Montgomery Television Meteorologist and long time Contributor on AlabamaWX. Stormchaser. I did not choose Weather, it chose Me. College Football Fanatic. @Ryan_Stinnet
After a very active day of weather Friday, we are seeing better weather today as a new air mass is settling into the state. Our flow is from the east today as a wedge feature has set up over the Southeast, and that is allowing the new air mass to move in.
We are seeing mainly cloudy conditions, but we are seeing some sunshine in a few areas. Through the afternoon and evening, the sky will gradually clear. We are still seeing higher moisture levels today as well, and we can not completely rule out an isolated shower or storm, but nothing like we saw yesterday, and the vast majority of us will be staying dry. Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 70s and 80s for most locations.
FATHER’S DAY: We start tomorrow morning off very nice with 60s for most locations. The rest of the day, expect a good-looking day of weather for all you dads out there. We are forecasting plenty of sun, highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, and lower humidity levels. Any plans you have for dear old dad will have no weather issues, so enjoy.
TROPICAL UPDATE: A tropical wave located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity from the southern Gulf of Mexico across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low pressure system could form over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but only gradual development is expected due to proximity to land and marginally conducive upper-level winds. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph before it moves inland early next week.
A complex of strong and severe storms continues to track south through West Alabama. Currently the most intense storms are impacting portions of Marion, Walker, and Fayette counties.
Along with the threat of dangerous and frequent lightning, storms are capable of producing winds in excess of 60mph, along with lots of hail. Hail stones could possibly be as large as ping pong balls, and with the cell in Marion County, golf ball size hail is possible.
High instability values are providing plenty of fuel for the storms today, and updrafts are very strong and thus the large hail. The next few hours, these storms are likely to intensify and we are urging caution for anyone in the path of these storms.
A very unstable atmosphere is in place across the state. It is allowing for very powerful storms to rapidly intensify and track south through the state. The main threat today will be damaging winds, around 60mph, but some winds could possibly be as high as 80mph. Large hail is also possible.
There is a lot of cold and dry air aloft which is conducive for hail development and we could see hail as large as ping pong balls this afternoon. Quarter size hail has been reported with the storms that moved through Winston County.
There is plenty of instability as CAPE values are over 5000 J/kg this afternoon. This will continue to allow the storms to maintain intensity as that track south through the state. Warnings should continue to be issued as the complex of storms heads south. The main line of storms will be moving into the Birmingham Metro after 3PM.
Also, a lot of lightning is occurring with these storms. Stay weather aware this afternoon!
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 171634Z – 171830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT
SUMMARY…SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN
17-19Z. SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE FROM SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORM
CLUSTERS IS FORECAST. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF AL/MS BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER A WATCH IS NEEDED IN
DISCUSSION…VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWELLING CU FIELD ACROSS NRN MS
EWD ACROSS AL AND INTO NWRN GA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS
HAVE WARMED TO THE LOWER 90S AT 16Z AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM
THE MID-UPPER 70S. THE 12Z RAOBS FROM JAN AND BMX EXHIBITED STRONG
BUOYANCY /2500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS
16.5-17.0 G/KG. STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PROBABLY RESULTED
IN EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND AUGMENTED MIXING RATIOS INTO THE 17-18
G/KG RANGE. FURTHERMORE…A RELATIVELY COOL H5 PROFILE RANGING FROM
-10 DEG C ON THE JAN RAOB TO -8 DEG C AT FFC WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
GROWTH WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER WRN TN EXTENDING ESEWD INTO NRN
GA WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFYING THE 12Z AREA RAOBS IMPLIES LITTLE
MLCINH REMAINS. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER /MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3500-4000 J PER KG OVER MS/AL TO
3000 J PER KG OVER GA/. DESPITE ONLY WEAK TO MODEST WNW TO NNWLY
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW…THE MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY/MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SEVERE MULTICELLS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WATER-LOADED MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE-WIND GUSTS/DAMAGE ARE
LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY CONCENTRATE WIND DAMAGE SWATHS.
The heat is on as the upper ridge continues to hold on for one more day. We are seeing plenty of sunshine and temperatures heading well into the 90s this afternoon, and with dew points in the 70s, it is downright miserable and dangerous out there.
HEAT ADVISORY TODAY: The heat advisory is in effect until 9PM tonight and heat index values are above 100° already late this morning in many locations. For the rest of today and through the evening hours, heat index values will be well over 100° and these could be as high as 110° in some spots. Take it easy out there today!
STORMS TODAY TOO: The only heat relief today will come from showers and storms that are expected to develop. A surface boundary is pushing into and through the state, and with the very hot and unstable air mass in place across the state, we are likely to see some strong to severe storms this afternoon and early evening.
The SPC has upgraded portions of the “marginal risk” to a “slight risk” for severe storms today for the state.
QUICK RADAR CHECK: We are beginning to see the above advertised showers and storms develop and these will continue to expand in coverage and move off towards the south through the state. It will not rain everywhere, just note that where storms develop, they will be packing a punch with lots of lighting, hail, and the greatest concern damaging winds. Main window for stronger storms will come from 2-8PM. As we have seen the past few days, the storms should develop into line as they push south through the state.
WEEKEND HEAT RELIEF: A few lingering showers are possible tomorrow mainly across our southern communities, but through the day a nice surge of drier and cooler air will settle into the state. Temperatures will be cooler, as we are forecasting upper 80s to near 90. The real difference will be noticed in those humidity levels. Lower humidity levels mean more comfortable conditions for the state. Expect mostly sunny weather Saturday and Sunday, with no afternoon showers or storms expected. Nights will be cooler and refreshing with the possibility of cooler spots reaching the 50s early Sunday morning. Enjoy those lower dew points, it could be a while before we see them that low again.
TROPICAL UPDATE: A tropical wave located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms from the northwestern Caribbean Sea through southeastern Mexico. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to proximity to land while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
More sun than clouds today is allowing temperatures to climb and many locations are into the 90s this afternoon. Our winds have become more southerly as well, and that is allowing dew points to climb, meaning more humid conditions.
The rest of today, expect a hot afternoon, with the only heat relief being widely scattered afternoon showers and storms. Don’t count on these, as most of us will be staying dry. A quick look of the radar early this afternoon shows a few showers/storms out there and these are generally drifting southwest to northeast.
Expect a warm and muggy night ahead, with a few lingering showers mainly before midnight, lows in the lower 70s. For tomorrow, a near repeat of today, with highs in the 90s, we should see a few more showers and storms, but overall, a mix of sun and clouds, with hot and muggy conditions.
A very warm and muggy day continues across the state with scattered showers and storms. For the first half of the day, we were mainly cloudy, then early this afternoon more sun peeked through.
Temperatures are being held down today compared to the past few days with lower and mid 80s out there this afternoon, but with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s, it is rather humid.
What you see is what you get the rest of today, showers and storms are possible at just about any time, and they are numerous and scattered in nature. Just be prepared to dodge some rain at times today and during the overnight hours. As we have seen the past few days, storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning. Be weather aware, and we always say, when thunder roars, go indoors.
Sunday is going to be almost identical to today as it should be another relatively wet day for much of the Southeast. The major trough moves slowly across the eastern half of the country. The trough should drag a cold front into the area keeping our chance for showers and storms high once again. Clouds and numerous storms will keep temperatures down once again with highs in the lower 80s.
Severe weather is not expected, but the SPC does have much of the Alabama outlined in a “marginal risk” of severe weather. This is level one of five levels on the risk scale.
We could certainly see a few strong storms with gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning tomorrow, but widespread severe weather is not expected.
We are seeing a few more clouds today and with those clouds, a few light showers are ongoing. These are mainly along or just east of the Interstate 65 corridor, but for the most part are very light.
The clouds and rain are holding temperatures down a bit, with upper 70s, but outside these areas, where there is more sun, temperatures are in the 80s this afternoon.
Tomorrow, we are not expecting as many clouds or showers, so temperatures will likely once again approach the 90s for Central Alabama. Rain chances are very low, but not zero, so don’t be surprised to see a few isolated showers across the Alabama landscape.
WAITING ON BONNIE: Still a tropical depression as of the 1100 AM EDT update. The center of Tropical Depression Two was estimated by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft to be near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 78.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph. This general motion, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, is expected later today and on Sunday as the system nears the coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
Recent data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone remains just below tropical storm strength. However, the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). No impact for Alabama, but weather along the Georgia and Carolina Coast is only going to deteriorate the next 24 hours as the system approaches the coast.
MEMORIAL DAY: Not much change in the overall weather pattern. Monday, there could still be a few isolated showers possible, but many communities will remain dry with a partly sunny day. The high will be close to 90F Monday.
SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: The final two days of the tournament continue at the Hoover Met. Today a few more clouds with temps a little lower, tomorrow for the championship game, more sun is expected with warmer temps. We will continue to mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm today and tomorrow, but rain should pose no big issues. Click Here For Event and Ticket information. .
A frontal boundary continues to slide south through the state, and behind it, drier air is sliding in thanks to an area of high pressure. This high pressure will be the main feature impacting our weather the rest of the weekend and into much of next week.
The clouds from this morning, have given way to more sunshine. With the sunshine, temperatures have been able to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s for most locations this afternoon.
The sky will clear tonight and with the drier air, we are in store for a very nice night. Temperatures will settle down into the mid and upper 50s for most of Central Alabama by tomorrow morning and we can see that on the forecast model output below for 7AM tomorrow morning.
MIDNIGHT SKY SHOW: Tonight, the full Moon gets together with Mars and Saturn to form a bright triangle in the constellation Scorpius. The beautiful midnight encounter is visible around the world, and happens just one week before Mars makes its closest approach to Earth in more than a decade.
SUNNY SUNDAY: A very nice day tomorrow, with ample sunshine and nice temperatures. After starting the day in the 50s, we will see upper 70s and lower 80s. Humidity levels will remain low and overall it will be very comfortable day of weather.
It was a rather chilly start to the day with upper 40s and lower 50s across Central Alabama. This afternoon, we are seeing more sun than clouds, but there are some cumulus and cirrus clouds out there this afternoon.
It is much less humid today as dew points are in the 30s for most us. With the lower humidity values and temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the area this afternoon, it is a pleasant afternoon and overall a very nice day, but almost cool.
Get out there and enjoy it if you can, we are in store for an active weather pattern that will bring showers and storms back in the forecast later this work week.
Monday will be another nice day as we warm up. Morning temperatures will dip into the lower and middle 50s with a few 40s across the northeast part of Alabama. Highs under a partly cloudy sky should move back toward the 80 degree mark.