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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Big Change To Cold Weather Ahead

| 3:31 pm November 11, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

LAST MILD DAY FOR A WHILE: Temperatures are up in the low 70s across the great state of Alabama this afternoon; Tuscaloosa is up to 75 at 3:00. But, the long discussed Arctic front is very close. Memphis is down to 49 degrees at mid-afternoon, and the leading edge of that cold air will be entering Northwest Alabama soon.

TONIGHT: A little scattered light rain is likely along the front tonight, but amounts should be generally under 0.05″, and many places won’t get enough to measure.

2014 November Animated

BIG TIME COLD FOR NOVEMBER: We will struggle to reach the low 50s tomorrow; the sky will be cloudy the morning, but a few intervals of afternoon sunshine are possible.

Then, for Thursday and Friday, we project highs only in the 40s, with lows down in the 20s. The air will be dry, and the sky will be partly to mostly sunny both days.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday morning will be another very cold one with lows down in the mid 20s. During the day, we project a high in the low 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Clouds increase Saturday night, and Sunday still looks like cold and wet day with periods of rain and a high only in the mid 40s. Average rain amounts of 1/2 inch are likely, but some places south of Birmingham could see up to one inch.

As the rain begins early Sunday, there is a chance we see a little sleet in the mix, but that shouldn’t last long as the day should feature mostly rain.

WINTER WEATHER MISCHIEF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING? The GFS continues to advertise a surface low south of Mobile Bay Sunday, then moving to a point off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday. This will pull another surge of cold, Arctic air into Alabama, and there is some chance the rain could change to light snow before ending over about the northern third of Alabama.

mon_12p

The better chance of seeing any signifiant accumulation for now is up around the Tennessee border, and even there amounts probably won’t be that high. But, understand this is five days out, and things will change as we get closer.

No need to buy mild and bread, or YooHoos and Twinkies. No need to stock up for a blizzard, and no need to run down the street screaming “it is going to snow”. This is just to let you know of the potential, and we will be able to be much more specific later this week.

NEXT WEEK: After the precipitation ends Monday morning, more cold air arrives. Parts of North Alabama might have a hard time getting out of the 30s Tuesday; most places around here will see highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s early in the week before a slow warming trend begins.

Take some time to see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school playoff games Friday night, we project a kickoff temperature around 40 degrees, then falling through the 30s during the games. Needless to say, you will need to bundle up. The sky will be clear.

The biggest college game in the country will be in Tuscaloosa Saturday as Mississippi State comes to town to take on Alabama. If you are planning on being with the ESPN GameDay crew, early morning temperatures will be in the upper 20s, rising through the 30s, and reaching the 40s by late morning. The kickoff temperature (2:30p CT) will be close to 52 degrees with a partly sunny sky, but as the sun goes down temperatures will drop quickly into the 40s during the second half.

Auburn will be over in Athens, GA to take on the Georgia Bulldogs Saturday evening (6:15p CT kickoff)… expect a party cloudy sky with a temperature near 46 degrees at kickoff, then dropping slowly through the 40s during the game.

LOOK BACK AT SNOWJAM 2014: The January 28th Winter Storm earlier this year will be legendary for decades across Central Alabama. Keith Stellman, the Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service Atlanta will talk about the event’s impact and meteorology at the Central Alabama National Weather Association Meeting this coming Monday, November 17th. The meeting starts at 7 p.m. in room F at the Medical Forum Building in the BJCC Downtown. The meeting is free to NWA Chapter members, visitors are $10 For more information, see Bill’s blog post below.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Atlanta Snowjam Will Be Topic At NWA Chapter Meeting Monday Night 11/17

| 1:08 pm November 11, 2014

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-Credit Mark Bradley AJC http://markbradley.blog.ajc.com/2014/01/29/snowjam-2014-atlanta-at-its-absolute-worst/

Sorry for the late notice, but finding a venue for our last full chapter meeting was difficult this time. However, we have an outstanding speaker lined up for the meeting this coming Monday, November 17th at 7 p.m. at the Medical Forum Building at the Civic Center downtown.

Keith Stellman is the Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service in Atlanta. He is responsible for forecasts and warnings for 96 counties in the northern part of Georgia. He will be speaking on a subject that is near and dear to our hearts: the January 28th winter storm in the Southeast U.S.

Stellman

Like Birmingham, Atlanta has rarely been exposed to the unique and devastating combination of dramatically below freezing temperatures at onset of frozen precipitation on a weekday. Like here, a humanitarian crisis ensued with tens of thousands of commuters stranded on area highways.

Keith will focus on the meteorological factors that made this event so significant, the forecasts and warnings and lessons learned from them as well as the human and government response.

The meeting will be held in Meeting Room F in the Forum Building at 950 22nd Street North. This is the building to the east of the Sheraton and has an entrance at ground level on 22nd Street. You can also access it from the 3rd level of the parking deck.

You can park in the 22nd street deck and we will have parking validation. Or you can park on the street around the complex.

Doors will open at 6:30 p.m. and the meeting and presentation will start at 7 p.m.

upsilon

The meeting is free to members of the Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association. Visitors may attend for $10. You can join the chapter at:

http://groupspaces.com/CentralAlabamaNWAChapter/

The Chapter Holiday Party will be announced at the meeting.

This meting is being sponsored by the Westin and BJCC. Thanks to them for their support.

-Bill Murray

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Our Last Mild Afternoon For A While

| 6:22 am November 11, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ONE MORE: We project a high close to 70 degrees this afternoon, a little above our average high of 66 for November 11. This, most likely, will be our warmest day for the rest of the month, so be sure and enjoy it. The sky will be partly sunny, although clouds will thicken late this afternoon.

ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT: The long advertised Arctic cold front will bring the risk of a touch of light rain to Alabama tonight, but many places won’t get enough rain to measure due to very limited moisture. If you are lucky you might see 0.05″.

Then, the big chill begins to arrive tomorrow. Communities north of Birmingham won’t get out of the 40s… for places like Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, and Birmingham low 50s are possible, with mid 50s down at Montgomery. The sky will be mostly cloudy tomorrow with only a limited amount of sunshine.

TOO COLD FOR NOVEMBER: For Thursday and Friday, our weather will be dry but very cold for the middle of November. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. The GFS is now printing a low of 24 degrees for Birmingham early Friday morning… meaning of course we could see a few colder pockets hitting the 18-22 degree zone over North Alabama. The record low for Birmingham for November 24 is 13 degrees set in 1970; that is not in danger.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday morning will feature another low in the 20s, and the high will be close to 50 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds. Clouds thicken Saturday night, and Sunday looks cold and wet with periods of rain as a surface low forms on the Gulf Coast. We won’t get out of the 40s Sunday, and rain amounts should be close to 1/2 inch. Some South Alabama communities could see close to one inch of rain Sunday.

SUNDAY NIGHT WINTER WEATHER MISCHIEF? North of Alabama, our friends in parts of Tennessee could be dealing with snow Sunday in the colder air, and as the surface low lifts northeast, I do believe there is a chance the rain could taper off as light snow over the northern third of Alabama. This is the projected snow depth from the GFS model valid Monday morning at 6:00 a.m…

mon_gfs+snow

The European model does not show any snow for North Alabama, and I don’t think we need to mention anything for now in our public forecast since there is very little skill in resolving something like this five days in advance. If we do see some snow north of Birmingham Sunday night, it should be fairly light.

One thing to point out is that global models really won’t have the ability to handle this well with such an anomalous cold air mass. We will watch model trends closely in coming days… just something to keep an eye on for now. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school playoff games Friday night, we project a kickoff temperature around 40 degrees, then falling through the 30s during the games. Needless to say, you will need to bundle up. The sky will be clear.

The biggest college game in the country will be in Tuscaloosa Saturday as Mississippi State comes to town to take on Alabama. If you are planning on being with the ESPN GameDay crew, early morning temperatures will be in the upper 20s, rising through the 30s, and reaching the 40s by late morning. The kickoff temperature (2:30p CT) will be close to 52 degrees with a partly sunny sky, but as the sun goes down temperatures will drop quickly into the 40s during the second half.

Auburn will be over in Athens, GA to take on the Georgia Bulldogs Saturday evening (6:15p CT kickoff)… expect a party cloudy sky with a temperature near 46 degrees at kickoff, then dropping slowly through the 40s during the game.

NEXT WEEK: Yet another surge of very cold air drops into Alabama early next week; highs will be in the 40s, and lows in the 20s Monday and Tuesday.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

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WeatherBrains 459: Millions in the Bulls Eye

| 5:15 am November 11, 2014

WeatherBrains Episode 459 is now online (November 10, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Dr. Piotr DomaszczynskiTonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement Ground Validation Unit. He received his BS and MS in Electrical Engineering from The Warsaw University of Technology and PhD in Water Resources Engineering from The University of Iowa. Dr. Piotr Domaszczynski, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 88 at Blythe, CA, and Elsinore, CA, and 1 at Great Falls, MT
  • Arctic air flooding the Nation
  • Breaking News: Fropa in Norman, OK, during the show
  • Tropical Atlantic is quiet as is severe weather
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: A tweet I noted last week prompted me to take a look at the naming of moons by Native Americans. While it was the Name “Full Beaver Moon” that got my attention, it was interesting to find out that some of those names had their origins with weather events.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 459:

    GPM Global Precipitation Measurement

    TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

    Sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald

    Picks of the Week:

    Piotr Domaszczynski – Humbled by Forecast Decisions

    Bill Murray – Weather Watch S6E3

    Brian Peters – NHC’s National Map of Storm Surge Risk

    John Scala – Satellite animation of Super Typhoon Nuri

    Rick Smith – Great Blue Norther of November 11, 1911

    James Spann – Sinking of SS Edmund Fitzgerald

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Winter in Less than 4 hours

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

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    One More Mild Day; Then Much Colder

    | 3:10 pm November 10, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    FINE FALL DAY: As expected, temperatures have recovered very nicely from the frosty start earlier today; many places are reporting 70 degrees at mid-afternoon with a deep blue autumn sky. Tonight won’t be as cold; we stay well above freezing with lows in the 40s, and a good chance we see low 70s tomorrow. A good chance tomorrow will be our warmest day for the rest of November, so enjoy it.

    TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: A band of light rain will move into Alabama tomorrow night ahead of the long anticipated Arctic cold front. With very limited moisture, a number of communities won’t get enough rain to measure, and it will be over by 6:00 a.m. Wednesday. Then, during the day Wednesday, much colder air begins to move into our state. The temperature gradient will be pretty tight; north of Birmingham most places won’t get out of the 40s; Birmingham should see low 50s, with mid to upper 50s south of Birmingham. The sky will be generally cloudy Wednesday with a gusty north wind and only a limited amount of sunshine; a blustery day.

    VERY COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Highs drop into the 40s on these two days, with lows in the 20s. The coldest morning should come early Friday, with potential for mid 20s across much of North/Central Alabama. The air will be dry and we expect a good supply of sunshine both days.

    OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be cold and dry, but we should creep up into the low 50s Saturday afternoon with a partly sunny sky. Then, a cold rain is likely statewide Sunday with temperatures holding in the 40s through the day over the northern half of the state.

    Just north of Alabama, snow is possible Sunday over Tennessee; way too early to determine placement and location of the heaviest snow. It will be a close call for those that live along the Alabama/Tennessee border, but for now it looks like just a cold rain for North Alabama. We will keep a very close eye on model trends in coming days.

    mon_snowcover

    Rain amounts Sunday should average 1/2 inch, with potential for a little more in spots.

    FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school playoff games Friday night, we project a kickoff temperature around 40 degrees, then falling through the 30s during the games. Needless to say, you will need to bundle up. The sky will be clear.

    The biggest college game in the country will be in Tuscaloosa Saturday as Mississippi State comes to town to take on Alabama. If you are planning on being with the ESPN GameDay crew, early morning temperatures will be in the upper 20s, rising through the 30s, and reaching the 40s by late morning. The kickoff temperature (2:30p CT) will be close to 52 degrees with a partly sunny sky, but as the sun goes down temperatures will drop quickly into the 40s during the second half.

    Auburn will be over in Athens, GA to take on the Georgia Bulldogs Saturday evening (6:15p CT kickoff)… expect a party cloudy sky with a temperature near 46 degrees at kickoff, then dropping slowly through the 40s during the game.

    And, a big game for UAB Saturday as they host Marshall at Birmingham’s Legion Field (1:00p CT kickoff)… a partly sunny sky at kickoff with about 50 degrees, but temperatures will fall into the 40s by the fourth quarter as the sun goes down.

    NEXT WEEK: Yet another surge of cold air arrives after the rain; highs drop into the 40s again Monday and Tuesday, with potential for lows in the 20s. It is a very cold pattern for November for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.

    KBHM_2014111012_min_max_16

    Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details….

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:00 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    I had a great time today visiting with the 6th graders at East Elementary in Cullman… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here early tomorrow by 7:00 a.m….

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    Very Cold Air Arrives Later This Week

    | 6:34 am November 10, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    NICE WARM-UP TODAY: We are starting off this day with sub-freezing temperatures across parts of North Alabama… some of the colder readings at daybreak:

    Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 27
    Gadsden 28
    Russellville 30
    Haleyville 30
    Cullman 31
    Concord 31
    Sycamore 31
    Montevallo 32
    Fort Payne 32

    Despite the frosty start, the dry air in place will heat very effectively, and we project a high around 70 today with a good supply of sunshine.

    Low 70s are a good possibility tomorrow, and that should be our warmest day for at least the next two weeks, so enjoy it. The sky will be partly sunny, although clouds will begin to thicken late in the day.

    A FEW SPRINKLES: We will mention the chance of a little scattered light rain tomorrow night or very early Wednesday morning ahead of the Arctic front, but many places won’t get enough rain to measure due to limited moisture. If you are lucky you might see 0.05″.

    COLDEST AIR SO FAR: The big cool down begins Wednesday as strong north winds develop over the state. The gradient will be tight; out friends up across the Tennessee Valley won’t get out of the 40s; places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden will see low to mid 50s, but the wind will make it feel colder. Clouds will also linger much of the day, with only a limited amount of sun Wednesday.

    Our coldest days will come on Thursday and Friday; with highs in the 40s, and lows in the 20s. The coldest morning should come early Friday, with a low between 23 and 27 for North/Central Alabama… easily the coldest air we have seen so far this season. These two days will be dry with a sunny sky.

    OUR WEEKEND: Another very cold morning Saturday with lows in the 20s, but we warm into the low 50s Saturday afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. Clouds move in Saturday night, and a cold rain looks like Sunday statewide as low pressure moves along the Gulf Coast. This sure looks like a beneficial rain for the state, with amounts over 1/2 inch likely.

    To the north, our friends in Tennessee and Kentucky might be dealing with some winter precipitation, but that mischief should not impact Alabama at all… just rain down here. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

    FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school playoff games Friday night, we project a kickoff temperature around 40 degrees, then falling through the 30s during the games. Needless to say, you will need to bundle up. The sky will be clear.

    The biggest college game in the country will be in Tuscaloosa Saturday as Mississippi State comes to town to take on Alabama. If you are planning on being with the ESPN GameDay crew, early morning temperatures will be in the upper 20s, rising through the 30s, and reaching the 40s by late morning. The kickoff temperature (2:30p CT) will be close to 52 degrees with a partly sunny sky, but as the sun goes down temperatures will drop quickly into the 40s during the second half.

    Auburn will be over in Athens, GA to take on the Georgia Bulldogs Saturday evening (6:15p CT kickoff)… expect a party cloudy sky with a temperature near 46 degrees at kickoff, then dropping slowly through the 40s during the game.

    And, a big game for UAB Saturday as they host Marshall at Birmingham’s Legion Field (1:00p CT kickoff)… a partly sunny sky at kickoff with about 50 degrees, but temperatures will fall into the 40s by the fourth quarter as the sun goes down.

    LONG RANGE: Temperatures are expected to remain below average for the U.S. east of the Rockies through November 23…

    814temp.new

    Some evidence the pattern relaxes late in the month.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    I will be doing a weather program this morning at East Elementary in Cullman… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

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    Frost Advisory Tonight

    | 5:58 pm November 9, 2014

    11-9-2014 5-54-09 PM

    …FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA TONIGHT…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A FROST
    ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CST
    MONDAY.

    * TEMPERATURES…OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 33 TO 37 DEGREES.

    * IMPACTS…THE FROST WILL AFFECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION. TAKE
    PRECAUTIONS TONIGHT TO PROTECT OUTDOOR PLANTS.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
    PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

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    Gorgeous Sunday Afternoon

    | 3:09 pm November 9, 2014

    It is such a beautiful day across the entire state. We are once again seeing a nearly completely clear sky across the state, with just a few clouds over southeastern portions of the state.

    It was another chilly start to the day, with widespread 30s and 40s. Under the sun-filled sky, temps are once again in the 60s in most locations this afternoon.

    Tonight, under a mostly clear sky, we will see our temps drop back into the 30s area wide. Heading into the work week, temps will be moderating and we should see highs near the 70s degree mark, but by the middle part of the week, a very strong cold front will bring in a very cold air mass into the state to end the week. Enjoy the next few days or warm weather.

    11-9-2014 2-52-59 PM

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