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Showers More Widespread Tomorrow

| 3:45 pm July 8, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are mainly over the northern third of Alabama at mid-afternoon… most of the storms are north of U.S. 278, and are moving east. The southern two-thirds of the state is generally rain-free with temperatures in the 89-92 degree range.

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TOMORROW/THURSDAY: Tomorrow looks like a relatively wet day, with occasional showers and thunderstorms. Showers could very well begin around daybreak across North/Central Alabama… it won’t rain all day long, but it could rain at any hour of the day, and a strong storm is possible. We won’t get past the low to mid 80s due to clouds and showers.

The coverage of showers on Thursday will begin to decrease, but there still should be a pretty decent risk of some rain from I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston) south… showers over the northern third of the state will be fewer in number and pretty widely spaced as drier drops south from Tennessee.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The trend will be toward hotter and drier weather across Alabama as the surface front loses it’s identity, and an upper ridge builds over the region. Look for mostly sunny, hot, hazy days with highs in the low 90s… a few mid 90s are possible in spots, especially over West Alabama. A few isolated afternoon showers can’t be ruled out over the weekend, but many most communities should be dry.

Then, early next week, there is a decent chance showers and storms will increase again as the ridge aloft weakens, and another surface boundary drops in from the north. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

AT THE BEACH: We project about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend with just a few widely scattered storms from Panama City over to Gulf Shores. Highs on the coast will be in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 84 degrees.

TROPICS: Dry air covers much of the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the week. And, over in the western Pacific, Typhoon Neoguri has weakened with sustained winds down to about 105 mph. Flash flooding is the primary through over southern Japan in coming days.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I enjoyed seeing the senior adults today at First Baptist Church in Guin… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Higher Rain Chances Arrive Tomorrow

| 6:15 am July 8, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ON THE MAPS: A rather strong upper trough is supporting a band of thunderstorms across the nation’s heartland this morning, and the surface front associated with this feature will drift down into Tennessee tomorrow, giving us an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

But, before that arrives, our weather won’t change too much today. Partly sunny, a few widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon with a high at or just over 90 degrees in most places.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: These two days should offer the best coverage of showers and storms. In fact, some rain is possible tomorrow morning as the surface front nears the Tennessee border. A few strong thunderstorms are possible; SPC has the low end 5 percent risk of severe weather in place across much of Alabama, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. Due to the clouds and showers, tomorrow’s high will be only in the mid 80s in most places.

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The coverage of showers and storms Thursday is a little more questionable; the NAM and GFS are hinting that drier air will creep down into North Alabama, suggesting the more numerous showers will be over the southern half of the state. We will hang on to the risk of a few passing showers or storms Thursday with a high in the upper 80s.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather will trend drier and hotter, as the front washes out and an upper high builds across the Deep South. Look for a good supply of hazy sunshine all three days with only isolated afternoon showers and storms; afternoon highs rise into the low 90s, with a few mid 90s possible over the western half of the state.

Coverage of showers and storms should increase again early next week as the upper high weakens, and another surface front approaches from the north. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin will remain very quiet this week with dry air in place… over in the western Pacific, Typhoon Neoguri is just west of Okinawa with sustained winds of 125 mph… it will weaken and move into southern Japan in about 30 hours… flooding is the main threat for Japan. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for maps and graphics.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day from Panama City over to Gulf Shores through the weekend with only widely scattered thunderstorms around. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s… the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab has dropped to 79 degrees this morning.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be speaking this morning at First Baptist Church of Guin… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day….

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WeatherBrains 441: Plenty of Time for a Snafu

| 5:15 am July 8, 2014

WeatherBrains Episode 441 is now online (July 7, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Kim RunkTonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is currently serving as Acting Director of the National Weather Service (NWS) Operations Proving Ground (OPG) in Kansas City, MO. His career in operational meteorology spans more than 35 years, first with the US Air Force, then with NOAA and the NWS. Kim Runk, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Three WCMs are on the show tonight, including Kim, of course Rick and a retired WCM in Brian. Going to put Rick and Brian in the hot seats with Kim tonight for a little world of WCM discussion.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 119 at Death Valley, CA, and 38 at Stanley, ID, and Snake River, WY
  • Severe storm risk from Nebraska eastward to southern New England
  • Since our last show, Hurricane Arthur came and went along East Coast
  • Tropics quiet for now
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is out again, so the mail bag is getting heavy.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: This episode of WeatherBrains 101 puts in a plug for child safety in hot cars. Did you know that 15 children have died this year already from heat stroke brought on by being left in an unattended automobile. There needs to be more attention drawn to this danger of hot weather.

    TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of July 7.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 441:

    NWS Operations Proving Ground Charter

    NOAA Testbed and Proving Grounds

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – Lamp Simulates Thunderstorm

    Bill Murray – Kim Runk’s Video on Culture Change in the NWS

    Brian Peters – Kids and Cars on Heat Stroke

    Kim Runk – @nwstornado – any NWS tornado warning will have this hashtag

    Rick Smith – Leading Culture Change in the NWS

    James Spann – Joint Typhoon Warning Center

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Rick Smith, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

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    Only Isolated Showers This Afternoon

    | 3:47 pm July 7, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    RADAR CHECK: Pretty quiet at mid-afternoon as expected… we just have a few isolated showers over Northwest Alabama moving slowly to the east; these should fizzle out pretty quickly after sunset. Otherwise, the sky is partly to mostly sunny, and most places are seeing a high around 90 degrees.

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    MID-WEEK: A surface boundary will approach from the north, and tomorrow there should be an increase in the number of showers and storms mainly over the Tennessee Valley region of far North Alabama… the rest of the state will see only isolated showers with a high at or just over 90.

    Then, all of North/Central Alabama should see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls out near the Alabama/Tennessee border. SPC has the low end 5 percent severe possibility in place for much of our state Wednesday, so a few strong storms are possible with gusty winds, but organized severe weather for now doesn’t look likely with a relatively weak wind field. Highs will drop into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday because of clouds and showers, and average rain amounts of around one inch can be expected. Of course, we all know that summer rain distribution is very uneven, and your amount could vary.

    FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The 12Z run of the GFS model continues to show drier air creeping down into the northern third of the state, and the chance of rain accordingly will decrease with increasing amounts of sunshine. The weekend looks mostly dry and hot; highs in the low 90s with only isolated showers Saturday and Sunday.

    Still some evidence showers and storms could increase again early next week across the Deep South as the upper ridge begins to weaken a bit. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

    GULF COAST WEATHER: Looks good through the weekend; about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day, with the usual risk of widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s… sea water temperatures are generally in the mid 80s.

    TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet with dry air over much of the basin. Over in the western Pacific, thankfully Neogrui lost the “super typhoon” status today as drier air has entered the circulation. Still, it is the equivalent of a category three hurricane, and will pass just west of Okinawa tomorrow, and impact far southern Japan later this week (main risk there will come from flooding). See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps and graphics.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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    Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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    Heat/Humidity Levels Rising

    | 6:33 am July 7, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    BACK IN THE SADDLE: Thanks to Bill Murray, Brian Peters, Meaghan Thomas, and the gang for allowing me to have little down time, which was needed and appreciated. In today’s world of media meteorology, I work 18 hour days (no exaggeration), and getting “off the grid” is something you have to do on occasion. But, always good to be back at it.

    What a Fourth of July weekend… with low humidity and record lows across the great state of Alabama. It will never get much better in mid-summer around here.

    HEATING UP: The last time we had a high at or over 90 degrees was back on July 2, and we have a good chance of reaching 90 (or slightly higher) today as heat and humidity levels rise across the Deep South. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny, and while a few isolated showers could pop up this afternoon, the chance of any one spot getting wet is only about one in ten.

    Not much overall change tomorrow, although the risk of an afternoon shower will be a little higher over the northern third of the state.

    WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These two days will offer the best chance of showers and thunderstorms as a surface front drops down toward the Alabama/Tennessee state line and becomes stationary. We will project scattered to numerous showers and storms both days, with highs back in the mid to upper 80s because of the clouds and showers. A few strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon; SPC has low end 5 percent severe weather possibilities in place across much of the state.

    FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS suggests that drier air could creep into North Alabama Friday, with the higher risk of a shower or storm moving down into the southern half of the state. Then, the front dissipates over the weekend with rising heat levels and few showers. Bottom line is that the weekend for now is looking mostly hot and dry with only isolated showers… highs should be up in the low to mid 90s.

    Showers and storms could show an increase early next week as a weakness in the upper ridge develops. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

    AT THE BEACH: The weather looks good this week… from Panama City over to Gulf Shores expect about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day with only widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 81 degrees.

    TROPICS: The Atlantic basin should be quiet all week as the dry, Saharan dust layer is evident. But, over in the western Pacific, Super Typhoon Neoguri is packing sustained winds of over 150 mph…

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    It will skirt by Okinawa tomorrow, and then move up into southern Japan Wednesday. Thankfully it will be weakening as it moves into Japan, but it will still pack a punch.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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    A Few Showers Return

    | 2:17 pm July 6, 2014

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    A very nice early July Sunday is in progress across Central Alabama. Things are returning to normal quickly in the temperature and moisture department across Alabama. Precipitable water values are getting back to 1.5 inches across the state, as evidenced in the lower left panel of the graphic. Temperatures are climbing through the middle 80s for the most part but were already near 90F at Tuscaloosa. You can see the nice field of cumulus clouds which are a byproduct of the increased moisture. A few showers were starting to show up over East Central and South Central Alabama, from Alex City to Montgomery to Greenville over to LaGrange, Georgia. The pulse thunderstorms are drifting aimlessly to the northwest for the most part.

    The Sidewalk Film Festival is a proud sponsor of AlabamaWX.com!

    MyWARN SEVERE WEATHER TODAY: Severe weather is likely today across parts of Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, northeastern Iowa and northern Illinois. The culprit is a surface low that is moving from Minnesota to Wisconsin.

    TROPICS:  The post tropical low that was Arthur is skirting Newfoundland this morning.  There is a trough of low pressure southeast of Georgia coast that is triggering widespread showers and storms.  It is not recognized as a disturbance yet by the NHC and development is not expected.  But it is another case of where we will probably see our tropical cyclones develop for the most part this year: close in to the U.S.

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    Some Clouds as We Warm Up

    | 6:49 am July 6, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    We’re closing out the Fourth of July weekend with another great day of mostly sunny weather as our highs return to values typical for early July with highs reaching near 90. Our atmosphere remained very dry aloft but moisture levels will creep up today and into the first of the week as we see the low level flow come around to the southeast and then the south. Some early morning clouds passing Central Alabama plus a slight uptick in the humidity means a slightly milder start to the day than that truly refreshing start we saw yesterday morning with lows dipping into the 50s generally along and north of the I-20 corridor.

    The good news is that the overall upper air pattern retains the ridge in the West and a general trough over the East which keeps the heat in check. The trough deepens somewhat in response to a strong short wave moving through the westerlies across the southern tier of Canada. Unlike the last front, this trough should signal the approach of a cold front from the north on Wednesday that is likely to get into the area before stalling out like many fronts do in the summertime.

    With the humidity levels up, we should see a return to showers and isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday through the end of the week and into next weekend. Daytime heating is expected to be the main driving force in shower development with rain chances becoming the best on Thursday.

    The trough pulls out to the northeast by the latter part of the week with ridging building again over the Central Mississippi River Valley, leaving a warm and unstable air mass in place across the Southeast with daily chances for showers or thunderstorms.

    Beach goers continue to see a good supply of sun along the Alabama and Northwest Florida beaches with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s. Scattered showers return to the forecast into Tuesday and the rest of the week with moisture levels up. Gulf water temperatures were still running in the range of 82 to 84.

    Tropics remain quiet now that Arthur is gone.

    The longer range model projections maintain the idea of the ridge in the West and the slight trough in the East through the middle of July, but major ridging was back in the picture by July 21st.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. James Spann will be back from his vacation with the next edition of the video on Monday morning. Enjoy the end of the July Fourth weekend. Godspeed.

    -Brian-

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    Great Weather Continues

    | 12:30 pm July 5, 2014

    Once again, it is hard to believe we are in July, when the temps this morning were more like early October. It was quite the cool and refreshing morning as 50s made it down to the Interstate 20 corridor with Birmingham reaching 58, while Tuscaloosa reached 60, and Anniston 61. Elsewhere across the northern portions of the state, Huntsville was 57, Muscle Shoals 56, Cullman 53, and Gadsden 59. Hope you had the chance to enjoy these temps, because it probably will be late September to early October before we see these type of temps again.

    For the rest of today, we are going to continue to see mostly sunny conditions with only a few clouds tracking across the state from east to west. We will all stay dry once again, and temps will continue to warm as most locations will see upper 80s for afternoon highs, with perhaps a few 90s creeping into our southern counties. Humidity levels will remain below seasonal norms for a few more days, but it won’t be too long before the humidity levels return.

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