Another beautiful day for the state of Alabama today. High pressure at the surface is keeping the weather spectacular across Alabama as we enjoy the first third of the Memorial Day weekend. With plenty of sunshine, highs have climbed back into the 80s this afternoon after a couple of nice, cooler days.
For tomorrow, we will begin to see southerly flow start to transport moisture north and we are going to have to introduce the chance of rain mainly over west Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours. Look for another warm day as high will be back into the 80s, and humidity levels will be increasing as well.
The southerly flow over the state continues to bring ample moisture into the state. Uncomfortable and humid conditions continue today as dew points are into the 60s and 70s. Plenty of moisture is in place and we are seeing plenty of showers on the radar this afternoon. The sky is mostly cloudy and with numerous showers and storms across the state. Temperature this afternoon are near 80 degrees for much of Central Alabama.
RADAR CHECK: Much like yesterday, we are seeing a cluster of showers and storms lifting north across the state and many locations will see rain the next several hours. The main activity continues to be across South Alabama, but it is moving north and will be impacting Central Alabama later this evening. Throughout Central Alabama we are seeing showers develop and we should continue to see these increase in coverage the rest of the afternoon. Showers and storms should begin to wind down slowly once the sun sets and daytime heating is loss.
What you see today is what you get tomorrow. Expect a near repeat performance in the weather tomorrow as a moisture-rich atmosphere will allow for passing scattered showers and storms at just about anytime, but with a great coverage during the afternoon and evening. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 80s for most of Central Alabama.
Most locations are seeing mainly sunny conditions this afternoon, but there have been a few blips on the radar in northern Mississippi and these light showers may be able to work their way into extreme north and northwestern Alabama this afternoon. Nearly all of us stay dry today, be there is a slight chance of an isolated shower. We continue to be under a ridge that is allowing our temps to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon. This is certainly the warmest weekend of weather thus far in 2015.
Now to the east, Tropical Storm Ana is now fully tropical as opposed to her sub-tropical characteristics of the last few days. The latest update from the NHC at 100 PM CDT has the center of Tropical Storm Ana located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 78.1 West. Ana is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph. A turn toward the north and north-northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will be very near the coasts of South and North Carolina by tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast as Ana moves over cooler waters close to the coastline overnight. A more rapid rate of weakening will begin after the center crosses the coast. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb or 29.56 inches.
For tomorrow, Mother’s Day will be a terrific day for mom to relax in the air conditioning. We will see another day with a mix of sun and clouds, and after starting the day in the mid to upper 60s, look for a near repeat of today for afternoon highs. We are forecasting highs tomorrow afternoon to climb back into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the state and no rain is expected.
We started the day off chilly with widespread 40s across Central Alabama. As soon as the sun cleared that eastern horizon, temps began their climb. With nothing but blue sky and sunshine, temps have climbed into the 70s this afternoon and it is almost impossible to find a cloud in the Alabama sky. Heading out and about this evening and overnight, once the sun sets the temps will be dropping through the 60s and into the 50s overnight and the sky will remain clear, but overall it will be a excellent evening for anything you may have planned.
There may be a little race in East Alabama tomorrow. Actually the past several days have been ramping up to the big GEICO 500 tomorrow at the Talladega Superspeedway. Once again, there will be nothing but sunshine and blue sky tomorrow. It will be a cool start once again, with upper 40s and lower 50s expected, but those temps will rapidly climb to the 80s by the afternoon. I am urging everyone to stay hydrated as well as take plenty of sunscreen heading to the race tomorrow. But other than the threat for sunburn, there will be no other weather woes and humidity levels will remain low.
Though it remains cloudy, gray, and cool today, we are not seeing much in the way of rain across the state this afternoon, but of course that will be changing as rain and storms will return to the state as early as this evening. Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 60s and lower 70s for most of Central Alabama. The SPC does have much of the southern two-thirds of the state outlined in a “marginal” risk for severe weather today, notice the blue line in the map below. Areas along and south of a line from Fayette to Birmingham to Talladega are included in this risk and this will be for storms that arrive late tonight into the pre-dawn hours.
I want to say first off that there is a lot of uncertainty with both rounds of potential storms we could see. The first round will come overnight tonight. Model data suggests showers and storms will begin developing across Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and this activity will be heading towards Central Alabama during the overnight hours, with the main time frame being from around 12 a.m. until 8 a.m. tomorrow. We will see more of a heavy rain event with limited instability, but there will be still be the threat of storms that will bring with them the threat of hail and strong gusty winds, and while the tornado threat is very low, it is not zero.
However, we do note there is a large expanse of showers and storms across the Northern Gulf of Mexico and these could possibly be impeding our threat of strong storms during the overnight period as the flow from the Gulf of Mexico is blocked. Of course we are watching everything closely, but this ongoing activity could very much benefit us in Central Alabama. We are still going to forecast rain and storms this evening and overnight. What activity we see develop should be pushing out of the area during the late morning hours tomorrow and we should see a break in the action for most of Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours.
As we look at the latest day 2 convective outlook just issued from the SPC, it shows the entire state of Alabama is included in the “slight” risk for severe weather on Sunday. This is for what could potentially develop late Sunday and lasting into the pre-dawn hours Monday. This second round will be the one that we will have to watch very carefully as this is when the best dynamics will be approaching the area with the upper trough over the southern Plains. While it will be slowly weakening, the air will be more unstable, shear values and lapse rates suggest that some of the storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible.
We are continuing to monitor the situation carefully, and we are going to urge everyone to stay weather aware the next 48 hours, especially since the main threat for storms appears to be during the overnight hours; make sure you have ways to get and receive warnings. Always prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and expect surprises when it comes to thunderstorms in Alabama.
The front has pushed well into South Alabama today. In its wake, plenty of sunshine, slightly cooler temps, and much drier air. Humidity levels are very low and it is feeling very nice on this April Saturday. Any plans you have will be A OKAY when it comes to weather. This afternoon, most locations are sitting in the 70s. I highly recommend everyone getting out and enjoying this terrific weather.
For tonight, expect a clear and cool night as temps settle back down into the lower to mid 50s, and there will even be some 40s in Northeast Alabama. Heading into our Sunday, most of Alabama should be dry, especially for North-Central Alabama. However, our winds will be shifting back out of the south, and moisture will be returning. That means clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon hours, and a shower could move up here from the south Sunday night as moisture returns. I think for the most part, it will be a very nice day, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
The clouds from this morning continue to push south and we are seeing nothing but severe clear conditions with an abundance of sunshine this afternoon. Hard to find cloud in the sky, but it is noticeably cooler, with most locations in the mid to upper 60s across Central Alabama. Tonight, with the clear sky, look for temps to drop quickly after sunset, and we should see widespread upper 30s and lower 40s for much of Central Alabama, and even the threat of some frost in northeastern Alabama.
For our Easter Sunday, it will be a chilly start to the day, so if heading out to any sunrise services, be sure to take the jackets. However, we will see an abundance of sunshine, with dry conditions, expect plenty of sunshine and afternoon highs will climb towards the 70 degree mark. Any egg hunts planned for tomorrow afternoon will have ideal weather conditions.
AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL AND NRN MS…SRN TN…ERN AND SRN AR…NE LA
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032057Z – 032230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT
SUMMARY…AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL MS NEWD
ACROSS NW AL INTO SRN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN ERN AND SRN AR. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION…LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
ACROSS WRN TN AND ERN AR WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F. AN AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT IN THE SFC WIND FIELD FROM NEAR
JACKSON MS NEWD ACROSS NW AL WHERE CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE
LAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NE AR AND DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PARTIAL CLEARING
ON SATELLITE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR
1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT…EVIDENT
ON THE JACKSON MS AND MEMPHIS TN WSR-88D VWPS…SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS…LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
AL WHERE THE HUNTSVILLE AL WSR-88D VWP SHOWS A CURVED HODOGRAPH.