth

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Generation Z will out-earn and out-work the rest of us

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Overscheduling activities can cause burnout for children and parents

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Bryan Stevenson: Finding hope in the middle of brokenness

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Investors snapping up multifamily properties in Alabama

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Alabama self-storage properties catching the eyes of real estate investors

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A Few Weekend Showers Possible

| September 9, 2016 @ 6:22 am

DAY EIGHT: Today will be the 8th consecutive day without measurable rain for much of North and Central Alabama. With an upper ridge overhead and dry air at the surface, we expect a good supply of sunshine today with a high in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Humidity values will stay rather low, dropping into the 20/30 percent range during the peak of the heat later today.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A surface front will drift down into North Alabama tomorrow night. The daytime hours tomorrow should be mostly dry with a partly sunny sky, but we will introduce the risk of widely scattered showers after 3:00 p.m. in case there is a little activity ahead of the main front. But, the best chance of a shower will come from about 6:00 p.m. until 2:00 a.m., and mainly over the northern third of the state, north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden). There might be a little thunder in spots, but no severe weather is expected, and rain should be generally light and spotty.

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We project a high tomorrow in the low 90s, about five degrees above average for September 10.

Then, on Sunday, the front will drift down toward U.S. 80 (Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika). Best chance of scattered showers Sunday afternoon will be over the southern half of the state… a drier airmass slips into North Alabama where the weather should be pretty pleasant with ample sunshine, lower humidity, and cooler temperatures.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: High school games played tonight under Friday night lights across Alabama will be rain-free with a clear sky; temperatures will fall from the mid 80s at kickoff into the 70s by the final whistle.

Alabama hosts Western Kentucky Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium for the 2016 home opener (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly sunny with 92 degrees at kickoff… dropping back into the upper 80s by the end of the game. We will introduce the risk of a brief shower during the second half of the game just in case anything pops up ahead of the surface front to the north.

Auburn will host Arkansas State at Jordan Hare Stadium Saturday evening (6:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 86 degrees at kickoff into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: The front will drift northward and slowly dissipate; we will mention some risk of widely scattered showers Monday and Tuesday, but only a small risk of a shower over the latter half of the week as the upper ridge rebuilds. Still no sign of any widespread, beneficial rain event over the next seven days. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered storms on the coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach through early next week. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: One wave is near the northern Leeward Islands this morning, another is father east in the Central Atlantic. Both are disorganized, and any development will be slow. And, if by chance anything forms both of them most likely will recurve and not impact the U.S.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program today at Childersburg Middle School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Weak Front Arrives Over The Weekend

| September 8, 2016 @ 2:41 pm

ANOTHER DRY DAY: This is the seventh consecutive day with no measurable rain for much of North/Central Alabama… temperatures are mostly in the low 90s with a good supply of sunshine. Birmingham reported 91 degrees at 2:00 with a dew point of 59, making the relative humidity 33 percent. The humidity at the Shelby County Airport dropped to 28 percent.

The weather won’t change much tomorrow; dry air stays in place. The sky will be mostly sunny with a high between 91 and 94 degrees.

THE WEEKEND: A weak surface front will drift down into North Alabama Saturday night. The day Saturday still looks dry with a high in the low 90s, but the high resolution NAM model suggests a broken band of showers will drift into North Alabama Saturday evening…

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These showers will become fewer in number as they move southeast, but we will mention a small risk of a shower Saturday night and Sunday. Nothing widespread or beneficial, but a few lawns might see a little rain. Sunday will feature a partly sunny sky with a high in the upper 80s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: High school games played under tomorrow night lights across Alabama will be rain-free with a clear sky; temperatures will fall from the mid 80s at kickoff into the 70s by the final whistle.

Alabama hosts Western Kentucky Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium for the 2016 home opener (2:30p CT kickofF)… the sky will be partly sunny with 92 degrees at kickoff… dropping back into the upper 80s by the end of the game. You won’t be needing a jacket or sweater… we promise. Keep in mind a few isolated showers are possible in Tuscaloosa after the game Saturday night.

Auburn will host Arkansas State at Jordan Hare Stadium Saturday evening (6:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 86 degrees at kickoff into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: The front over Alabama will wash out early in the week, and the pattern still looks mostly dry. Any showers Monday will be widely spaced, and the risk of a shower is so small Tuesday through Thursday that we won’t mention it in the forecast. Highs next week will be in the 88-92 degree range; lows will be in the 60s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered storms on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs on the immediate coast in the upper 80s, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: NHC is monitoring two tropical waves; both are disorganized. One is east of the Leeward Islands (designated Invest 93L), and the other is farther out in the eastern Atlantic. Higher probability of development goes to the eastern-most system; remains to be seen if they develop at all, or impact any landmass.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting the 6th graders at Clanton Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Pleasant Mornings, Hot Afternoons

| September 8, 2016 @ 5:57 am

NEW DAY, OLD FORECAST: Today will be the seventh consecutive day with no rain for Birmingham and most of North/Central Alabama; dry air means a mostly sunny sky with a high up in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. On the positive side, dew points remain low, and the humidity values during the peak of the heat later today will be only in the 20/30 percent range.

And, no change tomorrow. Lots of sun, a high between 92 and 95, and fairly low humidity levels.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will keep an eye on a weak surface front that will drift down into North Alabama Saturday night, but the day Saturday looks rain-free with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low 90s. We will mention a small risk of a shower with the front Saturday night and Sunday, but with little moisture and no real upper support, the chance of any one spot getting wet is only about one in ten. The high Sunday will drop back into the upper 80s with the sky remaining partly sunny.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: High school games played under tomorrow night lights across Alabama will be rain-free with a clear sky; temperatures will fall from the mid 80s at kickoff into the 70s by the final whistle.

Alabama hosts Western Kentucky Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium for the 2016 home opener (2:30p CT kickofF)… the sky will be mostly sunny with 92 degrees at kickoff… dropping back into the upper 80s by the end of the game. You won’t be needing a jacket or sweater… we promise.

Auburn will host Arkansas State at Jordan Hare Stadium Saturday evening (6:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 86 degrees at kickoff into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: The generally dry pattern continues. We might consider a small risk of a shower Monday over Central and South Alabama south of the stalled surface front, but again the chance of any one front yard getting rain is very small. The latest model data suggests highs around 90, and lows between 67 and 70. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated storms on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands could show some development in coming days, but odds are high this gains latitude and won’t impact the Caribbean or the Gulf. NHC has actually lowered the development odds a bit overnight.

ON THIS DATE IN 1900: An estimated Category 4 storm made landfill in Galveston, Texas. This hurricane killed between 6,000 and 12,000 individuals, making it the deadliest U.S. Atlantic hurricane on record. The highest point in the city of Galveston was less than nine feet above sea level. The hurricane brought a storm surge of over 15 feet, which overwhelmed the entire island.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program this morning at Clanton Middle School… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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