Author Archive: Ryan Stinnett

Montgomery Television Meteorologist and long time Contributor on AlabamaWX. Stormchaser. I did not choose Weather, it chose Me. College Football Fanatic. @Ryan_Stinnet

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Rainy and Chilly Weekend Weather

| December 3, 2016 @ 1:27 pm

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Clouds are here, and if you look at the radar, it looks like the rain is falling across much of the state, but that is not the case.

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The lower levels of the atmosphere are very dry, and the rain is evaporating before it reaches the surface, but as the rain falls through these dry layers, it is moistening those layers of the atmosphere. That means, if you haven’t seen the rain yet, you are going it before the long. The rain is reaching the surface mainly west of Interstate 65 but will continue to spread east today. It is a rather cool Saturday afternoon with temperatures in the 50s.

Looking towards the west, there is a lot of rain heading our way, and we are in store for a rainy night across North/Central Alabama. It is going to be a nice steady soaking rain through out the night; temperatures will hold in the mid 40s all night, and certainly no threat of severe weather, just some great sleeping weather.

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You’ll certainly want the umbrellas and rain gear close to hand heading out the door tomorrow. Our Sunday will feature clouds, periods of rain, and chilly temperatures. Thankfully no severe weather is expected, and I doubt we will hear much thunder in North/Central Alabama, but there could be some across southern portions of the state. Thunder or not, it will be a rather wet day. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will hold in the lower 50s much of the day, and some spots may sit in the 40s all day.

MORE RAIN AND STORMS: A low pressure system will develop off the Texas coast and will lift north across the southeastern United States, bringing with it another round of strong storms late Monday and into early Tuesday. Now the latest GFS has the low lifting right across Central Alabama, which is not ideal for severe weather for us, but that track of the low, will allow a warm sector to surge north across the state and that will allow for those storms across the state, with the best chance for severe storms over South Alabama. Currently, on their day three convective outlook, the SPC has locations along and south of the U.S. 82 corridor from Tuscaloosa, to Montgomery, to Phenix City in a “marginal risk for severe storms, while the standard “slight risk” covers locations across Southwest Alabama such as Mobile, Gulf Shores, Monroeville, and Evergreen.

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The exact northward extent of the severe weather will depend on how far north the warm, moist air mass makes it inland. The best chance of storms will come Monday night and early Tuesday. We will start to dry out by the time Tuesday evening arrives as the low lifts northeast of the area, and behind it, dry air will be pulled south. Highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the area on Monday, and back up into the lower to mid 60s for Tuesday.

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For much of Alabama, by the time the rain is finished Tuesday evening, rainfall totals for much of the area will range from 2-4 inches, with a few spots perhaps getting more. We need every drop, but unfortunately some flash flooding could be possible with all of the heavy rainfall, but overall, these soaking rains will not end the drought, but should hopefully put a nice dent in the conditions.

Good-Looking November Weekend, but Rain Returns

| November 26, 2016 @ 1:19 pm

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SUN-FILLED SATURDAY: Plenty of sunshine today, but it is cooler for us all. A cool northwest wind continues to blow and that is making it feel cooler as well. Temperatures this afternoon are ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

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COLD TONIGHT: The clear sky tonight will allow our temperatures to settle into the upper 20s and lower 30s for all of us in Central Alabama. That means we are expecting a morning freeze throughout North/Central Alabama.

SUNNY SUNDAY: After the morning chill, we will once again see more sun than clouds, and highs will be able to climb a few degrees warmer and we should see mid-60s through out North/Central Alabama tomorrow. Late tomorrow, our winds will begin to shift out of the south and that will start to transport moisture north out of the Gulf.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AHEAD: Finally, the stuff what we have been needing, RAIN, will return in earnest to Alabama. As we start the new work week, we are in store for multiple rounds of rain. A dynamic storm system will be lifting across the Plains Sunday and Monday, and will swing a front into the Southeast. This frontal boundary, along with a secondary area of low pressure that lifts north out of the Gulf will give us best chances of rain we have seen since summer.

Monday will be a mild/breezy day with rising dew points; the high will be in the low 70s. The first round of rain and storms will push across the Mississippi Valley and be approaching the western portions of the state by mid-afternoon and into Monday night. We will need to monitor this system for severe weather potential, although at the moment it looks like the surface low will be too far north for a classic severe weather event for Alabama, however, a very strong the wind field will be in place, and with the higher dew points returning, we are going to have to watch everything carefully. As of today, no severe weather risk has been issued of Central Alabama, but the SPC has a “marginal risk” into portions of West Alabama, but this is just a small sliver of the state, along and west of U.S. Hwy 43 from Muscle Shoals to Mobile.

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As the line of storms moves into the state a few strong storms are possible, but the line will be weakening as it pushes east through the nighttime hours. Damaging winds look to be the main threat with any of the stronger storms. Ahead of this line, a few showers could break out Monday during the day across the state as moisture increases on the back of a strong low level jet stream out of the Gulf of Mexico.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: We should see a lull in the action as the best dynamics lift well north of the state, but the frontal boundary should stall across Central Alabama. At this time, we expect the rain to diminish during the day Tuesday, with only a few scattered showers possible. Late Tuesday night and into Wednesday, a wave of low pressure is expected to form on the front and lift across Alabama. This low is expected to cause rain to surge northward again. Severe weather is not expected, but of course that all depends on the track of the low, and some strong storms look possible for South Alabama, and we will be monitoring this low as well. The best news is that we are going to see rain Monday and Monday night, then perhaps an even better rain event Tuesday night and Wednesday, and by the time the rain begins to wind down Wednesday night, much of North/Central Alabama should have received 2-3 inches of rain, or maybe even more in spots…Just what the doctor ordered…We still need a lot more rain to bust the drought, but this should be a good start.

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Midday Nowcast: Terrific Tuesday

| November 22, 2016 @ 12:16 pm

After the cold start, it is another day with an abundance of sunshine. There are a few clouds in the sky, but nothing more than those upper-level cirrus clouds that are trying to filter some of the sun, but overall it is sunshine and blue sky across Alabama this afternoon.

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The sunny conditions, along with the very dry conditions, will allow for the air over Alabama to warm rapidly. After the 20s and 30s this morning, we should see many locations in the upper 60s, and a few lower 70s are possible as well.

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The rest of today, we feature the continued mainly clear conditions; these will allow for temperatures to fall back down into the upper 30s and lower 40s overnight, so cold, but definitely not as cold as the past few nights.

For tomorrow, the winds of change begin to blow and clouds will be on the increase. A storm system, which will be responsible for the threat of severe weather today over Eastern Texas and the ARKLATEX, will lift well to the north of Alabama.

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This system will produce our next chance of rain tomorrow. Still not an overly impressive rain producer for Alabama, and like the last few systems, showers will be moving in from the west, but will be diminishing as they move into the drier air that is over the state. Severe weather is not an issue for Alabama, but there may certainly be a few rumbles of thunder over West Alabama. For the rest of us, we will continue to mention a chance of mostly light rain across North and Central Alabama tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Latest model output is now suggesting rain amounts of about 0.10″ for most places, with a few spots seeing 0.20″.

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Definitely not a drought buster, but should be enough to settle the dust in the locations that are fortunate enough to see the wet stuff. While the light rain tomorrow won’t make a dent in the drought, anything we get is certainly welcome. The sky will be generally cloudy tomorrow with a high again in the upper 60s.

THANKSGIVING: For Turkey Day, the system will be pushing away from Alabama so the day will be dry, but there could be a few lingering clouds to start the day, but overall a dry and mild day. Highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s are expected.

WEATHER ON THIS DATE IN 1641: An observer at Boston, MA, recorded a great tempest of wind and rain from the southeast all night, as fierce as a hurricane, and thereupon followed the highest tide which we have seen since our arrival here

Much Colder Today

| November 19, 2016 @ 1:32 pm

What a difference a day makes as the upper 70s and lower 80s from Friday are no more. The cold front came barreling through the state during the overnight hours, and unfortunately most locations did not see much in the way of rain, but the Birmingham Airport officially received 0.01″ of rain around 4AM this morning, which ends the days without any measurable rain at 61 days, which might as well not have fallen, as it impact the drought conditions none.

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The sky is clear, the wind is howling at 10-20 mph with higher gusts, and temperatures are 20-30 degrees cooler today; most locations are going to struggle to make it to 60 this afternoon.

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RED FLAG WARNING: Is in effect through 5 pm this afternoon for dry and breezy conditions for all of Central Alabama. A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions are occurring. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity can contribute to extreme fire behavior.

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FREEZE WARNING: The end of the growing season arrives tonight for the northern third of Alabama, while most of the rest of the state has one more day. Freezing temperatures possible tomorrow morning near and north of Interstate 20. By Monday morning, freezing temperatures are expected across all of Central Alabama.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Alabama will host Chattanooga this evening at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be clear and it will be a cold evening with breezy conditions and temperatures falling through 40s. Take the jackets!

Auburn hosts Alabama A&M tonight at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… Clear and cold there as well as temperatures will be falling from the mid 50s at kickoff, and into the mid 40s by the fourth quarter. Take the jackets!

FOR TONIGHT: With the freeze warning in effect for locations along and north of Interstate 20, go ahead and take precautions for plants and pets. The sky will be clear and the winds will still be blowing from 5-15 mph, which will actually prevent it from getting as cold as it could. We should see a temperatures range from 29-35 degrees tonight.

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COOLER SUNDAY: After the cold start, we are going to warm up some, but despite sunshine in full supply, we should only see highs in the mid 50s and it will not be as windy. Then for Sunday night, this is when we are expecting to experience our coldest night. We project lows in the upper 20s Monday for much of North/Central Alabama, and is why the freeze watch currently in effect for tomorrow night, will be upgraded to a warning tomorrow.

Midday Nowcast: A Few Sprinkles Remain

| November 15, 2016 @ 1:10 pm

How about the rain this morning over portions of Alabama? It sure was a treat for some and there continues to be some returns on the radar now, but as these push slowly southeast they are slowly vanishing from the radar screen.

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The rest of today, the upper-level feature responsible for the clouds and light rain will continue to push off towards the southeast and through the evening hours, the sky will clear as northwesterly flow bring a reinforcing shot of drier air into the state the next few days.

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Temperatures are being held down with upper 50s and lower to mid 60s his afternoon, but through the evening hours, the sky will clear and we will see temps fall back into the 40s for most of us overnight.

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WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Expect a sky full of sunshine, a general warming trend as we are going to see mainly sunny days and clear, chilly nights. For tomorrow, we will see temps climb into the low 70s, and then upper 70s Thursday, and some spots could see 80 degrees Thursday afternoon. Friday looks to be near identical to Thursday with upper 70s and perhaps some low 80s out there, but clouds will be on the increase as a cold front approaches the state.

FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT: A major storm system will move out of the Rockies and into the Northern Plains Friday, with blizzard conditions developing over the Dakotas. A trailing cold front will approach Northwest Alabama Friday night, and that front is expected to bring showers to Alabama late Friday night into early Saturday morning. No drought buster, and rain amounts will be generally under 1/2 inch, but we will take what we get…The main window for rain comes from 9:00 pm Friday through 9:00 am Saturday.

CHILLY WEEKEND WEATHER: Much colder air invades Alabama following the front. The day on Saturday will feature a clearing sky and many spots in North/Central Alabama will struggle to climb out of the 50s for highs. Now on Sunday, expect a blustery and chilly day with lower and mid 50s for highs despite full sunshine. A chilly north breeze of 10-20 mph will make it feel colder. It will easily be the coldest air so far this season; most places will drop into the 20s early Monday morning, which will be that first frost or freeze for many of us this season.

ON THIS DATE IN 2006: An F2 tornado caused severe damage through eastern portions of the city of Montgomery. The tornado damage path was approximately 6.8 miles long and 250 yards wide at its widest point. The tornado touched down approximately 1.4 miles southwest of the Shakespeare Festival and tracked northeastward. The tornado crossed Interstate 85 at Bell Road and continued northeastward to the Atlanta Highway…just west of Taylor Road. Numerous trees were snapped off or downed along the path with minor roof damage to numerous homes. Near the Atlanta Highway…the tornado crossed the A.U.M. ball field complex and struck the Montgomery Postal Processing and Distribution Center and Post Office. The main doors of the post office were blown in and portions of the roof were lifted off to the north. Numerous trees were snapped off at ground level on the south and west sides of the building. A tractor trailer was completely turned around and moved 30 yards and flipped over. Other postal vehicles and cars in the parking lot were moved or received significant damage. Just to the north…the tornado produced major damage to the Fun Zone Skating Rink, where more than 30 preschoolers were playing. Two children suffered injuries but there were no fatalities. This was a large metal building structure which was nearly totally destroyed. Several vehicles were tossed around and significantly damaged or crushed by debris from the building. As the tornado crossed the Atlanta Highway, several metal power poles were either significantly bent or downed. At the Saddleback Ridge Apartment Complex, at least two apartment buildings lost their roofs and portions of the second floor. The tornado continued another 2.25 miles northeastward ending in a field just south of Wares Ferry Road. Six people suffered minor injuries. The tornado touched down at approximately 1025 AM CST and lifted around 1035 AM CST.

Very Nice Sunday Afternoon

| November 13, 2016 @ 2:37 pm

Another day where those thin upper-level cirrus clouds are filtering the sun, but overall, it is another fine fall day.

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Temperatures this afternoon, are a few degrees cooler today compared to yesterday, but we are seeing mid to upper 60s for West Alabama, with lower 60s towards East Alabama.

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BIGGEST FULL MOON IN ALMOST 70 YEARS: On November 14, 2016, the moon will be closer to Earth than it’s been since January 26, 1948. It’ll be a full moon and a supermoon. The moon won’t come this close again until November 25, 2034. That makes upcoming full moon the closest and largest supermoon in a period of 86 years! Get out there and enjoy it!

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MAINLY DRY WEEK: More dry days ahead and with no rain expected, it all comes down to a temperature forecast. The days will feature more sun than clouds, and clear and chilly nights. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s, while 40s are expected each night. Overall, a pretty standard fall forecast.

RAIN IN THE FORECAST: Our next chance of rain comes at the end of this week when a cold front passes through Alabama. Understand this is no “drought buster”, and no really big rain event. But, it is a start. Main window for rain comes from about midnight Friday night through 12:00 noon Saturday. Some thunder is possible, but this is not a severe weather setup, and unfortunately rain amounts should be under 1/2 inch. Any rain we can get will be very beneficial…

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