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Ryan Stinnett

Ryan Stinnett

Montgomery Television Meteorologist and long time Contributor on AlabamaWX. Stormchaser. I did not choose Weather, it chose Me. College Football Fanatic. @Ryan_Stinnet

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Midday Nowcast: Rinse and Repeat Forecast

| 12:02 pm July 26, 2016

Pretty easy forecasting this time of year, as temperatures are very similar each day, and there is nearly always a threat for rain. For today, temperature are heading towards the 90s this afternoon, and overall it is just a hot and humid Tuesday.

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We are seeing plenty of sunshine this afternoon, but we are also seeing clouds on the increase as well.

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At the writing of this forecast, most of Central Alabama is dry, but we note several showers/storms across South Alabama. Through the afternoon and evening hours, we are going to see isolated to scattered showers/storms develop and move southeast to northwest across the state, due to the main area of high pressure to the east of us.

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Much like Monday, nothing too widespread, but there will be a few storms that will produce a lot lightning and intense rainfall and then gradually wind down after daytime heating is loss.

REST OF WORK WEEK: The hot, humid summer weather continues with the daily round of isolated to perhaps scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s degree range each afternoon, while nights will be muggy, with lows in the 70s. To end the work week, the upper ridge weakens and will allow for some troughing over the Southeast. This will allow us to see a gradual increase in the coverage of scattered showers and storms each day, and heat levels a bit lower. Highs should be around the 90 degree mark and we may even see some spots remain in the upper 80s for highs.

AT THE BEACH: A standard summer forecast for the beaches of the Northern Gulf Coast from Dauphin Island east to Panama City. Plenty of sunshine each day, with passing scattered storms from time to time. Highs are in the upper 80s and lower 90s on the beaches, while just inland you can expect low to mid 90s. The sea water temperature early this afternoon at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach is 87.3 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here .

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Strong Storms Over East Alabama

| 4:46 pm July 23, 2016

Several clusters of storms are impacting portions of East Alabama late this afternoon and these storms are meandering about in different directions. The most intense storms currently are affecting portions of Calhoun, Etowah, Cleburne, Blount and Jefferson counties.

No storms are currently severe, but storms are producing tremendous amounts of lightning, torrential tropical downpours, and gusty winds. These storms will continue to next several hours, before winding down with the loss of daytime heating.

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Summer Marches On

| 2:23 pm July 23, 2016

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Hot, humid weather continues for the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best chance of storms comes during the afternoon and evening hours, but with the moisture-rich air mass in place, a late night or morning shower can not be completely ruled out either. Highs today and tomorrow will range from 90-95 degrees, pretty much what we expect in late July around here.

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HEAT ADVISORY: The NWS maintains the heat advisory again today, as heat index values will be at or just over 105° at times through out Central Alabama. This should be the last day an advisory is needed for Alabama for the next week or so, but there is still plenty of summer left.

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RADAR CHECK: Early this afternoon, we are watching a few showers and storms that are ongoing, but these are rather isolated and confined to northern portions of the state. Through the afternoon, we will continue to see pockets of convection, that will be producing a lot of lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. General storm motion is towards the south. Typical of this time of year, what storms that are out there, should wind down after sunset.

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Watching the Radar

| 12:28 pm July 16, 2016

During the morning hours, showers and storms began to develop across portions of Alabama and these are going to continue to expand in coverage the next several hours.

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There is the possibility of a few strong storms and once again today, the SPC has a “marginal risk” of severe storms defined for nearly the entire state of Alabama. The main threat will come from wet microbursts (small scale areas of strong straight line winds) and small hail.

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All summer storms pack tremendous amounts of lightning and of course intense rainfall which could lead to some areas of isolated flash flooding. Where there are no storms, we are seeing a more sun than clouds, with temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s in many spots.

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For tonight, we will gradually see the convection wind down as the sun sets and daytime heating is loss. It will then become partly cloudy, with some areas of patchy fog, especially after midnight in locations that see rain today. Lows will be in the lower to mid-70s for most locations.

Tomorrow we will begin to see the ridge influence our weather as the overall convective coverage decreases, and actually the best chance of storms will over eastern portions of the state. Still, storms will be possible at just about any spot across the state. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower to perhaps mid 90s.

Strong Storms Impacting Birmingham Suburbs

| 5:49 pm July 10, 2016

Pulse thunderstorms continue to track towards the east across Central Alabama this Sunday evening. As they pulse up in intensity, they are producing a lot of lightning and torrential tropical downpours. As they pulse down in intensity, they will also be certainly capable of producing some damaging wind gusts due to wet microbursts.

These storms will continue the next several hours, but should begin to wind down once the sun sets and daytime heating is loss. Nevertheless, if you find yourself under one of these storms, use precaution as the rainfall will be intense, where some localized flash flooding is possible, and there will be frequent lightning strikes.

The main thunderstorm activity this evening is along and South of the Interstate 20 corridor, including portions of the Birmingham metro. Additional storms continue to impact portions of Chilton, Bibb, Shelby, Coosa, Perry and Dallas counties. We also note a strong storm tracking through northern Calhoun County.

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Lots of Lightning with Storms over West Alabama

| 4:11 pm July 10, 2016

It is the hottest part of the day and storms are bubbling up across the Alabama landscape. We are seeing numerous storms throughout the state, and in North/Central Alabama, the strongest storms currently are over western portions of the state and are shifting east through the state. Locations along the U.S. 43 corridor from Tuscaloosa, down through Demopolis are experiencing the most intense activity currently.

Storms today are producing intense rainfall, small hail, an abundance of lightning, and there is the threat of a few damaging wind gusts associated with wet microburst. At this time, no storms are severe in the area, but we have seen a few severe storms in other portions of the state.

Additional storms are developing around the Montgomery area and lifting towards the northeast. What you see is what you get the rest of the day. Showers and storms will continue to develop the next several hours, but should begin to wind down after sunset.

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Hot & Humid, Scattered Storms

| 2:09 pm July 10, 2016

Early this afternoon, much of the state is seeing plenty of sunshine, and that has allowed temperatures to warm well into the 80s and 90s. There are a few areas of clouds, associated with storms currently ongoing across parts of the state. Through the afternoon hours, we should continue to see cloud cover expand over the state as more storms develop across the area.

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The SPC maintains the “marginal risk” of severe storms this afternoon and evening. The main concern today with the storms will be damaging wind gusts associated with wet microbursts. In addition to the wind, storms today could produce hail, plus a lot of lightning, and very heavy rainfall. Just like we saw yesterday, where the storms go, they could produce localized areas of flash flooding.

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Checking the radar this afternoon, we are tracking a few storms across west Alabama, with additional storms in Mississippi. These storms are tracking towards the east. Also, a rather strong storm is located in Cleburne County in East Alabama, as well as more storms down across the Southeastern portions of the state. The next few hours, we should see additional storms develop, and these will have to potential to briefly become severe.

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Hot July Weekend

| 12:47 pm July 2, 2016

Not quite as comfortable out there today as our humidity levels are on the rise. Dew points are in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and that along with temperatures in the mid 90s for many spots, have it feeling like it is closer to 100°.

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We are seeing more sun than clouds, and with those higher humidity levels, a few isolated showers/storms are certainly possible through the afternoon and evening hours.

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CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY: The Alabama Department of Environmental Management…ADEM…has issued an air quality alert for Jefferson and Shelby counties today. The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area is in the “Code Orange” for ozone. Under code orange conditions, ground level ozone concentrations are expected to reach levels that are unhealthy for sensitive groups. Children and people with asthma, are individuals most at risk under these expected conditions.

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SUNDAY: Expect a near repeat of today, with a mix of sun and clouds, highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s during the afternoon. It will be hot and humid, and there should be a few more showers and storms across the Alabama landscape during the afternoon and evening hours. Pretty typical of early July in Alabama.

FOURTH OF JULY: Better rain chances for the holiday as we are forecasting an increase in the coverage of scattered showers and storms Monday as a surface front approaches from the north. Afternoon highs are expected in the lower 90s. Despite the better chances of rain, Monday won’t be a wash-out. Any holiday plans could be impacted temporarily, but overall most plans should be A-OKAY. The shower and thunderstorms activity will be winding down during the evening hours, and the big fireworks shows around the area, still should be able to go off.

Hot and Humid Alabama Weekend

| 1:33 pm June 25, 2016

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Quite the hot and steamy day across the state as temperatures are well into the 90s this afternoon. With dew points in the 70s, we are seeing those heat index values exceed 105° this afternoon and is why the NWS has issued a heat advisory until 9PM this evening. Take it easy out there today and be sure to stay hydrated.

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Not much in the way of heat relief out there, but there are a few isolated showers and storms on the radar this afternoon. These a few and far between, but are producing heavy rainfall, small hail, and of course frequent and dangerous lightning. Remember, when thunder roars go indoors!

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TONIGHT: Showers and storms will slowly wind down once the sun sets and daytime heating is lost. After that, expect a mainly clear sky, and warm and muggy temperatures. Most locations should settle in the lower and mid 70s by tomorrow morning.

SUNDAY: Tomorrow will be a near repeat of today, as it is going to be hot, humid, with scattered afternoon showers and storms. Once again, heat index values will be flirting with the 105° mark, and we will likely see another Heat Advisory issued for portions of the state. We should see a few more showers and storms tomorrow as well, as the ridge to the west shifts ever so slight west.

Improving Weekend Weather

| 12:54 pm June 18, 2016

After a very active day of weather Friday, we are seeing better weather today as a new air mass is settling into the state. Our flow is from the east today as a wedge feature has set up over the Southeast, and that is allowing the new air mass to move in.

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We are seeing mainly cloudy conditions, but we are seeing some sunshine in a few areas. Through the afternoon and evening, the sky will gradually clear. We are still seeing higher moisture levels today as well, and we can not completely rule out an isolated shower or storm, but nothing like we saw yesterday, and the vast majority of us will be staying dry. Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 70s and 80s for most locations.

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FATHER’S DAY: We start tomorrow morning off very nice with 60s for most locations. The rest of the day, expect a good-looking day of weather for all you dads out there. We are forecasting plenty of sun, highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, and lower humidity levels. Any plans you have for dear old dad will have no weather issues, so enjoy.

TROPICAL UPDATE: A tropical wave located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity from the southern Gulf of Mexico across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low pressure system could form over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but only gradual development is expected due to proximity to land and marginally conducive upper-level winds. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph before it moves inland early next week.

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