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Severe Weather Threat Ahead For Alabama

| 6:38 am October 13, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

As always before any severe weather threat, I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and detailed information on what is ahead.

AT DAYBREAK: Things are pretty quiet early this morning; just a few sprinkles on the radar near the Tennessee border… most of the state is rain-free with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s around here. We don’t expect any weather problems through the morning hours.

SEVERE STORMS AHEAD: A vigorous upper trough west of Alabama, with an attendant surface low and cold front, will bring the threat of severe weather to our state late today and tonight. Here is a look at what we expect across Alabama…

TIMING: Severe storms could develop over the western half of Alabama as early as 4:00-5:00 this afternoon. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail, damaging wind, and maybe even a tornado or two. The primary squall line will enter West Alabama late tonight, around midnight, and will move slowly through the state during the pre-dawn hours. After midnight, the core threat shifts to damaging straight line wind along the squall line. It could very well be after daybreak tomorrow before the storms impact places like Anniston and Gadsden in East Alabama.

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THREATS: The highest tornado probabilities are west of Alabama, around Memphis and the Mississippi Delta this afternoon and early tonight, but clearly there will be a risk of a few tornadoes over West Alabama between 5:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. All of Alabama will have a risk of damaging straight line winds, with individual thunderstorms, and with the organized line that will move through after midnight. And, some hail is also possible in stronger storms.

FLASH FLOODING: A flash flood watch is in effect for that part of Alabama north of a line from Millport to Jasper to Oneonta to Fort Payne. Keep in mind this part of the state, received significant rain over the weekend; we have reports of almost five inches of rain around Cullman. Additional rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches will create the risk of flooding tonight.

GET THE WARNINGS! Remember, if you think you will hear an outdoor warning siren late tonight while you family is sleeping, you pretty much have no hope of getting a warning. Every home needs a properly programmed NOAA Weather Radio, and a good “second layer” is a smart phone app like MyWarn, or WeatherRadio. Be sure you and your family can hear severe weather warnings late this afternoon and tonight.

ABC 33/40 COVERAGE: If any part of our TV market is under a tornado warning, you know the deal… we go on the air, and stay on the air. When we have no active tornado warnings, tonight we will be on our live stream, and our digital weather channel “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state. You can access the live stream through any ABC 33/40 app, including the James Spann 24/7 app, or on the ABC 33/40 web site.

REST OF THE WEEK: Rain moves out of the state tomorrow, and the weather turns much cooler with a gusty north breeze. A cut-off upper low will persist north of the state Wednesday, and could keep clouds over the northern third of the state, and maybe even a touch of light rain or drizzle around the Tennessee Valley. A good chance we won’t get out of the 60s Wednesday.

Then, the weather will be delightful Thursday and Friday with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights; highs in the 70s and lows down around 50 degrees. Colder pockets will visit the 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Could not be better. Clear weather continues; highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s. Perfect for race weekend at Talladega, football, or anything else you want to do outdoors.

TROPICS: We have a pair of tropical storms in the Atlantic; Fay is east of Bermuda, and is moving east over the open Atlantic. And, Gonzalo is near the Leeward Islands; it will be near the eastern tip of Puerto Rico after midnight tonight as a strong tropical storm, and should become a hurricane tomorrow as moves over the open Atlantic. These will not impact the U.S. mainland.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We have moved this week’s show to tomorrow night at 8:30p CT due to the severe weather threat tonight.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program today at Oliver Elementary School in Birmingham… we will have frequent updates on the severe weather threat here on the blog through the day, and of course as the event unfolds tonight and tomorrow morning. I will post another detailed discussion by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Flash Flood Warning for Parts of Cullman Co. Until 1 a.m.

| 9:05 pm October 12, 2014

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2 to 3 inches of rain has fallen across parts of Cullman County tonight and 3 to 4 inches of rain have fallen near Lake George where flash flood is ongoing. In addition, very heavy thunderstorms are approaching from Winston County and more heavy rain will fall overnight.

Here is the accumulated rainfall radar estimate:

2014-10-12_21-11-11

Here is the current radar:

2014-10-12_21-16-15

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 856 PM CDT…EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ON
COUNTY ROAD 1339 NEAR LAKE GEORGE. THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. COUNTY ROAD 1339…NEAR LAKE GEORGE…HAS
BEEN CLOSED. EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED
TEMPORARILY…MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING ISSUES.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
CULLMAN…HANCEVILLE…GOOD HOPE…HOLLY POND…DODGE CITY…
SARDIS…BALDWIN…VINEMONT…BAILEYTON AND WEST POINT.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning Walker County until 6:45 PM

| 6:04 pm October 12, 2014

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL WALKER COUNTY IN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

10-12-2014 6-05-37 PM

* AT 603 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JASPER…
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
JASPER…LYNNS PARK…SIPSEY…MANCHESTER…BOLDO…POWELLVILLE AND
EMPIRE.

THIS INCLUDES…
US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 57 THROUGH 65…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

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Severe Weather Threat Late Monday into Tuesday…

| 1:52 pm October 12, 2014

A Monday night severe weather threat highlights Alabama’s weather on this mid-October Sunday.

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YOUR SUNDAY MORNING WAS BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MONTH OF MAY: Another springlike morning greeted the day across Central Alabama with a mix of clouds and sun and a few moderate showers splashing and dashing. Morning lows were uniform, with 66F at Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, 65F at Anniston and a muggy 68F at Calera. Dewpoints were in the middle and upper 60s, which is quite moist and feels humid, more like May than September. The warm and muggies will continue through the afternoon hours, with highs topping out in the middle 80s.

ON THE WEATHER MAPS: Looking to charts of the upper levels of the atmosphere, where our weather is created and shaped, we see a huge trough covering most of the United States. The Jetstream is roaring down the western side of the Rocky Mountains, diving toward Old Mexico and Texas. Following its lead, the mid-level flow is picking up moisture to our southwest and spitting disturbances our way here in the Deep South. At the surface, that frontal system that has been hanging around Central Alabama is lifting north this afternoon on the backs of southerly winds ahead of a developing surface low near the Texas/Louisiana border and that southwesterly flow aloft.

SHOWERS AND STORMS: Showers and storms formed this morning over North and North Central Alabama along the retreating frontal boundary, capitalizing on the warm/moist airmass and taking advantage of an approaching upper level disturbance in that upper flow. Some of them were producing very heavy rainfall, gusty winds and frequent lightning but they were not severe. Most of the storms this afternoon should be to the north, but we can’t rule out a few storms in the warm, moist southerly flow over Central Alabama. Also can’t rule out one or two of them briefly becoming severe, but the chance is relatively small. More showers and storms will form overnight as another disturbance swings across the area. They may be noisy, but shouldn’t be severe.

MAIN EVENT: It looks like the main event for Alabama will come tomorrow night into Tuesday as that strong upper level system pushes east, spinning up a decent surface low over Oklahoma. This surface low will track northeast into Missouri, a favorable position for severe weather in Alabama. A strong cold front should be approaching the Mississippi River by tomorrow evening, and showers and storms will break out in the strong southerly flow ahead of the low as the Gulf of Mexico opens for business. So expect a few showers and storms especially during the afternoon tomorrow across the area, increasing in coverage and intensity by 5-6 p.m. Severe weather will be possible with these storms that will continue into the night and be joined by an approaching squall line after midnight. That line of storms will push across the state tomorrow night. Storms will still be possible through the morning hours as the cold front will not make it to I-65 until noon Tuesday. Check your severe weather preparedness plans, make sure you have a reliable way to receive watches and warnings and stay abreast of the weather Monday afternoon evening and overnight.

BIG SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK: This is potentially a big severe weather outbreak for areas mainly to our west, including Memphis, St. Louis, Shreveport and Jackson. The significant severe weather risk will extend into western Alabama late tomorrow night diminishing a but as the activity works further into the state of Alabama during the overnight. Be prepared for damaging winds and even the possibility of a tornado or two.

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Hello Gonzo! Well, Actually Gonzalo…

| 1:07 pm October 12, 2014

We have experienced a little burst of activity in the tropical Atlantic as a cycle called the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is bringing favorable conditions to much of the basin.

Gonzalo avn-animated

Tropical Storm Fay scored a direct hit on the island of Bermuda overnight. Winds officially gusted to 82 mph as the 70 mph tropical storm passed just east of the island after midnight last night. Winds dropped to near calm as the center passed and the barometer was measured at 986 mb. It will continue to the east northeast over open ocean over the next few days.

Now comes Gonzalo…

Based on Air Force Reconnaissance reports from the disturbance east of the northern Leewards, the National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Gonzalo. Gonzalo will produce tropical storm conditions across the northern Leewards, Virgin Islands and perhaps Puerto Rico. The system will recurve to the north.

Here is the latest info on Gonzalo:
SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST…1730 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.4N 58.4W
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

Here is the summary of watches and warnings:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

Further east, Hanna is likely to form in coming days as well, but will recurve well to the east of the islands.

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Showers and Warmth Continue

| 7:03 am October 12, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

As we gear up for the approach of a very dynamic system late Monday and early Tuesday, we will be staying warm and unsettled with scattered showers a possibility through Monday. Highs today should be in the lower and middle 80s with a mix of sun and clouds and those scattered showers. That frontal boundary will gradually wash out over the next 24 hours as a deep trough takes shape just to our west.

A strong impulse coming out of the Rockies will dig a deep trough into the Central US generating a surface low over Oklahoma that will move to the northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon. The strong southerly flow will bring good low level moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. That along with strong low level jet will set the stage for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms over a large portion of the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valley Monday and into early Tuesday. For Central Alabama, it looks like the main threat for strong to severe storms will come in the 9 pm Monday to noon Tuesday time frame. Shear valleys are sufficient to support rotating storms so there is a risk of tornadoes along with damaging thunderstorm wind.

This dynamic system should move through Central Alabama by early Tuesday afternoon with the severe weather risk shifting into Georgia for Day 3 or Tuesday. Some clearing may occur but it looks like there could be some wrap around cloudiness into Wednesday before we see a return to full sunshine.

This system won’t be tapping into any really cold air but we should cool down nicely with lows on Wednesday and Thursday morning dipping into the 40s with afternoon highs in the lower 70s. That will certainly feel nice.

The weather pattern remains fairly active for October with another trough forecast to come across the Great Lakes on Friday. But this system appears to stay well north of us thanks in part to weak ridging following the strong system Monday and Tuesday. This next system will probably drag a front into the eastern US late in the week, however, it looks like we don’t see any significant moisture return, so we should stay dry for the latter part of the week and into next weekend. That will be great for Friday night high school football and college games on Saturday.

In the tropics, Fay transitioned from a sub-tropical storm into a tropical storm yesterday and was brushing by Bermuda this morning. Fay will continue into the North Atlantic on an east to northeast track. Another area of disturbed weather just to the east of the Lesser Antilles shows some potential for development, but this system appears likely to recurve into the Atlantic away from the southern US just as Fay has done.

Beach visitors will have to contend with showers today and Monday along with some risk for severe storms on Monday into the first half of Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 80s. After Tuesday, the weather turns dry along the coast with highs around 80 and lows in the lower 60s. Water temperatures were running in the middle 70s along the Alabama coastal area.

Looking into voodoo country, October appears to remain more active than we usually expect for this, the driest month of the year for Central Alabama. The GFS continued to show another deep trough over the eastern third of the country around the 21st/22nd time frame which would spell another round of rain and storms. The good news is that there does not appear to be any sign of any extreme temperature changes for Week 2.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Monday morning. Check back here for updates on this evolving weather system. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow Night

| 6:34 am October 12, 2014

Here is a look at the Alabama severe weather situation Monday night. A strong upper trough will approach from the west, providing very good dynamic support for the attendant cold front.

gfs_z500_sig_east_10

The Storm Prediction Center has almost all of Alabama in the standard severe weather “slight risk” for tomorrow night, with higher probabilities over the far western part of the state.

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Forecast surface based instabilities are not especially impressive, with CAPE (convective available potential energy) values generally under 1,000 j/kg. The one parameter that does stand out is the low level jet (the winds near 5,000 feet off the ground), which will exceed 50 knots over the northern half of the state.

TIMING: While scattered storms could break out tomorrow afternoon, the core severe weather threat will come from roughly 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 3:00 a.m. Tuesday. Approximate timing for the main line of storms…

West Alabama: 8pm to 11pm
I-65 Corridor/Central Alabama: 11pm to 3am
East Alabama: 3am to 6am (storms should be slowly weakening at this time)

THREATS: The primary threat will come from damaging straight line winds within the QLCS, or squall line. However, there will be sufficient bulk shear for a few small, short lived embedded tornadoes within the line. Thunderstorm winds could be sufficient to knock down trees and power lines during the night. Rain amounts should average 1/2 to 1 inch, but that won’t be enough to create signifiant flooding issues, most likely.

CALL TO ACTION: Since this will be a late night/pre-dawn event, everyone will need to have a properly programmed weather radio, with good batteries installed in case of a power outage, available in your home so you won’t miss any warning that is issued. And, of course, good smart phone apps are another great way of receiving warnings. Apps like WeatherRadio, and MyWarn work very well.

AFTER THE STORMS: Much cooler air invades Alabama; highs drop into the 60s Wednesday, and lows will be in the upper 40s and low 50s…

KBHM_2014101200_min_max_16

Brian Peters will have a full weather discussion, and a new Weather Xtreme video shortly. Stay tuned…

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning Cullman County until 9PM

| 8:25 pm October 11, 2014

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

10-11-2014 8-26-12 PM

* AT 824 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DODGE CITY…OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CULLMAN…AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
CULLMAN…HANCEVILLE…GOOD HOPE…HOLLY POND…DODGE CITY…GARDEN
CITY…WALTER…PHELAN…BREMEN AND LOGAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS…DESTRUCTIVE HAIL…
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

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