RADAR CHECK: Showers and storms are increasing over Southwest Alabama early this morning; a few severe thunderstorm warnings have been required…
It sure looks like most of the showers and storms will stay over the southern half of Alabama today, where SPC maintains a “marginal risk” of severe storms. An isolated shower could pop up over the northern counties this morning, but that seems rather unlikely. We rise into the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
TOMORROW: Dry and very warm weather is the story for North/Central Alabama, we reach the mid to upper 80s with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Any showers will be confined to the far southwest counties of the state.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moisture begins to return, and we will mention the risk of scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm Saturday, but a decent part of the day will be dry. With a mix of sun and clouds, the high Saturday will be in the mid 80s for most places.
Showers and storms should be a little more numerous Sunday, but again we will have some very nice breaks in the rain during the day, with potential for some sun at times. No severe weather is expected, and the high Sunday will be close to 80 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: It sure looks like a good part of the week will be dry, and cooler as an upper trough begins to form over the eastern U.S. Highs drop into the 70s, and we could see lows down in the 40s by mid to late week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and warm at the Superspeedway with a high between 85 and 88 degrees. On Saturday, a decent part of the day will be dry, but we can’t rule out a passing shower or two. The weather stays warm with a high in the low to mid 80s. I don’t think there will be many problems running the Sparks Energy 300.
On Sunday there should be an increase in the number of showers and storms across the state, but this won’t be a wash-out, and again I think there is a good chance the GEICO 500 will run, although a delay is certainly possible. Sunday’s high will be close to 80 degrees.
AT THE BEACH: A passing shower or storm is a decent possibility today, but the sun will be out at times. Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday, then a risk of scattered storms Sunday from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach. Highs will be in the 70s along the immediate coast, with 80s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.
ON THIS DATE TWO YEARS AGO: A total of 18 tornadoes touched down across North/Central Alabama, one person, 21-year-old University of Alabama swimmer John Servati, was killed in Tuscaloosa; there were about two dozen injuries elsewhere.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
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I have a weather program today at Sycamore Elementary in Talladega County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
At 9:00 PM, nearly all of the rain from the line of storms have now pushed into western Georgia. It is still raining in parts of Russell and Barbour counties, but they will be completely out of the state by 9:30 PM.
Fortunately, there were very few reports of damage across the state. The only reports came from Butler County, where severe thunderstorm winds blew trees down on Cahaba Road and at Wildforks Road. Only one other report of a tree and some power lines down in Crenshaw County.
SPC has dropped the severe risks for the whole state, as helicity and instability values continue to drop, and will do so throughout the overnight hours.
The rest of tonight and into tomorrow will mainly be dry. There is a risk for isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop across the area throughout the overnight hours. Even though some of these could be strong, the overall severe threat is minimal. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy across the area. Overnight temperatures will only fall to the upper 60s to near 70.
Rain totals for this system tonight have ranged from no measurable rainfall at the Birmingham Airport, to 0.68 inches at Montgomery, to 0.26 inches at Mobile, and to 0.05 at Alexander City.
The Storm Prediction Center has just released an update for the severe weather outlook for the remainder of tonight until 7 AM tomorrow morning. All of the state has been cleared from any severe risk. There is a risk for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop during the evening and overnight hours. With the instability and helicity values dropping, severe weather threat is minimal.
A line of showers and thunderstorms currently stretch from Anniston, to Eufala, back to the southwest to Andalusia, and into the panhandle or Florida through Covington County. Line has weekend as it has pushed to the east-northeast through southern Alabama. There is still plenty of lightning involved, so stay inside until the line has passed. The line of storms should be exiting the state during the 8-9 PM timeframe tonight.
Instability levels have dropped considerably, with CAPE values mostly at 300-1,000 J/kg for much of the state, except for a few places in south Alabama where values are at 2,000 J/kg.
Latest runs of both the high-resolution NAM and the HRRR models have some redevelopment over the area during the late night and overnight hours. The NAM is a little more aggressive with the redevelopment. The HRRR is trending with a more drier solution. Therefore, I’ll say a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop over the area during tonight through the pre-dawn hours.
Most of the state remains under a “Marginal Risk” for severe storms through 7 AM Thursday morning. So, small hail and gusty winds could be possible. As instability and helicity values continue to drop tonight, the likelihood of severe weather happening is minimal.
Currently a line of storms are currently located along the I-65 corridor from southern Shelby county down through Baldwin County and out into the gulf, with an arm stretching to the east along the I-85 corridor from Montgomery county all the way into western Georgia. The line is moving to the northeast. Plenty of lightning with these storms, so if you’re in the path it would be advisable that you stay inside until these storms pass.
There is a strong thunderstorm up in Limestone county in northern Alabama. There is plenty of lightning associated with this cell as well. It is moving to the northeast and will move into Tennessee within an hour.
No watches or warnings are currently in effect in Alabama at the moment.
As of now, Instability numbers are still higher in the southern part of the state, with CAPE values in the 2,000-3,500 J/kg range. Shear numbers are starting to rise, especially over southwestern Alabama, but these are increasing well behind the storms.
The latest run of the HRRR model shows some storms redeveloping over the northwestern parts of the state around the 7:00 PM time frame, and moving northeast through the counties along and north of the I-20 and I-59 corridors. With that said, we’ll keep a risk for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the rest of tonight and into early tomorrow morning. Some storms could be strong, but severe weather risk is minimal.
A Significant Weather Advisory has been issued for Northeastern Russell County until 5:30 PM CDT. A strong thunderstorm was located near Fort Benning/Lawson Air Field and Phenix City, moving to the northeast at 20 MPH. Dime size hail and gusty winds in excess of 40 MPH will be possible. If you are in the path of this storm, please seek shelter immediately.