Author Archive: Ryan Stinnett

Montgomery Television Meteorologist and long time Contributor on AlabamaWX. Stormchaser. I did not choose Weather, it chose Me. College Football Fanatic. @Ryan_Stinnet

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Midday Nowcast: A Tale of Two Air Masses

| August 22, 2016 @ 12:08 pm

The state of Alabama is currently being bisected by a stalled frontal boundary roughly along the U.S. 80 corridor running from Demopolis east to Selma, Montgomery, and Phenix City. Just to the north of this boundary and across South Alabama, it remains rather muggy with dew points in the 70s, however, across northern portions of Alabama, dew points are in 50s and 60s and oh so comfortable.

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The drier air is ever so slowly trying to move south through the state, but it is having a hard time doing so as the upper-level support is lacking. Due to the continue elevated dew points roughly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor, the threat of showers and storms will remain in the forecast for this afternoon. For northern portions of the state, temperatures are in the 70s at midday, while 80s and 90s are widespread for the southern two-thirds of the state.

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Outside early this afternoon we are seeing more sun than clouds, but clouds will continue to increase in coverage the next several hours as those showers and storms start to develop across the state.

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Speaking of those showers and storms, they are beginning to pop-up across the Alabama landscape. As we have seen the past several weeks, storms that develop today are going to produce brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. The majority of today’s activity will be along and south of Interstate 20, however, showers are possible north of there, as far north as the U.S. 278 corridor.

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The rest of today, look for a mix of sun and clouds, with scattered showers and storms that will likely continue at least through the evening hours, before gradually winding down overnight. Lows tonight will be able to get down into the 60s east of Interstate 65, while lower 70s expected west of there. You will notice the slightly direr and less humid air.

More Scattered Storms this Afternoon

| August 21, 2016 @ 1:18 pm

More mugginess today as we are anxiously watching the weak front to our northwest trying to move south. Early this afternoon, the front is located from near Buffalo, New York, southeast into the Tennessee Valley of Alabama. This boundary will continue to sink southward today and overnight, but it is slowing down.

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This will be the focal point for the showers and storms we are and will be seeing out there today and this evening. These are tracking towards the east and will persist into the evening hours. They will produce brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lots of lightning.

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HOW FAR SOUTH WILL FRONT MAKE IT?: The upper-level support for the front will be sliding more east than south, and that will cause the front to stall across Central Alabama tomorrow, and it looks to do that around the Interstate 20 corridor. It is August in Alabama and getting a front to push through the state is very hard. North of the front, expect dry conditions, with humid and scattered showers and storms south of the front tomorrow.

Lots of Lightning with Storms

| August 20, 2016 @ 4:49 pm

Several clusters of showers and storms are moving rapidly across Central Alabama this afternoon. No storms are severe, but these storms are producing gusty winds, intense rainfall, and frequent and dangerous lightning.

The main storms we are watching stretch from Cullman County, back through Walker, Tuscaloosa, Pickens, Sumter, and Greene counties. Some of these could be impacting the Birmingham Metro during the early evening hours.

Additional storms are impacting Clay County, as well as Perry, Bibb, and Dallas counties These will be moving into Chilton County and likely will affect Clanton, and the Interstate 65 corridor.

These storms are allowing temperatures to fall from 80s and 90s, down into the 70s, which is some much appreciated heat relief.

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Active Afternoon Radar

| August 20, 2016 @ 2:40 pm

A very tropical air mass remains in place across Alabama this weekend. Temperatures are in the upper 80s and lower 90s for much of the area. We are seeing a mix of sun and clouds, with numerous showers and a few storms covering the radar map this afternoon.

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Much of this activity is moving towards the east-northeast a fairly quick clip and these showers/storms are producing brief heavy downpours, some gusty winds, and lightning. This activity will continue through the afternoon, evening, and should slowly dissipate during the overnight hours.

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MORE STORMS SUNDAY: The weather will once again be unsettled across the state tomorrow. Sunday will be a day very similar to today as scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected, with more clouds than suns, as we wait on the front approaching from the north. Highs tomorrow will likely be in the upper 80s tomorrow, with some lower 90s across southern communities.

Storms Approaching Birmingham Metro from South

| August 13, 2016 @ 2:57 pm

We are watching a cluster of storms racing towards the north through Central Alabama this afternoon. These storms have a lot of lightning, gusty winds, and very heavy rainfall with them. They will be impacting portions of the Birmingham Metro over the next couple of hours. They are essentially following the Interstate 65 corridor, so travel is likely to be impacted along the Interstate as well as U.S. 31. Locations from Montgomery and Prattville, north through Clanton, Alabaster, Pelham, Brent, and Centreville are being impacted or will be impacted before they track into the southern suburbs of Birmingham and likely into the city.

They are moving very rapidly this afternoon and should only impact locations for about thirty minutes or so. Lightning is the greatest threat with these storms today, and we want to remind folks, if you can hear thunder, you can be struck by lightning…WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.

These showers and storms are providing heat relief as they are cooling temperatures down from the upper 80s and lower 90s ahead of them, to the upper 70s in spots behind them.

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Steamy Summer Saturday

| August 13, 2016 @ 1:04 pm

More sun than clouds for our Saturday and temperatures in many locations this afternoon are in the upper 80s to near the 90° mark. It remains a rather humid day as well.

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We are watching the radar this afternoon as we are seeing a few pockets of convection racing north across the state. Early this afternoon most of this activity is west of Interstate 65, and as of now, just showers.

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There could be a few rumbles of thunder mixed in with these showers as they continue to track through the state and looking across South Alabama, there are a few thunderstorms as well. With the pockets of convection, you can expect some gusty winds as well as brief heavy downpours. Similar to the past several days, shower/storm activity will gradually wind down after sunset.

For the second half of you weekend, expect another rather muggy and hot day with highs climbing into the lower 90s. We will see a mix of sun and clouds, with still the risk of scattered showers and storms. Tomorrow’s rain chances will be in the 20-30% range and what showers and storms that develop are expected during the late morning, afternoon, and evening hours. Most of the day, should be relatively dry.

Strong Storms West of Birmingham

| August 6, 2016 @ 6:26 pm

Tracking several clusters of storms across western portions of Jefferson County, as well as Walker, Fayette, and Tuscaloosa counties. Locations such as Bessemer, Hueytown, Oak Grove, Jasper, Berry, Oakman, Peterson, and Coaling are seeing the most intense activity currently. Also, travel along Interstate 20/59 and Interstate 459 is being impacted.

Storms are not severe, but they are producing a lot of lightning and intense rainfall, as well as window shaking thunder. The good thing is that these storms are providing some heat relief, knocking temperatures from the 90s, down into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

These clusters of storms are generally tracking towards the south, and should continue the next few hours. Most of the thunderstorm activity will begin to slowly wind down after sunset, and all rain should dissipate by 10 or 11PM.

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More Heat and Humidity

| August 6, 2016 @ 2:48 pm

Hazy, hot, and humid weather for another day. Temperatures are well into the 90s along and west of Interstate 65, while a few areas in East Alabama are holding on to upper 80s early this afternoon.

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Nevertheless it is rather muggy out there and heat index values are at or over 100° and some locations are in the heat advisory criteria of 105° or greater. That is why we continue to see a heat advisory in effect for much of Central Alabama.

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We are beginning to see those daily showers and storms develop across the state this afternoon. The general motion of the storms today is once again towards the south. The showers/storms, widely spaced are producing very heavy rainfall, lots of lightning, and gusty winds. These should continue through the afternoon and evening hours, and all activity should wind down after sunset and most of the activity by midnight. If you do see rain today, you could also be one of those spots that see fog develop after midnight.

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FOR SUNDAY: Better rain chances are ahead for tomorrow as a weak shortwave will move across the Southeast. It will be another hot and humid day, but temperatures should be held down into the lower 90s. Expect more in the way of scattered showers and storms tomorrow.

TROPICS HEATING UP: Quickly, Earl is gone and the remnants are fading away over the mountains of Central Mexico. Two areas of unsettled weather the NHC is monitoring for the potential of development the next several days. Feature one is closest to home and is an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some slight development is possible before the system moves inland over the southeastern United States in a couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall over northern Florida is anticipated. The NHC gives this feature a 20% of development the next five days. Feature two is a tropical wave producing disorganized cloudiness and Showers just north of Puerto Rico and the adjacent Atlantic. This activity is expected to move northwestward and northward, and an area of low pressure could form in the Atlantic by the middle of next week between Florida and Bermuda. This feature also has been give a 20% of development from the NHC the next five days.

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Midday Nowcast: Rinse and Repeat Forecast

| July 26, 2016 @ 12:02 pm

Pretty easy forecasting this time of year, as temperatures are very similar each day, and there is nearly always a threat for rain. For today, temperature are heading towards the 90s this afternoon, and overall it is just a hot and humid Tuesday.

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We are seeing plenty of sunshine this afternoon, but we are also seeing clouds on the increase as well.

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At the writing of this forecast, most of Central Alabama is dry, but we note several showers/storms across South Alabama. Through the afternoon and evening hours, we are going to see isolated to scattered showers/storms develop and move southeast to northwest across the state, due to the main area of high pressure to the east of us.

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Much like Monday, nothing too widespread, but there will be a few storms that will produce a lot lightning and intense rainfall and then gradually wind down after daytime heating is loss.

REST OF WORK WEEK: The hot, humid summer weather continues with the daily round of isolated to perhaps scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s degree range each afternoon, while nights will be muggy, with lows in the 70s. To end the work week, the upper ridge weakens and will allow for some troughing over the Southeast. This will allow us to see a gradual increase in the coverage of scattered showers and storms each day, and heat levels a bit lower. Highs should be around the 90 degree mark and we may even see some spots remain in the upper 80s for highs.

AT THE BEACH: A standard summer forecast for the beaches of the Northern Gulf Coast from Dauphin Island east to Panama City. Plenty of sunshine each day, with passing scattered storms from time to time. Highs are in the upper 80s and lower 90s on the beaches, while just inland you can expect low to mid 90s. The sea water temperature early this afternoon at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach is 87.3 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here .

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Strong Storms Over East Alabama

| July 23, 2016 @ 4:46 pm

Several clusters of storms are impacting portions of East Alabama late this afternoon and these storms are meandering about in different directions. The most intense storms currently are affecting portions of Calhoun, Etowah, Cleburne, Blount and Jefferson counties.

No storms are currently severe, but storms are producing tremendous amounts of lightning, torrential tropical downpours, and gusty winds. These storms will continue to next several hours, before winding down with the loss of daytime heating.

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